Design activities in a construction project are often carried out through an iterative process. Iteration design processes improve the quality and the function of design. More specifically in complex projects, iterations play an important role for continuity of project and completion of the project. Iterative process modeling gives better understanding to estimate the project duration and make trade-off between design quality with reworks or changes. This thesis describes a probabilistic model based on iteration and dependencies among the activities that can be improved to obtain faster and better design process. The proposed model is result of combination between Design Structure Matrix (DSM) and Hidden Markov Model (HMM). This model imitates the real condition in a project by updating the observation through checklist and questionnaire to obtain the parameter in Hidden Markov Model that were analyzed by expert judgment method. The model is performed under several conditions and is compared with previous research to validate the general concept. The results show that DSM-HMM model can describe the design process in detail: number of iterations, quality of the design, and total duration of the activity. This model can improve the design process and can be applied in the practical design in construction projects.

Design activities in a construction project are often carried out through an iterative process. Iteration design processes improve the quality and the function of design. More specifically in complex projects, iterations play an important role for continuity of project and completion of the project. Iterative process modeling gives better understanding to estimate the project duration and make trade-off between design quality with reworks or changes. This thesis describes a probabilistic model based on iteration and dependencies among the activities that can be improved to obtain faster and better design process. The proposed model is result of combination between Design Structure Matrix (DSM) and Hidden Markov Model (HMM). This model imitates the real condition in a project by updating the observation through checklist and questionnaire to obtain the parameter in Hidden Markov Model that were analyzed by expert judgment method. The model is performed under several conditions and is compared with previous research to validate the general concept. The results show that DSM-HMM model can describe the design process in detail: number of iterations, quality of the design, and total duration of the activity. This model can improve the design process and can be applied in the practical design in construction projects.

Abdelsalam, H.M.E., and Bao, H.P., (2006): “A Simulation Based Optimization Framework for Product Development Cycle Time Reduction”. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 53(1): p. 69-85.
Adi, T.J.W., (2011): “Geology Prediction Support System for Micro-tunneling Projects Using Neural-Hidden Markov Model”. PhD Thesis. Department of Construction Engineering, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology (Taiwan-Tech).
Anghel, D.C., (2010): "The Iterations Study in the Design Process, based on the DSM Method and the Markov Chain Model", Automotive Series, 20:pp. 5-9.
Arundachawat, P., (2009): "Design Rework Prediction in Concurrent Design Environment: Current Trends and Future Research Directions", CIRP Design Conference - Competitive Design, pp. 237.
Barkhuizen, W.F, et al., (2011): “An Approach to Innovation in Risk Systems”, ISEM 2011.
Browning, T.R., (1998): "Use of Dependency Structure Matrices for Product Development Cycle Time Reduction", International Conference on Concurrent Engineering: Research and Applications.
Browning, T.R., (1998b): "Modeling and Analyzing Cost, Schedule, and Performance in Complex System Product Development", MIT, Masters Thesis.
Browning, T.R., (1999): “The Design Structure Matrix”, Technology Management Handbook, pp. 103-111.
Browning, T.R., (2001): “Applying the Design Structure Matrix to System Decomposition and Integration Problems: A Review and new Directions.”, IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 48(3): p. 292-306.
Browning, T.R., and Eppinger, S.D., (2002): “Modeling Impacts of Process Architecture on Cost and Schedule Risk in Product Development”, IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 49(4): pp 428-442.
Bulloch, B., and Sullivan, J., (2009): “Application of the Design Structure Matrix (DSM) to the Real Estate Development Process”, MIT, Masters Thesis.
Cho, S.H., and Eppinger, S.D., (2005): “A Simulation Based Process Model for Managing Complex Design Projects”, IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 52(3): pp 316-328.
Choo, H.J, et al., (2004): “De Plan: A Tool for Integrated Design Management”, Automation in Construction, 13(3): pp 313-326.
Cruz, J.L.D.L., (2009): “Expert Session and Expert Judgment Analysis”, Deltares
Danilovic, M., and Browning, T.R., (2007): "Managing Complex Product Development Projects with Design Structure Matrices and Domain Mapping Matrices", International Journal of Project Management, 25(3), pp. 300-314.
Denker, S, et al., (1994): ”Planning Concurrency and Managing Iteration in Projects”, Center for Quality of Management Journal, 8(2), pp. 55-62.
Eppinger, S.D, et al., (1994): ”A Model – Based Method for Organizing Tasks in Product Development”, Research in Engineering Design, 6, pp. 1-13.
Eppinger, S.D., (1995): “Three Concurrent Engineering Problems in Product Development”, Cambridge, MA.
Eppinger, S.D, et al., (1997): “Generalized Models of Design Iteration Using Signal Flow Graphs”, Research in Engineering Design, 9, 112-123.
Gebala, DA., and Eppinger, S.D., (1991): "Modeling the Impact of Organizational Structure on Design Lead Time and Product Quality", MIT Sloan School of Management, Working Paper no. 3301.
Grose, D.L., (1994): "Reengineering the Aircraft Design Process", Symposium on Multidisciplinary Analysis and Optimization.
Gunawan, I., (2009): "Application of Numerical Design Structure Matrix Method in Engineering Projects Management", Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2(1): pp 1-10.
Haldar, A., and Mahadevan, S., (2000): "Probability, Reliability, and Statistical Methods in Engineering Design", New York: John Wiley and Sons.
Hamada, M.S, et al., (2008): “Design Development Quality Management Phase Checklist”, New York: Springer.
Hassett, M.J., and Stewart, D.G., (2006): "Probability for Risk Management", Connecticut: ACTEX.
Isaksson, et al., (1998): “Evaluation of Design Process Alternatives using Signal Flow Graphs”, ENDREA.
Karniel, A., and Reich, Y., (2007): “Managing Dynamic New Product Development Processes”, INCOSE 2007.
Krishnan, V., (1988): “Design Process Improvement: Sequencing and Overlapping Activities in Product Development”, MIT, Dissertations Thesis.
Leu, S.S., and Adi, T.J.W., (2011): "Micro-tunneling Decision Support System (MDS) using Neural-Autoregressive Hidden Markov Model", Expert Systems with Applications 38: 5801-5808.
Lough, M.J., (2011): “Design Development Quality Management Phase Checklist”, AIA Best Practices.
Neal, R.M., (1993): “Probabilistic Inference Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods”, University of Toronto, Technical Report.
Osborne, S.M., (1993): "Product Development Cycle Time Characterization Through Modeling of Process Iteration", MIT, Masters Thesis.
Othman, M, et al., (2011): “Application of the Design Structure Matrix to Wheelchair Development”, International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management pp 583-588.
Rabiner, L.R., (2002): "A Tutorial in Hidden Markov Models and Selected Applications", IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 49(4).
Ross, S.M., (1996): "Stochastic Process 2nd Edition", United States of America: John Wiley and Sons.
Suparman, T.D.N., (2009): “Scheduling Project Tasks under Resource Constrained using Design Structure Matrix and Quality Equations”, NTUST, Master Thesis.
Smith, R.P., and Eppinger, S.D., (1997): "A Predictive Model of Sequential Iteration in Engineering Design", Management Science 43(8): 1104-1120.
Smith, R.P., and Eppinger, S.D., (1997b): "Identifying Controlling Features of Engineering Design Iteration", Management Science 43(3): 276-293.
Stamp, M., (2012): “A Revealing Introduction to Hidden Markov Models”, San Jose State University.
Steward, D. V., (1981): ”Systems Analysis and Management: Structure, Strategy, and Design”, New York: PBI.
Steward, D. V., (1981): ”The Design Structure Systems : A Method for Managing the Design of Complex Systems”, IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 28(3): pp 71-74.
Soong, T. T., (2004): ”Fundamentals of Probability and Statistics for Engineers”, England: John Wiley and Sons.
University Health Network., (2007): "Construction and Design Guidelines - Project Checklist".
Vesely, W.E., and Rasmuson, D.M., (1984): "Uncertainties in Nuclear Probabilistic Risk Analyses", Risk Analysis, 4(4): pp 313-322.
Yassine, A., and Braha, D., (2003): “Complex Concurrent Engineering and Design Structure Matrix Method”, Concurrent Engineering: Research and Applications 11(3): 165-176.
Xuan, T., (2004): “Auto-regression Hidden Markov Model with Application in an El-Nino Study”, Master’s Thesis, Department of Mathematics and statistics university of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon.
Yassine, A., and Braha, D., (2003): “Complex Concurrent Engineering and Design Structure Matrix Method”, Concurrent Engineering: Research and Applications 11(3): 165-176.
Yassine, A., (2004): “An Introduction to Modeling and Analyzing Complex Product Development Processes Using the Design Structure Matrix (DSM) Method”, Italian Management Review 9.