In our daily life, we are circled by various risks, and we continually work for better approaches to quantify and to manage risks. Risk Management has become a foremost part of Project Management. An important part of Project Risk Management (PRM) is risk analysis, which efforts to measure risk and its effect on various project indications such as time, cost and quality. Cost is basic to the successful completion of projects. By focusing on the tradeoff between project indications, this thesis concentrates on project cost management under uncertainty.
This thesis aims to show that BBNs modelling can enhance project risk assessment. A literature review explores the important limitations of the current practice of the project costing under uncertainty. Field's survey to 18 building projects in the Surabaya and online questionnaire survey was also conducted involving experts, company management, project leader, project manager, supervisor, field engineering, sub-contractors, and suppliers. Thirteen significant factors causing cost overrun in construction projects in Indonesia are identified as the result of a comprehensive literature survey and ratings by construction professionals in Indonesia through factor analysis. Furthermore, this thesis analyzes the cause-effect relationships among the identified factors. Following this, 18 cause and effect relationships among the 13 factors are established based on the expert survey. Cost Risk Analysis using Bayesian (CRAB), is proposed, which applies BBNs for performing cost overruns probability calculation and performs the interaction between the variables and predicts cost risks in a manner that attaches probabilities to each degree of cost overrun. Hopefully can be useful for owners in determining more realistic decision-to-build project budget.

ABRAMI, P. C., CHOLMSKY, P. & GORDON, R. 2001. Statistical Analysis for the Social Sciences: An Interactive Approach, Needham Heights, MA: Allyn & Bacon.
ADAMS, F. K. 2008. Risk perception and Bayesian analysis of international construction contract risks: The case of payment delays in a developing economy. International Journal of Project Management, 26, 138-148.
AIBINU, A. A. & ODEYINKA, H. A. 2006. Construction Delays and Their Causative Factors in Nigeria. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 132, 667-677.
AKINCI, B. & FISCHER, M. 1998. Factors Affecting Contractors' Risk of Cost Overburden. Journal of Management in Engineering, 14, 67-76.
AKINTOYE, A. & FITZGERALD, E. 2000. A survey of current cost estimating practices in the UK. Construction Management and Economics, 18, 161-172.
AL-KHALIL, M. I. & AL-GHAFLY, M. A. 1999. Delay in public utility projects in Saudi Arabia. International Journal of Project Management, 17, 101-106.
ALWI, S. & HAMPSON, K. 2003. Identifying the important causes of delays in bulding construction projects. The 9th East Asia-Pacific Conference on Structural Engineering and Construction. Bali, Indonesia.
ALWI, S., HAMPSON, K. & MOHAMED, S. 1999. Investigation Into The Relationship Between Rework and Site Supervision in High Rise Building Construction in Indonesia. The 2nd International Conference on Construction Process Reengineering. Sydney, Australia.
ALWI, S., HAMPSON, K. & MOHAMED, S. Year. Non value adding Activities: a comparative study of indonesian and Australian construction projects. In: 10th of the International Group of Lean Construction Conference, 2002 Gramado, Brazil. 627-638.
ANDERSON, S., MOLENAAR, K. & SCHEXNAYDER, C. 2007. Guidance for cost estimation and management for highway projects during planning, programming, and preconstruction. Report (National Cooperative Highway Research Program). American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials.
ANDI 2006. The importance and allocation of risks in Indonesian construction projects. Construction Management and Economics, 24, 69-80.
ATKINSON, R., CRAWFORD, L. & WARD, S. 2006. Fundamental uncertainties in projects and the scope of project management. International Journal of Project Management, 24, 687-698.
AWAKUL, P. & OGUNLANA, S. O. 2002. The effect of attitudinal differences on interface conflicts in large scale construction projects: a case study. Construction Management and Economics, 20, 365-377.
AZHAR, N., FAROOQUI, R. U. & AHMED, S. M. 2008. Cost Overrun Factors In Construction Industry of Pakistan. First International Conference on Construction In Developing Countries (ICCIDC–I). Karachi,, Pakistan.
BAYES, T. 1763. An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances. Philosophical Transaction of the Royal Society of London, 370-418.
BHURISITH, I. & TOURAN, A. 2002. Case Study of Obsolescence and Equipment Productivity. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 128, 357-361.
BING, L., TIONG, R. L.-K., FAN, W. W. & CHEW, D. A.-S. 1999. Risk Management in International Construction Joint Ventures. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 125, 277-284.
BRUZELIUS, N., FLYVBJERG, B. & ROTHENGATTER, W. 2002. Big decisions, big risks. Improving accountability in mega projects. Transport Policy, 9, 143-154.
BUBSHAIT, A. A., FAROOQ, G., JANNADI, M. O. & ASSAF, S. A. 1999. Quality practices in design organizations. Construction Management & Economics, 17.
CASTRO-LACOUTURE, D., SUER, G. A., GONZALEZ-JOAQUI, J. & YATES, J. K. 2009. Construction Project Scheduling with Time, Cost, and Material Restrictions Using Fuzzy Mathematical Models and Critical Path Method. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 135, 1096-1104.
CHAPMAN, R. J. 1999. The likelihood and impact of changes of key project personnel on the design process. Construction Management and Economics, 17, 99-106.
CHENG, C.-W., LEU, S.-S., LIN, C.-C. & FAN, C. 2010. Characteristic analysis of occupational accidents at small construction enterprises. Safety Science, 48, 698-707.
CHO, Y.-J., HYUN, C.-T., LEE, S.-B. & DIEKMANN, J. 2006. Characteristics of Contractor's Liabilities for Defects and Defective Work in Korean Public Projects. Journal of Professional Issues in Engineering Education and Practice, 132, 180-186.
CHRIS & STEPHEN 2000. Estimation and evaluation of uncertainty: a minimalist first pass approach. International Journal of Project Management, 18, 369-383.
CREEDY, G. D. 2006a. Risk Facotrs Leading to Cost Overrun in the Delivery of Highway Construction Projects. Queensland University of Technology.
CREEDY, G. D. 2006b. Risk Factors Leading to Cost Overrun in The Delivery of Highway Construction Projects. Doctor, Queensland University of Technology.
DALKEY, N. C. 1969. The Delphi Method: An Experimental Study of Group Opinion,prepared for the United States Air Force Project RAND. Santa Monica, California: Rand Corporation.
DAVEY, K. 2000. Preventing project cost escalation. Engineering Management Journal, 10, 174-181.
DAVIS, K., LEDBETTER, W. B. & JAMES L. BURATI, J. 1989. Measuring Design and Construction Quality Costs. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 115, 385-400.
DIEKMANN, J. E. & NELSON, M. C. 1985. Construction Claims: Frequency and Severity. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 111, 74-81.
EFRON, B. 2005. Bayesians, Frequentists, and Scientists. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 100, 1-5.
EL-ADAWAY, I. H. & KANDIL, A. A. 2009. Contractors' Claims Insurance: A Risk Retention Approach. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 135, 819-825.
EL-RAZEK, M. E. A., BASSIONI, H. A. & MOBARAK, A. M. 2008. Causes of Delay in Building Construction Projects in Egypt. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 134, 831-841.
EYERS, K. 2001. Belief Network Analysis of Direct Cost Risk in Building Construction. Masters, University of Toronto.
FISHER, R. A. 1922. On the Mathematical Foundations of Theoretical Statistics. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Containing Papers of a Mathematical or Physical Character, 222, 309-368.
FLANAGAN, R. & TATE, B. 1997. Cost Control in Building Design. Wiley-Blackwell.
FLYVBJERG, B. 2004. What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects? Transport Reviews, 24.
FLYVBJERG, B., HOLM, M. K. S. & BUHL, S. L. 2005. How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects?: The Case of Transportation. Journal of the American Planning Association, 71, 131-146.
FORMOSO, C. T., ISATTO, E. L. & HIROTA, E. H. Year. Method for Waste Control in The Building Industry. In: IGLC-7, 1999 University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA.
FORMOSO, C. T., SOIBELMAN, L., CESARE, C. D. & ISATTO, E. L. 2002. Material Waste in Building Industry: Main Causes and Prevention. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 128, 316-325.
FRIMPONG, Y., OLUWOYE, J. & CRAWFORD, L. 2003. Causes of delay and cost overruns in construction of groundwater projects in a developing countries; Ghana as a case study. International Journal of Project Management, 21, 321-326.
GALWAY, L. 2004. Quantitative Risk Analysis for Project Management: A Critical Review. Santa Monica, California: RAND Corporation.
GODFREY, P. S. 1996. Control of risk : a guide to the systematic management of risk from construction, London, Construction Industry Research and Information Association.
GOLAFSHANI, N. 2003. Understanding Reliability and Validity in Qualitative Research. Toronto, Ontario, Canada: University of Toronto.
HAIR, J. F. J., ANDERSON, R. E., TATHAM, R. L. & W. C. BLACK 1998. Multivariate data analysis. New Jersey, USA.: Prentice Hall, Inc.
HANNA, A. S., TAYLOR, C. S. & SULLIVAN, K. T. 2005. Impact of Extended Overtime on Construction Labor Productivity. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 131, 734-739.
HARISAWENI. 2007. The Framework for Minimizing Construction Time and Cost Overruns in Padang and Pekanbaru, Indonesia. Universiti Teknologi Malaysia.
HASTAK, M., HALPIN, D. W. & VANEGAS, J. 1996. COMPASS---New Paradigm for Project Cost Control Strategy and Planning. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 122, 254-264.
HSIAO, H.-H. 2000. Risk management in BOT project. Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
HSIEH, T.-Y., LU, S.-T. & WU, C.-H. 2004. Statistical analysis of causes for change orders in metropolitan public works. International Journal of Project Management, 22, 679-686.
JACKSON, S. 2003. Project Cost Overruns and Risk Management. School of Construction Management and Engineering The University of Reading, Whiteknights.
JAHREN, C. T. & ASHE, A. M. 1990. Predictors of Cost-Overrun Rates. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 116, 548-552.
JANI, A. 2008. An experimental investigation of factors influencing perceived control over a failing IT project. International Journal of Project Management, 26, 726-732.
JENSEN, F., B., G.-N. & THOMAS 2007. Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs, Springer.
JERGEAS, G. F. & RUWANPURA, J. 2010. Why Cost and Schedule Overruns on Mega Oil Sands Projects? Practice Periodical on Structural Design and Construction, 15, 40-43.
JOSEPHSON, P.-E., LARSSON, B. & LI, H. 2002. Illustrative Benchmarking Rework and Rework Costs in Swedish Construction Industry. Journal of Management in Engineering, 18, 76-83.
JRADE, A. & ALKASS, S. 2007. Computer-Integrated System for Estimating the Costs of Building Projects. Journal of Architectural Engineering, 13, 205-223.
KALIBA, C., MUYA, M. & MUMBA, K. 2009. Cost escalation and schedule delays in road construction projects in Zambia. International Journal of Project Management, 27, 522-531.
KAMING, P. F., OLOMOLAIYE, P. O., HOLT, G. D. & HARRIS, F. C. 1997a. Factors influencing construction time and cost overruns on high-rise projects in Indonesia. Construction Management and Economics, 15, 83-94.
KAMING, P. F., OLOMOLAIYE, P. O., HOLT, G. D. & HARRIS, F. C. 1997b. Factors influencing craftsmen's productivity in Indonesia. International Journal of Project Management, 15, 21-30.
KAPLAN, S. & BURMASTER, D. 1999. C. How, When, Why to Use All of the Evidence. Risk Analysis, 19, 55-62.
KENDRICK, T. 2003. Identifying and Managing Project Risk. New York: American Management Association.
KHODAKARAMI, V. 2009. Applying Bayesian Networks to model Uncertainty in Project Scheduling. Doctor of Philosophy, University of London.
KIM, Y.-W. & BAE, J. 2010. Assessing the Environmental Impacts of a Lean Supply System: Case Study of High-Rise Condominium Construction in Korea. Journal of Architectural Engineering, 16, 144-150.
KNIGHT, K. & FAYEK, A. R. 2002. Use of Fuzzy Logic for Predicting Design Cost Overruns on Building Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 128, 503-512.
KNOEPFEL, H. 1989. Cost and quality control in the project cycle. International Journal of Project Management, 7, 229-235.
KUEN, T. W. 2005. Cost management for building contractors in Hong Kong. Master, The University of Hongkong.
LAI, L. S. L. 1997. A synergistic approach to project management in information systems development. International Journal of Project Management, 15, 173-179.
LAM, P. T. I., WONG, F. W. H. & CHAN, A. P. C. 2006. Contributions of designers to improving buildability and constructability. Design Studies, 27, 457-479.
LARASATI, D. & TSUNEMI, W. 2008. Evaluation study on existing condition of Indonesian Construction industry: How to improve performance and the competitiveness. Japan: Kochi University of Technology.
LATHAM, S. M. 1994. Joint Review of Procurement and Contractual Arrangements in the United Kingdom Construction Industry.
LEE, J.-K. 2008. Cost Overrun and Cause in Korean Social Overhead Capital Projects: Roads, Rails, Airports, and Ports. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 134, 59-62.
LING, F. Y. Y. & BUI, T. T. D. 2010. Factors Affecting Construction Project Outcomes: Case Study of Vietnam. Journal of Professional Issues in Engineering Education and Practice, 136, 148-155.
LIU, L. & NAPIER, Z. 2010. The accuracy of risk-based cost estimation for water infrastructure projects: preliminary evidence from Australian projects. Construction Management and Economics, 28, 89-100.
LOGAN, D. M. 1990. 5.4. Decision analysis in engineering-economic modeling. Energy, 15, 677-696.
LOVE, P. E. D., EDWARDS, D. J., WATSON, H. & DAVIS, P. 2010. Rework in Civil Infrastructure Projects: Determination of Cost Predictors. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 136, 275-282.
LOWE, D. & SKITMORE, M. 1994. Experiential learning in cost estimating. Construction Management and Economics, 12, 423-431.
LOWE, D. J. & PARVAR, J. 2004. A logistic regression approach to modelling the contractor's decision to bid. Construction Management and Economics, 22, 643-653.
LUU, V. T., KIM, S.-Y., TUAN, N. V. & OGUNLANA, S. O. 2009. Quantifying schedule risk in construction projects using Bayesian belief networks. International Journal of Project Management, 27, 39-50.
MAJID, M. Z. A. & MCCAFFER, R. 1998. Factors of Non-Excusable Delays That Influence Contractors' Performance. Journal of Management in Engineering, 14, 42-49.
MANGITUNG, D. M. 2002. Factors influencing contractors being involved in prequalification.
MANSFIELD, N. R., UGWU, O. O. & DORAN, T. 1994. Causes of delay and cost overruns in Nigerian construction projects. International Journal of Project Management, 12, 254-260.
MCCABE, B., ABOURIZK, S. M. & GOEBEL, R. 1998. Belief Networks for Construction Performance Diagnostics. Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, 12, 93-100.
MCDONALD, B. & SMITHERS, M. 1998. Implementing a waste management plan during the construction phase of a project: a case study. Construction Management and Economics, 16, 71-78.
MCGEORGE, J. F. 1988. Design Productivity: A Quality Problem. Journal of Management in Engineering, 4, 350-362.
MENDELSOHN, R. 1997. The Constructibility Review Process: A Constructor's Perspective. Journal of Management in Engineering, 13, 17-19.
NASIR, D., MCCABE, B. & HARTONO, L. 2003. Evaluating Risk in Construction--Schedule Model (ERIC--S): Construction Schedule Risk Model. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 129, 518-527.
NASSAR, K. M., NASSAR, W. M. & HEGAB, M. Y. 2005. Evaluating Cost Overruns of Asphalt Paving Project Using Statistical Process Control Methods. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 131, 1173-1178.
NAZIR, R. A. 2004. Identification of causative factors that influence negative cost deviations in the overhead costs management on the high rise building construction project in Jakarta. Graduate, University of Indonesia.
NEAPOLITAN, R. E. 2004. Learning Bayesian Networks. Upper Saddle River, NJ, United States: Pearson Prentice Hall.
NEIL, M., FENTON, N. & NIELSON, L. 2000. Building large-scale Bayesian networks. Knowl. Eng. Rev., 15, 257-284.
NGUYEN, L. D., KNEPPERS, J., SOTO, B. G. D. & IBBS, W. 2010. Analysis of Adverse Weather for Excusable Delays. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 136, 1258-1267.
OKPALA, D. C. & ANIEKWU, A. N. 1988. Causes of High Costs of Construction in Nigeria. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 114, 233-244.
PERRY, G. J. 1986. Risk management -- an approach for project managers. International Journal of Project Management, 4, 211-216.
PMI 2008. A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide). In: 4 (ed.). Project Management Institute.
POTTS, K. 2008. Construction Cost Management: Learning from Case Studies. New York: Taylor and Francis.
RAKHMAN, E. & ZHANG, X. 2008. Identifying Attributes of Perception of Project Complexity. Master, UMEA Universitet.
REDMILL, F. 2002. Risk analysis - a subjective process. Engineering Management Journal, 12, 91-96.
REMINGTON, K. & POLLACK, J. 2007. Tools for Complex Projects. London: Gower.
RENDON-HERRERO, O. 2011. Special Issue on Construction on Expansive Soils. Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities, 25, 2-4.
SAHELY, B. S. G. E. & BAGLEY, D. M. 2001. Diagnosing Upsets in Anaerobic Wastewater Treatment Using Bayesian Belief Networks. Journal of Environmental Engineering, 127, 302-310.
SAID, H. & EL-RAYES, K. Year. Optimizing Material Logistics Planning in Construction Projects. In: JANAKA, R., YASSER, M. & SANGHYUN, L., eds., 2010. ASCE, 120.
SANDYAVITRI, A. 2008. Design ChangeControl Impacts on Time and Cost of Construction Project. Teknik Sipil Universitas Riau, 9, 57-70.
SANTOSO, I. 2000. Analisa Overruns Biaya Pada Beberapa Tipe Proyek Konstruksi. Civil Engineering Dimension, 2.
SARAM, D. D. D. & AHMED, S. M. 2001. Construction Coordination Activities: What Is Important and What Consumes Time. Journal of Management in Engineering, 17, 202-213.
SEMPLE, C., HARTMAN, F. T. & JERGEAS, G. 1994. Construction Claims and Disputes: Causes and Cost/Time Overruns. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 120, 785-795.
SEUNG, C. O. & SINHA, S. K. 2007. Construction equipment productivity estimation using artificial neural network model. Construction Management and Economics, 24, 1029-1044.
SHANE, J. S., MOLENAAR, K. R., ANDERSON, S. & SCHEXNAYDER, C. 2009. Construction Project Cost Escalation Factors. Journal of Management in Engineering, 25, 221-229.
SKORUPKA, D. 2008. Identification and Initial Risk Assessment of Construction Projects in Poland. Journal of Management in Engineering, 24, 120-127.
SOIBELMAN, L. & CALDAS, C. Year. Information Logistics for Construction Design Team Collaboration. In: RENATA, F., FENIOSKY, P.-M. & RODDIS, W. M. K., eds., 2000. ASCE, 44.
STEWART, T. R. 2000. Uncertainty, Judgment, and Error in Prediction. In: SAREWITZ, D., PIELKE, R. A. & BYERLY, R. (eds.) Prediction: Science, Decision Making, and the Future of Nature. Island Press.
TAYLOR, H. A. 2003. Risk Management and Tacit Knowledge in it Projects: Making the Implicit Explicit. Doctor, Queensland University of Technology.
THOMAS, H. R. 1992. Effects of Scheduled Overtime on Labor Productivity. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 118, 60-76.
THOMAS, H. R., HORMAN, M. J., R. EDWARD MINCHIN, J. & CHEN, D. 2003. Improving Labor Flow Reliability for Better Productivity as Lean Construction Principle. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 129, 251-261.
THOMAS, H. R. & NAPOLITAN, C. L. 1993. Quantitative Effects Of Construction Changes On Labor Productivity. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 121.
WANG, M.-T. & CHOU, H.-Y. 2003. Risk Allocation and Risk Handling of Highway Projects in Taiwan. Journal of Management in Engineering, 19, 60-68.
WARD, S. & CHAPMAN, C. 2003. Transforming project risk management into project uncertainty management. International Journal of Project Management, 21, 97-105.
WARD, S. & CHAPMAN, C. 2008. Stakeholders and uncertainty management in projects. Construction Management and Economics, 26, 563 - 577.
WIDEMAN, R. M. 1992. Project and Program Risk Management. Newtown Squre, PA, USA: Project Management Institute.
WIGUNA, I. P. A. & SCOTT, S. 2006. Relating risk to project performance in Indonesian building contracts. Construction Management and Economics, 24, 1125-1135.
WU, C.-H., HSIEH, T.-Y. & CHENG, W.-L. 2005. Statistical analysis of causes for design change in highway construction on Taiwan. International Journal of Project Management, 23, 554-563.
YOGESWARAN, K., KUMARASWAMY, M. M. & MILLER, D. R. A. 1998. Claims for extensions of time in civil engineering projects. Construction Management and Economics, 16, 283-293.
ZOU, P. X. W. 2011. Fostering a Strong Construction Safety Culture. Leadership and Management in Engineering, 11, 11-22.