橋梁受到災害時會導致非預期性損失，其損失來源為修補橋梁費用與無法提供正常額定交通容量而造成用路人需增加之額外成本。本研究以系統可靠度之概念計算橋梁損傷發生機率，將原有的橋柱耐震性能加入元件或構件檢核，檢核項目依據補強規範之補強項目，如:防落長度、支承剪力，下部基礎結構檢核等，以四種系統可靠度方法計算出損傷等級之超越機率，依照不同服務年限計算出各損傷等級之發生機率，希望更能符合真實橋梁之受損狀態，並且以敏感性分析找出各橋梁之敏感構件，以利補強時能夠真對該構件進行設計補強工法，本研究亦探討橋梁受損後之回復性能，以各服務年限損傷發生機率計算其回復性能，並考量不同回復路徑所算出之回復性能，以反映修補時交通容量之變化，並以此計算社會成本，如；交通容量減少、車輛繞道或車速降低所花費之成本，最後以定值型回復路徑為基準，計算不同工法所對應之不同回復路徑以此計算社會成本折減率。最後本研究以台北市三座橋梁進行試算比較，以了解本方法之實用性。

When a bridge is destroyed or damaged seriously under earthquake, the recovery cost and social cost may exceed the expected loss. This study adopts the system reliability method to estimate the occurrence probabilities of each damage state of a bridge structure including damage states of several selected components or members, and adopts four ways to estimate the occurrence probabilities, according to the different length of service to estimate the occurrence probabilities of each damage state, In order to recovery work, this paper find the sensitive components or members. Engineer can design for it.This study considered recovery after bridge is destroyed. Use different recovery event definition to estimate recovery.And adopts it to calculate social cost. Finally this study take “constant type recovery path” as the standard. This study calculate Social cost reduction rate by different recovery event. Three Steel bridges in Taipei are selected in the case study to demonstrate the application of the proposed estimation procedure.

參考文獻
[1]國家地震工程研究中心，公路橋梁耐震能力評估及補強準則之研究，(2009)。
[2]程瑞忠，考慮回復性能支橋梁補強效益研究，台灣科技大學營建工程系，碩士論文(2015)。
[3]Ayyub, B.M., “Practical Resilience Metrics for Planning, Design, and Deci,”ASCE,(2015)。
[4]臺北市政府工務局新建工程處，臺北市橋梁耐震評估工作期初報告，(2013)。
[5]交通部，交通技術標準規範類公路工程部橋梁耐震設計規範，(2008)。
[6]Kuang-Yen Liu, Witarto, Kuo-Chun Chang, “Evaluation of Fu-R-T (Modified R-µ-T) Concept on Seismic Evaluation of Bridge Column” International Symposium on Reliability Engineering and Risk Management (ISRERM'2014).Taipei, Taiwan.
[7]鋼筋混凝土建築物耐震能力評估手冊─視窗化輔助分析系統SERCB Win2012，內政部建築研究所，(2012)。
[8]黃泰霖，系統韌性概念回顧與災防策略之省思(2012)。
[9]Zhou, H., Wang, J., Wan, J. and Jia, H.“Resilience to Natural Hazards: A geographic perspective,”Natural Hazards, 53(1), pp. 21-41(2010).
[10]Tierney, K. and Bruneau, M.“Conceptualizing and Measuring Resilience: A Key to Disaster Loss Reduction.”TR News 250 (May-June), pp. 14-17(2007).
[11]Bruneau, M and Reinhorn, A.“Exploring the Concept of Seismic Resilience for Acute Care Facilities,”Earthquake Spectra. 23(1), pp. 41-62(2007).
[12]Bruneau, M et al.“A Framework to Quantitatively Assess and Enhance the Seismic Resilience of Communities,”Earthquake Spectra 19(4), pp.733-752(2003).
[13]Bocchini, P.,Frangopol, D.(2014), Ummenhofer, T., and Zinke, T.,“Resilience and Sustainability of Civil Infrastructure: Toward a Unified Approach,”Journal of Infrastructure System, ASCE, 20(2)(2014).
[14]Cimellaro, G., Reinhorn, A., and Bruneau, M.,“Framework for analytical quantification of disaster resilience, Engineering Structures, ”32(11),pp. 3639-3649(2010).
[15]Venkittaraman, A. and Banerjee, S.“Enhancing resilience of highway bridges through seismic retrofit, Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics,”43(8),pp. 1173-1191(2013).
[16]Decò, A., Bocchini, P. and Frangopol, D.“A probabilistic approach for the prediction of seismic resilience of bridges.”Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics, 42(10), pp. 1469-1487(2013).
[17]鈴木基行，構造物信頼性設計法ソ基礎，(2010)。
[18]趙衍剛、小野徹郎，応答曲面法ズプペ骨組ЁЗЪуソ構造信頼性解析，(1997)。
[19]Yan-Gang Zhao and Zhao-Hui Lu.“Methods of Moment for Structural Reliability”,pp236-238(2016).
[20]Federal Emergency Management Agency U.S.“Department of Homeland Security,”Hazus-MH MR4(2009)
[21]徐梓隆，群橋生命週期維護策略最佳化之模式研究，臺灣科技大學營建工程系，碩士論文(2014)。