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研究生: 施柏均
Bo-Jyun SHIH
論文名稱: 單站法卷積神經網路預測最大地表加速度應用於Earthworm系統之研究
An application of CNN-based PGA Prediction on Earthworm System
指導教授: 許丁友
Ting-Yu Hsu
口試委員: 吳逸民
Yih-Min Wu
陳達毅
Da-Yi Chen
金台齡
Tai-Lin Chin
陳冠宇
GUAN-YU CHEN
許丁友
Ting-Yu Hsu
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工程學院 - 營建工程系
Department of Civil and Construction Engineering
論文出版年: 2022
畢業學年度: 110
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 115
中文關鍵詞: 深度學習卷積神經網路現地型強震預警Earthworm系統
外文關鍵詞: Deep learning, Convolution Neural Network, Earthquake Early Warning System, Earthworm System
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強震預警系統主要目的在於提前發出精準的警報,讓近震央區域有時間做好預防措施,以減少強震波帶來的傷亡與財損。目前交通部氣象局採用的是區域型的強震預警系統,並以縣市為單位發出警報,對於大部分地震可做出良好的預測,但在近震央地區的預警時效性卻不盡理想,因此,本研究的目標是期望能夠增加近震央地區的預警時效以縮小盲區,同時也要減少誤報的發生率。
近年來受惠於電腦硬體的不斷進步,電腦的運算相較於以往更加迅速,這使得深度學習的應用蓬勃發展,其中在強震預警領域也不例外。前人已將卷積神經網路(CNN)應用於現地型強震預警,並用歷史地震驗證得出現地型強震預警能有一定的實用性。因此,本研究想更進一步的將此成果應用於氣象局之Earthworm系統中,希望可以提升近震央區域預警的速度。而為了要減少誤報的發生,本研究也嘗試以多測站預測之PGA皆大於門檻值作為測站發報條件。接著利用近十年發生的有感地震進行模擬警報發布,並將現地型警報離線分析的結果加入到區域型警報變成複合式的強震預警,經過統計後本研究建議的方法在無容許誤差時警報的準確率與召回率分別為69%、85%;有容許誤差時警報的準確率與召回率分別為96%、100%,而複合式的強震預警在近震央地區可以比區域型警報增加約1~2秒的警報時效。


The earthquake early warning system aim to alert before the arrival of strong seismic waves, so that the area near the epicenter has time to take preventive measures. At present, the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) adopts a regional earthquake early warning system (EEW) and issue earthquake alerts in units of counties and cities. The regional EEW performs well for most earthquakes, but the timeliness of earthquake alerts in areas near the epicenter is not ideal. Therefore, the goal of this study is to improve the timeliness in the area near the epicenter to narrow the blind area but not substantially increase the incidence of false alarms at the same time.
The previous research had applied the convolutional neural network (CNN) to the on-site EEW, and the CNN-based on-site EEW had illustrated its ability using recent damaging earthquakes in Taiwan. Therefore, this study intends to further apply the CNN-based on-site EEW to the Earthworm system of the CWB, hoping to improve the speed of early warning in the area near the epicenter. In order to reduce the occurrence of false alerts, this study also proposed to use the conditions based on peak ground accelerations predicted by multiple stations to be greater than the threshold. Then use the earthquakes that occurred in the past ten years to issue simulated alarms, and add the results of on-site EEW to the Earthworm system to form a hybrid earthquake early warning system. After statistics, the accuracy and recall of the method proposed in this study when there is without tolerance are 69% and 85% respectively; when there is with tolerance are 95.93% and 100% respectively. The hybrid earthquake early warning system can increase the warning time of about 1~2 seconds in the area near the epicenter compared with the regional earthquake early warning system.

摘要 I ABSTRACT II 誌謝 III 目錄 IV 表目錄 VII 圖目錄 IX 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究動機與目的 1 1.2 研究內容與架構 3 第二章 研究方法 5 2.1 時頻域多尺度預測PGA之CNN模型 5 2.1.1 模型訓練資料 8 2.1.2 模型架構 8 2.2 現地型警報發布邏輯 12 2.3 Earthworm系統 17 2.3.1 系統介紹 17 2.3.2 EEW模組 18 2.3.3 區域型警報 18 2.4 現地型警報加入Earthworm系統 19 第三章 資料特性探討 22 3.1 場址效應與震源與路徑特性 22 3.2 探討現地型預測PGA是否受到地震特性影響 26 3.2.1 場址效應 27 3.2.2 震源與路徑特性 38 第四章 地震資料與統計指標 47 4.1 地震模擬資料製作 47 4.2 統計指標 48 4.2.1 縣市發報準確率 48 4.2.2 測站預測震度準確率 49 4.2.3 現地型與區域型警報發布時間比較 50 第五章 地震模擬分析 51 5.1 現地型與區域型警報結果分析 51 5.2 現地型警報加入Earthworm系統之發報結果 60 5.3 小節與建議 62 第六章 近期地震模擬 65 6.1 近期地震結果展示 65 第七章 結論與未來展望 77 7.1 結論 77 7.2 未來展望 79 參考文獻 80 附錄 83

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