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研究生: 李品毅
Pin-Yi Lee
論文名稱: 以平行計算加速相關性模擬之誤差校正演算法-以估價排程為例
Using parallel programming paradigms to reduce errors of correlated simulation in estimation and scheduling
指導教授: 楊亦東
I-Tung Yang
口試委員: 楊智斌
Jyh-Bin Yang
陳柏翰
Po-Han Chen
謝佑明
Yo-Ming hsieh
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工程學院 - 營建工程系
Department of Civil and Construction Engineering
論文出版年: 2011
畢業學年度: 99
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 105
中文關鍵詞: 相關係數矩陣相關係數叢集電腦平行計算
外文關鍵詞: correlation matrix
相關次數: 點閱:634下載:5
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  • 營建工程之成敗可以以工期、成本和品質三項因子作為衡量。由於工程的品質標準於合約簽訂時已經明確規範,所以如何規劃工程及控制成本就成為一個專案工程中的重點。

    營建工程之中,各作業時間及成本之間可能存在相關性,如作業時間延遲而造成成本增加,因此忽略作業時間與成本之相關性,可能會導致錯誤的評估。因此必須將作業之間的相關性進行量化,作為評估之依據,在確定作業之間的相關性及相關係數後,再使用相關性模擬NORmal To Anything (NORTA)及Iman and Conover(IC)來進行成本預估與工期排程。但使用NORTA及IC進行相關性模擬時必須使用Cholesky分解,但如果遭遇原始相關係數矩陣為非正定特徵值為負的情況下,Cholesky分解後會產生虛數導致相關性模擬無法繼續進行下去,雖然已經有學者提出將矩陣修正為正定之方法,但經過正定化的矩陣將會偏離原本相關係數矩陣,造成成本及工期時間的預估錯誤。

    因此,本研究將利用質群演算法搜尋一個正定且近似原始之相關係數矩陣,藉此校正因正定化矩陣所產生的誤差。另外,由於無論是演算法或者相關性模擬都必須耗費大量的時間進行運算,因此本研究也將使用電腦叢集,控制計算核心之溝通開發平行計算策略,以降低系統計算時間。於最後並將本研究所提出之架構應用於實務案例之上,以瞭解其應用可能。其結果驗證本研究之架構可有效校正誤差。


    The success of a construction project can be determined by aspects of its scheduling , costs and quality. Its quality standards have already been specified the moment the contract is signed. Therefore, how to plan the schedule and control the costs have become an important issue in project management.
    In a construction project individual operations often have some correlation with one another. For example, the delay in operation time will cause the costs to increase.However, when material cost increases,it influences the costs of all the related activities. Therefore, if the correlation between time and cost is ignored, there is a possibility in giving a inaccurate evaluation.
    It is necessary to quantify the correlations between operations to obtain more accurate estimation. fter the correlations are determined,they can be used o conduct simulations through NORmal To Anything (NORTA) and Iman and Conover(IC) to develop a cost estimation or schedule prediction.During the process,Cholesky factorization is needed to conduct a correlation simulation.But in situations when the original correlation matrix is not positive definite,the Cholesky factorization will generate imaginary roots,thus causing the simulation to fail.Evan thought many scholars have already presented methods to adjust the correlation matrix,the modified matrix causes inaccuracy is cost estimale and schedule prediction.
    Therefore, this study uses particl swarm optimizstion (PSO)to search for a feasible correlation matrix, which after correlation simulation will lead to minimum error.Since PSO and cooelation simulation are both computational expensive,this study investigates the use of a computer cluster and three parallel progrmming strategies in reducing computatial time.

    第一章 緒論 1.1 研究動機與目的 1.2 研究方法與流程 1.3 論文架構 第二章 文獻回顧 2.1 營建工程之進度排程與成本預估 2.1.1 營建工程之進度排程 2.1.2 營建工程之成本預估 2.2 作業時間不確定性成因 2.2.1 作業本質 2.2.2 作業前後關係 2.2.3 人員特性 2.2.4 作業環境及氣候 2.3 營建工程成本不確定性 2.3.1 原物料價格波動 2.3.2 原油造成之價格波動 2.3.3 通貨膨脹 2.3.4 運輸成本 2.3.5 貸款之利率 2.4 相關係數與相關性模擬文獻 2.4.1 相關係數 2.5 小結 第三章 研究方法 3.1 機率分布理論介紹 3.2 機率分布之選定 3.2.1 成本機率分布選定 3.2.2 時間機率分布選定 3.3 NORTA 3.4 Cholesky分解 3.5 電腦叢集 3.5.1電腦叢集硬體與軟體 3.5.2 MPI平行函式庫 3.6 平行效能評估 3.6.1 平行加速度與平行效率 3.6.2 影響平行效能的因素 3.7小結 第四章 理論及模式介紹 4.1 研究架構 4.2 Iman and Conover 4.3轉換為正定矩陣 4.3問題定義 4.4質群演算法 4.4.1質群演算法之模式 4.5平行策略與傳遞方式 4.5.1主從式傳遞方式 4.5.2島嶼式傳遞方式 4.5.3滲透式傳遞方式 4.6小結 第五章 案例實證與結果比較 5.1成本估算相關性模擬案例 5.1.1材料成本之機率分布與相關係數矩陣 5.1.2模擬結果 5.1.3模式驗證 5.1.4成本案例分析結果 5.2時間排程相關係數模擬案例 5.2.1工程時間之機率分布與相關係數矩陣 5.2.2模擬結果 5.2.3時間案例分析結果 5.3比較三種平行策略 5.3.1評估方式 5.3.2結果比較 5.4結論 第六章 結論與未來展望 6.1總結 6.2未來展望 參考文獻

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