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研究生: 陳德山
Duc-Son Tran
論文名稱: 以機器學習分析透天住宅能耗之時間序列態樣
Time Series Analysis using Machine Learning Techniques for Energy Consumption Patterns in Residential Buildings
指導教授: 周瑞生
Jui-Sheng Chou
口試委員: 蔡宛珊
Wan-Shan Tsai
于昌平
Chang-Ping Yu
謝佑明
Yo-Ming Hsieh
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工程學院 - 營建工程系
Department of Civil and Construction Engineering
論文出版年: 2018
畢業學年度: 106
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 145
中文關鍵詞: energy consumptiontime-series forecastingartificial intelligencemachine learningresidential buildingsdata mining
外文關鍵詞: energy consumption, time-series forecasting, artificial intelligence, machine learning, residential buildings, data mining
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  • Energy demand in buildings is increasing because of development of countries around the world. Forecasting the energy consumption in buildings has become crucial for improving energy efficiency and sustainable development, and thereby reducing energy costs and environmental impact. This investigation presents a comprehensive review of machine learning techniques for forecasting energy consumption time series using actual data. Real-time data were collected from a smart grid that was installed in an experimental building and used to evaluate the efficacy and effectiveness of statistical and machine learning techniques. Four well-known artificial intelligence techniques, Artificial Neural Networks, Support Vector Machine, Classification and Regression Tree, and Linear Regression, were used to analyze energy consumption in single and ensemble scenarios. An in-depth review and analysis of the ‘hybrid model’ that combines forecasting and optimization techniques is presented. The comprehensive comparison demonstrates that the hybrid model is more accurate than the single and ensemble models. Both the accuracy of prediction and the suitability for use of these models are considered to support users in planning energy management.


    Energy demand in buildings is increasing because of development of countries around the world. Forecasting the energy consumption in buildings has become crucial for improving energy efficiency and sustainable development, and thereby reducing energy costs and environmental impact. This investigation presents a comprehensive review of machine learning techniques for forecasting energy consumption time series using actual data. Real-time data were collected from a smart grid that was installed in an experimental building and used to evaluate the efficacy and effectiveness of statistical and machine learning techniques. Four well-known artificial intelligence techniques, Artificial Neural Networks, Support Vector Machine, Classification and Regression Tree, and Linear Regression, were used to analyze energy consumption in single and ensemble scenarios. An in-depth review and analysis of the ‘hybrid model’ that combines forecasting and optimization techniques is presented. The comprehensive comparison demonstrates that the hybrid model is more accurate than the single and ensemble models. Both the accuracy of prediction and the suitability for use of these models are considered to support users in planning energy management.

    ABSTRACT i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ii TABLE OF CONTENTS iii LIST OF FIGURES v LIST OF TABLES vi ABBREVIATIONS AND SYMBOLS viii Chapter 1 : Introduction 1 1.1 Research Background and Motivations 1 1.2 Research Objectives 3 Chapter 2 : Literature Review 5 2.1 Energy Consumption in Buildings 5 2.2 AI Techniques for Predicting Time-Series Energy Consumption 6 Chapter 3 : Methodology 13 3.1 AI-based Prediction Models 13 3.1.1 Single Models 14 3.1.2 Ensemble Models 18 3.1.3 Hybrid Models 20 3.2 Machine Learning Software 26 3.3 Performance evaluation 26 Chapter 4 : Energy Consumption of Buildings and Development of Model Thereof 29 4.1 Experimental Residential Building 29 4.2 Data Description 29 4.3 Model Development 32 4.3.1 Single Models 32 4.3.2 Ensemble Models 36 4.3.3 Hybrid Models 38 Chapter 5 : Experimental Results and Discussion 43 5.1 Performance in Single Scenario 43 5.2 Performance in Ensemble Scenario 46 5.3 Performance in Hybrid Scenario 48 5.4 Comprehensive Comparison and Discussion 49 Chapter 6 : Conclusion and Recommendation 52 References 54 APPENDIX 60 Appendix A. An Example of 1-Week Historical Data with 15-min intervals 60 Appendix B. An Example of 1-Week Historical Data with 1-hour intervals 77 Appendix C. Historical and Predicted 1-day-ahead energy consumption 82 Appendix D. MATLAB Codes of SARIMA-PSO-LSSVR Model 84 Appendix E. Tutorial of SARIMA-PSO-LSSVR Model for Users 118 Appendix F. Performance Measures in 15-min Intervals 127 Appendix G. Performance Measures in 1-hour Intervals 131

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