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Author: Ade Aisyah Arifna Putri
Ade Aisyah Arifna Putri
Thesis Title: 整合 DEMATEL 和貝氏網路評估冷凍雞肉供應鏈的永續性
Integration of DEMATEL & Bayesian Network for Assessing Sustainability of Frozen Chicken Meat Supply Chain
Advisor: 林希偉
Shi-Woei Lin
Committee: 王孔政
Kung-Jeng Wang
楊朝龍
Chao-Lung Yang
Degree: 碩士
Master
Department: 管理學院 - 工業管理系
Department of Industrial Management
Thesis Publication Year: 2023
Graduation Academic Year: 111
Language: 英文
Pages: 82
Keywords (in other languages): Poultry Supply Chain
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禽肉市場與冷凍禽肉供需的增長,給全球的永續議題帶來了新挑戰,禽肉供應鏈的永續性表現亦成為管理者持續關注的指標。相較於養殖與配銷,禽肉生產階段對環境的影響更加顯著,因此,如何透過充足的證據及嚴謹的分析改善禽肉生產過程的永續性就成了當今研究的重要議題。本研究旨在透過環境、經濟和社會等三個面向評估冷凍雞肉生產階段的永續性,研究中結合了德爾菲法、決策實驗室分析法(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory, DEMATEL)和貝氏網路分析。其中,德爾菲方法用於獲得專家共識,確定應使用於永續性評估的重要指標,DEMATEL方法用於框架指標之間因果關係,這些因果關係最後再納入貝氏網路結構以進行最終的永續性評估。研究中除使用14個指標評估冷凍雞肉生產階段的永續性、採貝氏網路評估量化其不確定性,亦將模型實際應用於評估印尼一家大型冷凍雞肉生產設施的永續性。本研究提出的方法除可以幫助管理者在農產品供應鏈的永續性評估得到更多洞察,也突顯了在決策過程中考慮不確定性的重要性。


The growing market for poultry meat, mainly frozen meat, poses significant challenges to global sustainability. Furthermore, supply chain sustainability performance in developing countries still requires further investigation. The chicken meat production stage has the most environmental impact compared to the farming and distribution stages. As a result, improving the sustainability of the meat production process is critical. The purpose of this study is to assess the sustainability status of the frozen chicken meat production stage through environmental, economic, and social sustainability. This study combines the Delphi technique, Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL), and Bayesian network. The Delphi method was implemented to obtain expert consensus on the sustainability indicators that should be used. The DEMATEL method elicited multiple expert judgments on the causal relationships between indicators. The study suggests incorporating DEMATEL to aid in the construction of the Bayesian network structure. A total of 14 indicators were used to assess the sustainability status of the frozen chicken meat production stage. The Bayesian network evaluates the state of sustainability and quantifies uncertainties. The method was implemented to assess the sustainability status of a large frozen chicken meat production facility in Indonesia. Sensitivity and propagation analysis are employed to validate the model and gain more insights from the Bayesian network model. This study provides insight into sustainability assessment in the agri-food supply chain and highlights the importance of considering uncertainty and integrated approaches in decision-making processes.

摘要 i ABSTRACT ii CONTENTS iii LIST OF FIGURES v LIST OF TABLES vi CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Research Background 1 1.2 Research Objectives 4 1.3 Research Limitations 5 1.4 Thesis Organizations 5 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 6 2.1 Sustainable Food Supply Chain 6 2.2 Poultry Supply Chain 7 2.3 Food Cold Chain 9 2.3.1 Frozen Chicken Meat Cold Chain 10 2.3.2 Frozen Chicken Meat Production Process 11 2.4 Multi-Criteria Decision-Analysis 12 2.5 Related Work 14 CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY 25 3.1 Synthesis of Indicator 25 3.1.1 Delphi Method 25 3.1.2 Consensus Analysis 27 3.1.3 Sustainability Indicator 27 3.2 Construction of The Initial Graph 29 3.2.1 DEMATEL Method 29 3.2.2 DEMATEL Operational Steps 30 3.2.3 Maximum Mean De-Entropy Algorithm 32 3.2.4 MMDE Algorithm Sequence 34 3.3 Construct The Bayesian Network 35 3.3.1 Bayesian Network 35 3.3.2 Developing Bayesian Network 36 3.3.3 Parameter Learning 37 3.3.4 Variables Discretization 37 3.3.5 Propagation and Sensitivity Analysis 38 3.4 Data Collection 38 CHAPTER 4 RESULTS & ANALYSIS 39 4.1 Case Study 39 4.2 Delphi Survey Result 39 4.3 DEMATEL Result 42 4.4 Variables Quantification 48 4.4.1 Environmental Sustainability 48 4.4.2 Economic Sustainability 49 4.4.3 Social Sustainability 55 4.5 Bayesian Network Model 56 4.5.1 Propagation Analysis 57 4.5.2 Sensitivity Analysis 58 4.5.3 Managerial Implications 60 CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION 62 5.1 Conclusion 62 5.2 Future Work 63 REFERENCE 64

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