大地工程中有許多的土壤性質參數，其中有些與大地工程系統之穩定性有很密切的關係，像是砂土摩擦角、黏土不排水剪力強度，這些土壤參數可藉由實驗室試驗或現地試驗量測而得，更或者是透過經驗公式轉換後取得，然大地工程中有許多的不確定性，使得這些量測資料的準確性大打折扣，但若能有效運用所有能用的土壤參數，使它們能互相佐證，應該能夠降低不確定性。本研究嘗試將大地工程經驗公式以及許多筆土壤參數試驗資料做整合，並藉由貝氏分析估算摩擦角或不排水剪力強度之機率分布，期望能降低估算結果之不確定性。

In recent years, geotechnical engineers have paid much attention on reliability-based design. The probability density functions (PDFs) of the uncertain soil parameters are required for the reliability-based design. Once these PDFs are obtained, reliability analysis can be conducted, and reliability-based design can be achieved. Among the soil parameters, some of them play important roles in geotechnical design; we call these parameters as “key parameters”, e.g. friction angle of sand and undrained shear strength of clay. It is essential to obtain the PDFs of the key parameters for reliability-based design. How to obtain those PDFs based on all available information is an important research subject. Of course, we can establish the PDFs of the key parameters based on results from sophisticated laboratory tests, e.g. drained test for sand to obtain its friction angle, but those tests are expensive and time consuming. On the other hand, in-situ tests are quick and convenient, but they do not provide direct information on the key parameters. Nevertheless, they do usually provide indirect information of the key parameters by correlation, e.g. SPT-N is positively correlated to friction angle of sand, and plasticity index (PI) is also related to undrained shear strength of clay. Therefore, it is possible to update the PDFs of the key parameters by using the in-situ test data.

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