中國具有極大的住宅市場需求與獲利機會，但是對國外的投資者而言，由於不熟悉當地住宅市場特性而衍生高度的投資風險。本研究為瞭解中國住宅專案投資的根源問題，從銷售的觀點出發，結合模糊邏輯及德菲法發展一套可預估銷售率的模糊邏輯推論系統(FLIS) ，此評估模式可提供國外投資者進入中國住宅營造市場做為事前可行性評估的依據。 此外，本文同時提出AND/OR logic gate 模式的觀念，讓已知的專家知識內涵，可經由計算的方式轉換為FLIS所需的法則, logic gate 模式有利建模過程對IF-THEN 法則的分析，檢討及有利日後的修改與維修。

There is a large demand for and a large profit potential in the Chinese housing market. However, foreign investors still suffer high risk because they are unfamiliar with the complexities of this enormous market. This paper presents the issues associated with housing sales in the People’s Republic of China and the applications of Fuzzy Logic and Delphi Method to the prediction of sales performance in China’s housing. Furthermore, the study presents the concept of an AND/OR logic gate based model, so that expert knowledge can be converted through computation into the needed rules for decision making related to housing sales performance prediction. The logic gate model is useful for ‘IF-THEN’ rule analysis, monitoring during the model building and amendment process, and in model maintenance in the later stages of its application. The aim of the described model is to provide a computer-based decision support tool for foreign investors and contractors in evaluating beforehand the business feasibility of entering the Chinese housing market.

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