建設公司在取得土地後，常會採取延遲開發策略以獲得較高之投資報酬。因而許多研究皆採用延遲選擇權評估建築投資之延遲開發策略，但在建築投資之延遲開發策略中，決策者在未來不僅可以選擇執行開發專案也可選擇轉售專案土地，且隨著延遲時間的增加將面臨資訊成本增加之壓力。因此，若僅採用延遲選擇權評估建築投資之延遲開發策略，將會忽略放棄專案而產生的策略價值。針對這樣的情況，本研究提出一個延遲開發評估模式，該模式考量延遲專案後，開發專案價值與放棄專案價值(亦專案土地價值)隨時間變化之特性，令其符合相依幾何布朗尼運動，且將資訊成本加入開發與放棄專案之執行價格，以反應出延遲專案時間長短所需付出的代價，進而評估出延遲專案之擴張淨現值及成功機率(延遲專案後效益值大於零之機率)。最後，經由實證分析結果顯示，本模式可以評估在各延遲時間長度下之專案期望效益值，也能提供各延遲時間長度下之專案成功機率，可作為建設公司評估延遲開發策略之有效分析工具。

When construction companies to purchased land. Construction companies often taken to delay the development of strategies for obtain a higher return of investment. Thus, many researches used the option to defer evaluating this strategy. But in the strategy of defer development, decision maker can not only choose development of the project but also choose abandon the project. And with the delay time increases the information costs will be increases. Therefore, if only use option to defer evaluated the strategy of defer development, will ignore strategic value of abandon the project.
For this situation, the study proposed a model for evaluating defer development of real estates. This model considers when decision maker delay the decision of project. The value of abandon project (Land's value) and the value of develop project will be changed over time. Thus, both the value of abandon project and d the value of develop project follows correlative geometric brown motion. In addition, the model can considers delay the decision of project need to pay the information cost. To reflect the delay time can impact the value of delay strategy. And then the model can evaluate the expanded net present value of delay strategy and the probability of the value is greater than zero. Finally, through empirical analysis, this model can be used as construction companies’ analysis tool for evaluating delay the development of strategies

1. 黃明達、方炤琮，「建築投資作業系統之初步研究」，營建工程技術，第十五卷，第179-203頁 (1992) 。
2. 張金鶚，「房地產投資與市場分析理論與實務－上、中、下篇」初版，華泰文化事業有限公司，(2003)。
3. 林左裕，「不動產投資管理」，智勝文化出版，(2007) 。
4. 楊世名，「建設公司土地開發投資實務之探討」，碩士論文，國立高雄應用科技大學土木工程系，高雄(2005)。
5. 田耀遠，「建築投資土地開發風險管理架構之規劃」，中國科技大學土木與防災應用科技研究所，(2009) 。
6. D. Hertz, "Risk Analysis in Capital Investment," Harvard Business Review, pp. 95-106. (January-February 1964)
7. J. Magee, "How to Use Decision Trees in Capital Investment," Harvard Business Review (September-October 1964).
8. J. Hodder and H. Riggs, "Pitfalls in Evaluating Risky Projects," Harvard Business Review, pp. 128-135. (January-February 1985)
9. J. Hodder, "Evaluation of Manufacturing Investments: A Comparison of U.S. and Japanese Practices." Financial Management, pp. 17-24. (Spring 1986)
10. Myers, Stewart C., “Determinants of corporate borrowing,” Journal of Financial Economics, Vol.5, No.2, p147-175. (November, 1977)
11. Trigeorgis, L. and S. P. Manson, “Valuing Managerial Flexibility,” Mildland Corporate Finance Journal, Vol.5, No.1, p14-21. (1987)
12. Trigeorgis, L., “A Log-transformed Binomial Numerical Analysis Method for Valuing Complex Multi-Option Investment,” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol.26, p309-326 (1991)
13. Trigeorgis, “Real Option and Interactions with Financial Flexibility,”Financial Management, Vol.22, No.3, p.65-77. (1993)
14. Smit, Han T.J.; Ankum, L.A. , ”A Real Options and Game-Theoretic Approach to Corporate Investment Strategy Under Competition.“,The Journal of the Financial Management Association, Vol. 22 Issue 3, p241-250, (1993)
15. Dixit, A. K. & R.S. Pindyck, “The Option Approach to Capital Investment,” Harvard Business Review, Vol.73, No.3, p105-115. (1995)
16. Copeland, T., “The Real Options Approach to Capital Allocation,” Strategic Finance, pp.33-37. (2001)
17. Tom Copeland, Keith M Howe., ”Real options and strategic decisions” Strategic Finance, Vol. 83, Iss. 10; p.8 (2002)
18. Mustafa Mesut Kayali.,”Real Options as a Tool for Making Strategic Investment Decisions”Journal of American Academy of Business, Cambridge, Vol. 8, Iss.1; p. 282 (2006)
19. Inass El Farissi, Jean-Michel Sahut, Mondher Bellalah.,”Evaluation of Real Options with Information Costs”International Journal of Business.,Vol.13, Iss.1; p. 1(2008)
20. Yu-Lin Huang, Chai-Chi Pi,” Valuation of multi-stage BOT projects involving dedicated asset investments: a sequential compound option approach” Construction Management and Economics,Vol.27; p.653 (2009)
21. 徐守德，「投資計畫評估-選擇權評價理論之應用」，管理評論，第十七卷，第三期，p1~25，民國八十七年(1998) 。
22. 沈勁利，「彈性決策評估模式之研究-以營建管理相關課題為例」，博士論文，國立台灣大學土木工程研究所未出版，(1999) 。
23. 顏錫銘、吳明政，「創業投資公司投資案價值的評估-採用多重選擇權評價方法」，科技管理學刊第六卷，第ㄧ期，p103-130，民國九十年(2001)。
24. 余尚武、邱雪娥，「BOT專案評價決策支援系統－實質選擇權之應用」，中華管理學報，第四卷，第三期，頁1-22，民國92年。
25. Titman, Sheridan June, “Urban Land Prices under Uncertainty,” The American Economic Review, Vol.75, No.3, p505~514 (1985)
26. Williams Joseph T. June, “Real estate development as an option,” The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol.4, No.2, p191-208. (1991)
27. Quigg, Laura June, “Empirical Testing of Real Option-Pricing Models,” The Journal of Finance, Vol. XLVIII, No.2, p621~640 (1993)
28. Capozza, D.R. and Li, Y., “Optimal Land Development Decisions,” Journal of Urban Economics, Vol.51, No.1, pp.123-142 (1994)
29. Grenadier, Steven R. December, “The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets,” The Journal of Finance, Vol. LI, No.5, p1653~1679 (1996)
30. Katia Rocha, Luciana Salles, Francisco Augusto Alcaraz Garcia, Jose A. Sardinha, Jose P. Teixeira, “Real estate and real options-A case study,” Emerging Markets Review, Vol. 8, p67-79. (2007)
31. 蔡進國，「實質選擇權在土地評價上之應用－傳統評估方法與實質選擇權法之分析比較」，台灣大學財務金融研究所未出版碩士論文，民國86年。
32. 陳奉瑤，「可更新土地開發價值之研究台灣土地研究」，第六捲，第一期，第1-16頁，民國91年。
33. 章定煊、張金鶚，「上市櫃建設公司土地開發時機與市場風險關聯性之研究」，中華民國住宅學會第12屆論文集，頁279-287，民國92年。
34. 梁仁旭，「土地選擇權時間價值比之研究」，都市與計畫，第三十二卷，第四期，p371~286，民國九十四年(2005)。
35. 梁仁旭、陳奉瑤，「以選擇權觀點探討土地開發分析法之運用」，土地經濟年刊，第十五期，p1~13，民國九十六年(2007)
36. 顏錫明，「實質選擇權」，華泰書局，民國九十二年(2003)