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研究生: Manzula Maulida Rahman
Manzula Maulida Rahman
論文名稱: 短期多階段風電預測誤差實用性評估之研究
Pragmatic Assessment of Prediction Error for Short-term Multistage Wind Power Prediction
指導教授: 周碩彥
Shuo-Yan Chou
口試委員: 郭伯勳
Po-Hsun Kuo
游慧光
Tiffany Yu
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 工業管理系
Department of Industrial Management
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 109
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 75
中文關鍵詞: Wind PowerWind SpeedPredictionShort-termPragmatic Error Analysis
外文關鍵詞: Wind Power, Wind Speed, Prediction, Short-term, Pragmatic Error Analysis
相關次數: 點閱:256下載:0
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Renewable Energy Management System (REMS) has been catching the world's attention due to its significant contribution to developing environmentally friendly energy sources. One of the sources for generating renewable energy is wind energy. However, the wind power output is highly volatile and intermittent owing to the characteristics of wind energy. Large-scale deployment of wind power impacts the reliability of the entire power system. Predicting adequate wind power encourages wind energy use, increases the power supply's efficiency, and ensures reliable power grid service.
This research thus focuses on predicting wind power generation using a multi-stages prediction approach. Positively influencing power generation and wind speed is the fundamental idea to predict wind speed, and the results would be used to power generation prediction input. In addition, most of the research is focused on minimizing the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error); however, there is still a weakness depending on the reliability of the prediction model based on the error measurement.
This research's findings are proposed scenarios to find a framework for predicting the wind power generation focused on the short-term time horizon. The error for wind speed prediction is precisely accurate since the error target is below 8%. The granularity of the prediction data is influences the chance of prediction to get error values. Also, for the power generation, and the overall prediction is 5.99% MAPE. The results show that real-time prediction for both different granularities is more accurate in predicting the weather variable (wind speed). Also, proposing the pragmatic ways of analyzing the prediction error. The power generation and wind speed have a striking correlation, such as cut-in class, relative class, and cut-out class, error analysis to determine the reliability of the prediction model proposed for different classes.

ABSTRACT 2 ACKNOWLEDGMENT 3 Contents 4 LIST OF FIGURES 6 LIST OF TABLES 8 1. CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 9 1.1. Background 9 1.2. Research Objectives 11 1.3. Research Limitations 11 1.4. Organization of Thesis 11 2. CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 13 2.1. Renewable Energy Issues 13 2.2. Wind Speed Prediction Issues 14 2.3. Wind Power Prediction Issues 17 CHAPTER 3 Methodology 20 3.1. Initial Analysis 23 3.1.1 Visualization 23 3.1.2 Power Curve Analysis 23 3.1.3 ANOVA Test 24 3.1.4 Auto-Correlation Test 25 3.2. Prediction Method 25 3.2.1 Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) 25 3.2.2 Masking Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) 26 3.2.3 Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) 26 3. CHAPTER 4 Result and discussion 27 4.1. Data Description 27 4.1.1. Feature Correlation – Open Data 29 4.1.2. Feature Correlation - CWB Data 37 4.1.3. Feature Extraction – Open Data 41 4.1.4. Feature Extraction – CWB Data 42 4.1.5. Auto-Correlation Analysis 43 4.2. Wind Speed Prediction 44 4.2.1. Grouping Analysis 44 4.2.2. Scenario Wind Speed Prediction – Open Data 52 4.2.1. Scenario Wind Speed Prediction – CWB Data 56 4.3. Wind Power Generation Prediction 64 4.3.1 Parameter Settings 64 4.3.2 CNN-LSTM Prediction 65 4.3.3 Error Analysis Prediction 66 4. CHAPTER 5 conclusion and future work 71 References 73

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