本研究主要是加入企業的生命週期的觀點來建構財務危機預警模型，並利用財務及非財務資訊，分別以羅吉斯迴歸及資料包絡法-區別分析建構模型。實證結果顯示，資料包絡法-區別分析模型比羅吉斯迴歸模型能提供較佳的準確度。在愈接近危機發生日，成長期企業需特別注意台灣企業信用風險評等(TCRI)、保留盈餘占資產總額比率及財務主管異動次數。成熟期階段舉債較為容易，但面臨成長趨緩的壓力，模型顯示愈接近危機發生企業需更加注意台灣企業信用風險評等(TCRI)、借款依存度、每股盈餘、營業利益成長率及財務重編次數。衰退期企業則需注意台灣企業信用風險評等(TCRI)及股東權益報酬率的變化。

The main purpose of this research is to add corporation life-cycle in prediction model of financial distress. And use the methods of logistic regression and DEA-DA by the financial ratios and non-financial information. The results indicate that the DEA-DA models can provide better prediction. Corporations in growth stage should pay more attention to the Taiwan corporate credit risk index (TCRI), retained earning on assets and the change frequency of financial chief to near financial distress time. Corporations in maturity stage are easy to borrow money, but facing the pressure of growth to slow down. With coming of financial distress time, Corporations should pay more attention to the Taiwan corporate credit risk index (TCRI), leverage ratio, earnings per share, operating return growth ratio and reediting frequency of financial statement. Furthermore, corporations in decline stage should pay more attention to the Taiwan corporate credit risk index (TCRI) and return on common stockholders’ equity.

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