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研究生: 陳慶明
CHING-MING CHEN
論文名稱: 應用決策樹機制於即時性評估交鏈聚乙烯絕緣狀態之研究
Real-time Insulation Status Assessment of XLPE Based on Decision Tree Scheme
指導教授: 吳瑞南
Ruay-Nan Wu
口試委員: 張宏展
Hong-Chan Chang
謝宗煌
Tsung-Huang Hsieh
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 電資學院 - 電機工程系
Department of Electrical Engineering
論文出版年: 2010
畢業學年度: 98
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 69
中文關鍵詞: 局部放電交鏈聚乙烯絕緣狀態診斷決策樹
外文關鍵詞: partial discharge, cross-linked polyethylene, insulation Status diagnosis, decision tree.
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  地下電纜常用之絕緣材料為交鏈聚乙烯(cross-linked polyethylene, XLPE),由於地下電纜若因絕緣劣化而發生故障,會導致經濟上的損失以及安全上的危害,故為了有效預防地下配電系統事故的發生,在新設地下電纜同時裝置一套局部放電之即時監測系統,長期監控地下電纜之絕緣狀況,達到預防事故發生的效果。
  本文的分析對象為交鏈聚乙烯切片的劣化試驗資料,其試驗資料於台灣科技大學高壓實驗室進行高壓加速劣化試驗量測而得,經由電腦程序將其訊號濾波與化簡,將化簡後的資料進行資料轉換並利用特徵萃取找出能判別其絕緣劣化狀態的特徵值,本文使用的特徵為分別是放電總合之區域平均放電量及其斜率曲線與區域平均放電量,其特性分別為各試驗區域平均放電量相似度極高、斜率曲線的轉折特性與區間極值差的階梯狀上升特性;最後利用決策樹機制歸納其特徵值並產生if-then規則進而建立絕緣診斷的即時判斷規則。
  決策樹模型包含六個決策節點與十個葉節點,其決策樹對測試資料即時判斷的成功率,初期平均成功率為95.6%,中期平均成功率則有89.8%,末期平均成功率則是81.3%。


  The cross-linked polyethylene(XLPE) is the general insulation materials for underground cable. However, it might break down when the cable start to insulation deterioration and then will cause the economic loss and the damage. To perfectly prevent the damage of underground distributed system, this research set up a set of on line monitoring system of partial discharge(PD) to prevent these damages happened.
  This thesis is about the slices test of XLPE and made the high voltage and accelerated deterioration test in high voltage laboratory in NTUST. The next step is that to filter and simplified the signal and going to the data switch and further to use feature extraction methods to figure out the feature data of insulation status. This research uses three kinds of feature data that the characteristics are the high Similarity of district average discharge of each test data and the turning properties of slop curve and the stair rises properties of interval extremum deviation. The final step is to use the decision tree scheme to organize the district average discharge, slope curve and interval extremum deviation three feature data and then find the if-then rules further more to set up the on line insulation state diagnosis rules.
  The decision tree consists of six decision nodes and ten leaf nodes. The accuracy of real-time insulation status diagnosis about testing data are 95.6% during early stage of degradation、89.8% during middle stage of degradation and 81.3% during final stage of degradation.

中文摘要 I Abstract II 誌謝 IV 目錄 VI 圖目錄 IX 表目錄 XII 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研究目的與方法 2 1.3 論文章節概述 4 第二章 試驗架構與資料處理 6 2.1 局部放電介紹 6 2.1.1 局部放電定義 6 2.1.2 局部放電原理 8 2.2 局部放電檢測方式介紹 9 2.3 局部放電試驗架構 11 2.3.1 局部放電試驗架構 11 2.3.2 被試物接線說明 13 2.3.3 試驗程序與資料擷取方式 14 2.3.4 試驗結果 15 2.4 資料處理流程 16 2.5 特徵萃取 20 2.5.1 放電區域 21 2.5.2 區域平均放電量 22 2.5.3 區間極值差 23 第三章 決策樹分類 28 3.1 決策樹概述 28 3.2 決策樹歸納 29 3.3 屬性選擇指標 34 3.4 決策樹的修剪 37 3.5 利用決策樹找出規則 39 第四章 資料結果之分析 40 4.1 決策樹之特徵屬性 40 4.1.1 區域平均放電量 40 4.1.2 區域平均放電量之斜率變化曲線 42 4.1.3 區域平均放電量之區間極值差 42 4.2 特徵值屬性的區段化 46 4.2.1 區域平均放電量 46 4.2.2 區域平均放電量之斜率變化曲線 48 4.2.3 區域平均放電量之區間極值差 53 4.3 建立決策樹 55 4.4 決策樹歸納結果 60 4.5 絕緣狀態判斷的成功率 62 第五章 結論與未來展望 64 5.1 結論 64 5.2 未來展望 64 參考文獻 66 作者簡介 69

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