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研究生: 楊錦程
Ching-Cheng Yang
論文名稱: 複迴歸與倒傳遞類神經網路應用於冰水主機耗能分析
Application of Multiple Regression and Back Propagation Neural Network in Energy Consumption Analysis of Water Chiller Unit System
指導教授: 楊振雄
Zhen-Xiong Yang
口試委員: 吳常熙
Chang-Xi Wu
陳金聖
Jin-Sheng Chen
郭永麟
Yong-Lin Guo
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工程學院 - 自動化及控制研究所
Graduate Institute of Automation and Control
論文出版年: 2020
畢業學年度: 108
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 92
中文關鍵詞: 複迴歸倒傳遞類神經網路冰水主機耗能分析模型演算法
外文關鍵詞: Multiple regression, Back propagation neural network, Energy consumption analysis of water chiller unit system, Model algorithm
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  • 本研究使用複迴歸(本論文簡稱MR)及倒傳遞類神經網路(本論文簡稱BPNN),預測對本案例冰水主機建立耗電量模型,並且比較此兩種方法在整年度冰水主機耗電量樣本數,經過資料收集及刪除不合理數據預測夏季6至9月份尖峰負載用電。
    另外為了達到冰水主機耗能效果,將6至9月份冰水出水溫度提高0.5度,其他月份提高1度,再利用MR模型演算法及BPNN模型演算法預測冰水主機耗電量,比較耗能前後冰水主機耗能效率。最後以冰水主機負載耗電量來分析負載因數及需量因數,比較耗能前後負載利用率。


    This study uses multiple regression and back propagation neural network, predict the establishment of power consumption model for the water chiller unit system in this case. and compare the number of samples of the power consumption of the water chiller nuit system in the whole year by these two methods. after data collection and deletion of unreasonable data,
    The peak load electricity consumption in summer form June to September is predicted.
    In addition, in order to achieve the energy consumption effect of the water chiller unit system,Increase the ice water outlet temperature from June to September by 0.5 , and increase by 1 in other months, prediction of power consumption of the water chiller unit system by using multiple regression and back propagation neural network, comparing the energy consumption efficiency of the water chiller unit system before and after energy saving. Finally, the load factor and demand factor of the water chiller unit system load power consumption are analyzed to compare the load utilization before and after energy consumption .

    誌謝…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………I 摘要………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………II ABSTRACT…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………III 目錄………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………IV 圖目錄…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………VIII 表目錄……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………X 第一章、緒論…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………1 1.1前言……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………1 1.2文獻探討……………………………………………………………………………………………………………3 1.3研究動機……………………………………………………………………………………………………………4 1.4論文架構……………………………………………………………………………………………………………4 第二章、中央空調系統介紹…………………………………………………………………………………………6 2.1 簡介…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………6 2.2 空調系統架構……………………………………………………………………………………………………6 2.2.1壓縮機…………………………………………………………………………………………………………7 2.2.2冷凝器…………………………………………………………………………………………………………8 2.2.3膨脹閥…………………………………………………………………………………………………………8 2.2.4蒸發器…………………………………………………………………………………………………………9 2.2.5泵浦……………………………………………………………………………………………………………10 2.2.6風機……………………………………………………………………………………………………………11 2.2.7冷卻水塔…………………………………………………………………………………………………12 2.3 中央空調系統運作原理…………………………………………………………………………………12 2.4 中央空調系統冰水系統供應方式……………………………………………………………………13 2.5 冰水主機性能係數及測試標準………………………………………………………………………17 2.5.1常用性能係數……………………………………………………………………………………………17 2.5.2冰水主機性能測試標準………………………………………………………………………………17 2.6冰水循環泵及冷卻水循環系統…………………………………………………………………………19 2.6.1 冰水側節能方式…………………………………………………………………………………………21 2.6.2 冷卻水側節耗能方式…………………………………………………………………………………22 2.6.2.1 影響冷卻水側水垢產生的因素………………………………………………………23 2.6.2.2 冷卻水塔水量耗損……………………………………………………………………………24 2.6.2.3 冷卻水塔水垢物清除方式………………………………………………………………25 2.7 小結…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………25 第三章、最佳化理論分析與應用………………………………………………………………………………………26 3.1 簡介…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………26 3.2 數學理論迴歸分析與冰水主機耗電模型………………………………………………………26 3.2.1 簡單迴歸分析…………………………………………………………………………………………26 3.2.2 複迴歸分析……………………………………………………………………………………………27 3.2.3 冰水主機耗電模型…………………………………………………………………………………29 3.3 類神經網路……………………………………………………………………………………………………29 3.3.1 類神經網路原理……………………………………………………………………………………29 3.3.2 倒傳遞類神經網路…………………………………………………………………………………35 3.3.2.1 BPNN基本架構……………………………………………………………………………35 3.3.2.2 BPNN學習演算法…………………………………………………………………………37 3.3.2.3 BPNN區域最小值與歸納性…………………………………………………………42 3.3.2.4 BPNN學習流程……………………………………………………………………………43 3.4 冰水主機耗電量負載特性……………………………………………………………………………44 3.4.1 負載因數…………………………………………………………………………………………………44 3.4.2 需量因數…………………………………………………………………………………………………45 3.5 小結……………………………………………………………………………………………………………45 第四章、實驗內容與分析……………………………………………………………………………………………47 4.1 簡介………………………………………………………………………………………………………………47 4.2 現場案例 台北市某觀光飯店水冷式冰水主機分析與建模………………………47 4.2.1 數據分析與模型演算法應用…………………………………………………………………50 4.2.2 現場案例 台北市某觀光飯店水冷式冰水主機系統變化圖分析…………51 4.3 某觀光飯店水冷式冰水主機數據分析與模型演算法應用…………………………56 4.3.1 MR模型演算法分析……………………………………………………………………………56 4.3.2 BPNN模型演算法分析…………………………………………………………………………58 4.3.3 模型演算法性能比較……………………………………………………………………………60 4.4 某觀光飯店水冷式冰水主機耗能分析與模型演算法應用…………………………61 4.4.1 MR模型演算法耗能分析………………………………………………………………………61 4.4.2 BPNN模型演算法耗能分析…………………………………………………………………63 4.4.3 模型演算法耗能分析性能比較……………………………………………………………65 4.4.4 MR與BPNN模型演算法耗能效率比較………………………………………………66 4.5 某觀光飯店水冷式冰水主機負載與需量因數耗能分析………………………………66 4.5.1 MR與BPNN模型演算法耗能前負載因數分析…………………………………66 4.5.2 MR與BPNN模型演算法耗能前需量因數分析…………………………………67 4.5.3 MR與BPNN模型演算法耗能後負載因數分析…………………………………68 4.5.4 MR與BPNN模型演算法耗能後需量因數分析…………………………………68 4.5.5 MR與BPNN模型演算法耗能前後負載因數比較………………………………69 4.5.6 MR與BPNN模型演算法耗能前後需量因數比較………………………………70 4.6 小結………………………………………………………………………………………………………………71 第五章、結論與未來展望………………………………………………………………………………………………72 5.1分析與討論……………………………………………………………………………………………………72 5.2 研究貢獻………………………………………………………………………………………………………73 5.3 未來研究方向………………………………………………………………………………………………73

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