本論文主要在探討計量經濟模型在營建管理的運用，探討兩岸經濟互動及社會政治事件對臺灣營建產業之衝擊。首先選取佔營建工程中主要材料成本的鋼料價格作為變數，利用共整合分析與誤差修正模型分析中國大陸與臺灣兩個鋼料市場鋼價的動態關係，由於過去的研究著重於單一市場（變數）本身價格的短期預測，以致營建成本控制決策時，忽略了與其他市場的長期關係和影響。本研究利用結構改變檢定、共整合分析，誤差修正模型以及Granger Causality因果關係檢定，分析自1995年至2004年間臺灣與大陸兩個市場鋼料價格之關係。研究結果顯示，兩個鋼料市場除具有長期均衡之共整合關係外，亦具短期雙向之Granger Causality之因果關係，且大陸鋼料市場結構轉變早於臺灣鋼料市場，具有價格發現的功能。
其次本文探討社會政治的不確定性對於營建業的衝擊。與過去的研究均著重於國家經濟與營建相互依賴模型之建立不同，本研究運用ARJI模型（Auto Regressive Jump Intensity Model）探討不確定事件發生時對營建業之影響。研究結果顯示，當發生社會政治事件時，會影響營建指數因而產生價格波動的行為，反應不確定事件對營建業具有短期衝擊影響。
研究結果可幫助政府事先採行相關因應政策如：關稅障礙，反傾銷政策等措施防止鋼料市場價格過渡波動，營建廠商提前或延後購料以避免價格波動導致獲利之損失。
本研究以計量經濟之共整合分析、誤差修正模型與ARJI model 等方法運用在營建管理上有關經濟、社會、政治事件的衝擊分析，有實質上的應用價值。

This dissertation primarily studies the application of econometric models in construction management. Firstly, co-integration and error correction models are used to analyze “Dynamic Relationship of Steel Prices Between Mainland China and Taiwan”. These two models are used in that price variation is a major factor to consider with respect to cost control decisions in the construction industry. Previous research has focused on the short-term price prediction of a single market, and has neglected the influence of other markets and the long-term relationship between the two markets. The econometric methods of structural break test, co-integration analysis, and Granger Causality test are used to examine the dynamic short-term and long-term relationships of steel prices in two different markets (Taiwan and Mainland China) over the period of 1995 to 2004. The price of steel in Mainland China has the leading price discovery function because of the following findings: The structural changes in the Mainland China steel market lead the Taiwan steel market by half a year; these two steel markets are found to be co-integrated in a long-term equilibrium relationship; and the result of the Granger causality test suggests bi-directional causality between these two markets. These findings can help the government apply policies in advance, such as raising tariffs and pursuing antidumping measures, in order to prevent excessive price fluctuations in the steel market. Furthermore, construction firms can preorder or postpone the purchase of materials to preempt profit loss resulting from price fluctuations.
Secondly, this dissertation focused on “The Impacts of Sociopolitical Instability on Construction Dimension”. This focus differs from that in the existing literature, which almost always focuses on establishment of models of interdependence between the construction sector and the performance of the national economy. Instead, this paper looks at the financial market using an autoregressive conditional jump intensity model (ARJI) model that has been adopted to investigate the impacts of various unpredictable events upon the construction sector. In all cases, the news arrival process affects price movements. The essential dissimilarities in the fundamental characteristics of the market have to be considered when market indices are studied.
Not only the dependence in the arrival process governing jump events in a discrete-time setting has been explored, but also the behavior of the fundamental properties of structure the structure index, during the periods of distinct events, is studied as well. The dynamics of volatility are affected by a time-varying rate of jump arrival, stochastic jump size, and volatility clustering. The results indicate that acquisition announcements are perceived as a discrete sudden shock by the market, although the market efficiency hypothesis still holds.

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