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研究生: 謝宜玲
Yi-Ling Hsieh
論文名稱: 共變異數風險與價格異常現象之分析:台灣產業實證研究
An Analysis of Covariance Risk and Pricing Anomalies: An Empirical Examination in Taiwanese Industry
指導教授: 林丙輝
Bing-Huei Lin
口試委員: 徐中琦
Shyu, Jonchi
洪茂蔚
Hung, Mao-Wei
張傳章
Chuang-Chang Chang
黃彦聖
Huang, Yen Sheng
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2005
畢業學年度: 93
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 50
中文關鍵詞: 公司大小條件共變異數帳面價值對市值比動能雙變量GARCH
外文關鍵詞: 1) model, BI-GARCH (1, conditional covariance, momentum, book-to-market equity ratio effect
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根據Bollerslev, Engle and Wooldridge (1988)的BI-GARCH (1, 1)模型,本研究探討公司特徵及超額報酬與共變異數矩陣之關係。而許多的研究主要著重在公司特徵與報酬的線性關係上,少有研究是將重心放在其二階動差之關係。然而,在資產評價的過程中,波動性是個不可忽略的重要因素。本研究分別以十八個產業收益率以及五個因子來探討公司特徵與報酬之共變異數的關聯,而五個因子分別為:市場報酬超過30天期商業本票報酬、公司大小、帳面價值對市值比以及兩個動能因子。因此,藉由實證分析我們得到以下結果:(1)資產報酬之條件變異數矩陣是具有高度自我相關性的。(2)實證結果顯著拒絕共變異數矩陣不隨時間變動。(3)資產的超額報酬會受到條件變異數之顯著影響。


Based on Bollerslev, Engle and Wooldridge’s (1988) BI-GARCH (1, 1) model, this study investigates the premium associated with firm characteristics related to the covariance matrix of returns. While literature primarily focuses on the first moment of returns, very little is known about their relation to the second moment of returns. However, as everyone knows, the volatilities also play a vital role in asset pricing theory. We employ 18 industry indexes and five well-known factors which are SMB, HML, PR1YR, IM, and market return in excess of the commercial paper rate to analyze how the premium associated with firm characteristics related to the covariance matrix of returns. As a consequence, we provide the following general results. First, the conditional covariance matrix of the assets returns is strongly autoregressive. Second, the data clearly reject the covariance is constant over time. Moreover, the expected risk premia for the assets are significant influenced by the second moment of the returns.

Content CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION1 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW3 2.1 PRICING ANOMALIES3 2.1.1 SIZE EFFECT3 2.1.2 BOOK-TO-MARKET EQUITY RATIO EFFECT4 2.1.3 FF THREE FACTOR MODEL5 2.1.4 MOMENTUM7 2.2 TIME-VARYING CONDITIONAL COVARIANCE8 CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY11 3.1 PORTFOLIO FORMATION11 3.1.1 THE SIZE-B/M PORTFOLIO11 3.1.2 THE MOMENTUM PORTFOLIO12 3.2 STATIONARY13 3.2.1 DF (DICKEY-FULLER) TEST13 3.2.2 ADF (AUGMENT DICKEY-FULLER) TEST14 3.3 GARCH MODEL14 3.3.1 THE GARCH( P, Q ) PROCESS15 3.3.2 ESTIMATION OF THE GARCH REGRESSION MODEL15 3.4 MULTIVARIATE GARCH MODEL17 3.4.1 THE VECH MODEL17 3.4.2 THE DIAGONAL VECH MODEL18 3.5 EMPIRICAL MODEL19 CHAPTER 4 EMPIRICAL RESULTS AND ANALYSES21 4.1 DATA21 4.1 STATIONARY22 4.2 THE EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF BIVARIATE GARCH ( 1,1)24 CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTION46 REFERENCE48 LIST OF TABLES TABLE 4-1 THE DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS AND ADF TEST STATISTICS23 TABLE 4-2 THE CONDITIONAL COVARIANCE BETWEEN INDUSTRY AND RM-RF26 TABLE 4-3 THE CONDITIONAL COVARIANCE BETWEEN INDUSTRY AND SMB30 TABLE 4-4 THE CONDITIONAL COVARIANCE BETWEEN INDUSTRY AND HML34 TABLE 4-5 THE CONDITIONAL COVARIANCE BETWEEN INDUSTRY AND PR1YR38 TABLE 4-6 THE CONDITIONAL COVARIANCE BETWEEN INDUSTRY AND IM42 TABLE 4-7 THE NUMBER OF SIGNIFICANT PARAMETERS.45

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