在人口老化的社會與開發的國家，平衡血液供需已成為人們關注的議題。本研究利用2010-2014年台北捐血中心資料庫之捐血者基本資料，以台北捐血中心管轄範圍（包含：台北市、新北市、基隆市、金門與馬祖）2010-2011年首次捐獻全血之捐血者觀測3年為分析對象，運用存活分析與資料探勘中的分群與分類方法分析首次捐血者的回返行為。本研究的主要結論包括：(1)在回返行為部分，Kaplan-Meier 估計法及 Cox比例危險模型指出女性、在固定式的捐血點捐血者、與未參與活動贊助之捐血者有較高的回返率，指出內在動機比外在動機更能夠促成捐血者的回返。(2)基於人口統計變數與短期的觀測時間（1年或1.5年）透過決策樹模型建立長期承諾捐血或中途退出的捐血者，提供管理者及早針對不同類型捐血者進行管理介入的可能。本研究結果將可作為捐血機構未來召募及行銷決策的重要參考。

The aging society and the shift of the population structure in developed countries raise concerns about our ability to meet potential blood needs. Attracting and recruiting more blood donors has become a crucial issue for blood donation organizations. In this study, the data of donation histories of whole-blood donors collected from Taipei Blood Center from 2010-2014 in Taiwan are used. In particular, the first-time whole blood donors recruited in Taipei Blood Center jurisdictional district (include: Taipei City, New Taipei City and Keelung City, Kinmen and Matsu) in year 2010 and 2011 were observed for more than 3 years. Survival analyses and data mining methods were used to analyze and characterize the donors’ return behavior. The main findings include (1) The Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox proportional-hazards regression model show that female donors, donors donated at fixed donation sites, and donors who were not recruited via specific promotion event or blood drive have higher return rate. Cultivating intrinsic motivations thus might be more important than providing extrinsic incentives. (2) The decision tree model based on donors’ demographic variables and a shorter surveillance period (1 or 1.5 years) can be built to predict the long-term commitment or drop-out behavior. Different strategies can be designed for targeted blood donor groups to provide early intervention. The results of this study will be useful for the development of recruiting and marketing strategies for the blood donation organizations in the future.

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