研究生: |
林昌燿 CHANG-YAO LIN |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
應用吉尼係數測量股票籌碼集中度:建構台灣證券市場交易策略 Applying Gini Coefficient to Measure Stock Concentration:Construction of Taiwan Securities Market Trading Strategy |
指導教授: |
繆維中
Wei-Chung Miao |
口試委員: |
周恆志
Heng-Chi Chou 劉代洋 Day-Yang Liu 繆維中 Wei-Chung Miao |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 財務金融研究所 Graduate Institute of Finance |
論文出版年: | 2017 |
畢業學年度: | 105 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 115 |
中文關鍵詞: | 吉尼係數 、技術分析 、向量自我迴歸 、共整合 |
外文關鍵詞: | Gini coefficient, Technical analysis, Vector Auto-Regression model, Co – integration |
相關次數: | 點閱:435 下載:10 |
分享至: |
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
吉尼係數(Gini Coefficient)是一種用來衡量集中度的方法,在經濟學裏通常用來專指「所得分配的集中度」,本論文利用計算吉尼係數方法來統計台灣所有證券商的分點進出明細,得出樣本個股每日的吉尼係數差值,再與樣本個股的價格與股價報酬率進行基本迴歸模型分析與進階向量自我迴歸(VAR)模型分析,另外將吉尼係數差值作累積得出吉尼係數線,與股價作共整合(co-integration)的檢定,研究探討個股吉尼係數的變化是否與個股的股價報酬率和與變異有明顯的連動關係。基於上述結果,進一步利用這些連動關係與特徵現象來設計個股的交易模型,實證結果證實在加入交易成本後,投資績效仍顯著優於大盤指數績效。
Gini coefficient is a way to measure the degree of stock concentration. In economics, it is usually used to measure the dispersion of income distribution. This thesis uses Gini coefficient to calculate stock concentration from all the transactions in Taiwan stock market. Analyses of basic regression model and more advanced vector auto-regression (VAR) model were carried out to capture the relation between stock concentration and stock price for the sample stocks. Through the co-integration analysis, we explore whether there is a connection between the stock price movement and its cumulative Gini coefficient. Based on the relations observed from preceding analysis, we develop our trading models for the individual constituent stocks from popular ETFs in Taiwan stock market. The back testing results show that the trading strategies based on our models perform better than the Taiwan stock market index as well as the related ETFs.
中文參考資料
1.陳旭昇(2013),「時間序列分析 _總體經濟與財務金融之應用」,第二版。
2.黃建勳(2012),「台灣股票籌碼集中度指標與價之間的動態關係研究-以週轉率和公司特徵觀點探討」,台灣大學經濟研究所碩士論文。
3.黃龍格(2013),「如何選取具共整合效應資產進行配對交易的研究」,高雄大學統計研究所碩士論文。
4.楊奕農(2017),「時間序列分析_經濟與財務上之應用」,第三版。
5.楊踐為、李家豪和類惠貞(2007),「應用時間序列分析法建構台灣證券市場之預測交易模型」,中華管理評論學報,第10卷第3期。
6.謝鴻安(2014),「三大法人籌碼面預測臺灣加權指數與台股期貨-倒傳遞類神經網路與計量方法之應用」,高雄應用科技金融資訊研究所碩士論文。
7.鍾惠民、周賓凰和孫而音(2014),「財務計量EViews的運用」,修訂版。
8.羅君昱(2006),「台灣股票市場執行統計套利之可行性分析」,政治大學經營管理碩士學程論文。
英文參考資料
1.Burton G, Malkiel(1973).“A Random Walk Down Wall Street.”,W.W. Norton & Co.
2.Dickey,D.A. and Fuller,W.A.(1979),“Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root”,Journal of the American Statistical Association,74, 427-431.
3.Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A.(1981),“Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”,Econometrica, 49,1057-1072.
4.Engle,R.F. and C.W.J. Granger(1987).“Cointegration and Error Correction:Representation,Estimation and Testing”,Econometrica,55, 251-276.
5.Fama,E.F.(1970).“Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work”,Journal of Finance, 25, 383-417.
6.García,B.Q. Gaytán,J.C.T., & Wolfskill,L.A.(2012).“The role of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market.” Global Journal of Business Research, 6(3),17-22.
7.Granger Clive W.J. and Paul Newbold.(1974).“Spurious Regressions in Econometric Model Specification”,Journal of Econometrics ,2,111-120.
8.Granger Clive W.J.(1969).“Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods”,Econometrica ,37,424-438.
9.Lui,K.M., & Hu,L.(2012).“Does a generic price pattern exist? An alternative approach to technical analysis.”,Journal of Investing, 21(3), 69-77.
10.Metghalchi, M., & Garza-Gomez, X.(2013).“The use of technical trading rules to predict overall stock price movements: A study on share prices on the Irish stock exchange”,International Journal of Management,30(2),678-691.
11.Phillips, P.C.B. Perron,P.(1988).“Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”,Biometrika ,75,335-346.
12.Pring, M.J. (1991).“Technical analysis: Explained.”,McGraw-Hill Co.
13.Said, S.E. Dickey, D.A. (1984).“Testing for Unit Roots in Autoregressive-Moving Average Models of Unknown Order.”,Biometrika ,71,599-607.
14.Sims,C.A.(1980).“Macroeconomics and Reality”,Econometrica,48, 1-48.
15.Zvi Bodie,Alex Kane,Alan J. Marcus.“Investments”,10th Edition. McGraw-Hill Co.