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研究生: 李啟源
Chi-Yuan Lee
論文名稱: 專案風險管理知識架構設計與探討
Design and Implication of Project Risk Management Knowledge Framework
指導教授: 黃世禎
Sun-jen Huang
口試委員: 朱慧德
Huey-Der Chu
周子銓
Tzu-Chuan Chou
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 資訊管理系
Department of Information Management
論文出版年: 2007
畢業學年度: 95
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 73
中文關鍵詞: 風險管理知識管理風險監控
外文關鍵詞: Risk Management, Knowledge Management, Risk Monitoring and Control
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  • 失敗為成功之母,這句成語的前提應該是聞過則喜但「絕不二過」,如此才能真正由錯誤中學習改正,最終獲致成功,而不是一錯再錯沉淪下去,反與成功背道而行。執行專案也是如此,經由前人的實際執行專案結果所獲得的成功與失敗經驗,對後人都是最重要的典範或引鑑,因此組織必須建立知識管理機制,持續累積寶貴的專案管理知識,方能使專案執行趨吉避凶。
    專案的不確定性,是專案風險的主要來源,也是造成專案失敗的重要成因之ㄧ。然而對專案而言,當基準設定之後,唯一可以確定的,就是資源是有限的,而其他的一切則仍舊具有不確定性。未知的不確定因素無法消除,伴隨的風險亦不會消失,因此只能正視它、了解它與因應它,最後讓專案風險盡可能地不要發生,如此專案方可如預期般的順利完成。
    基於上述之問題,本研究希望經由專案風險管理與知識管理的理論探討,來尋求二者間的有效整合,以規劃建立專案風險的問題域(風險因子)與解答域(風險回應對策)的經驗知識學習與應用架構,使專案的風險能被有效地評估、監控與減緩,進而提昇專案執行的成功機率。


    There is an idiom that “Failure is the mother of success”, however, the prerequisite of this idiom should be “Glad to have one’s error pointed out” but “Never repeat the same mistake". By doing so, one can really learn to correct oneself from the mistakes and then succeed in the end instead of making mistakes again and again, sinking into corruption and thus running counter to success. It is true in the same way for carrying out a project. The experience of success and failure obtained from the results of actual execution of projects by predecessors will be the most important model or guidance to the next people. Thus, an organization should set up a mechanism of knowledge management to continuously accumulate valuable project management knowledge so that the follow-up projects can be carried out by pursuing good fortune and avoiding disasters.

    The uncertainty of a project is the main source of the risk of the project, and also one of the important factors that cause the project failure. However, as for a project, once the criterion is defined, the only factor that can be sure is that the resources are limited and all other factors are still uncertain. If on cannot eliminate the unknown uncertainties, the risk will not disappear as well. Thus, one should face it, understand it and handle it to prevent the project risk from taking place as much as possible so that the project can be completed smoothly as expected.

    In view of the above-mentioned problems, in this study, the theoretical investigation into risk management and knowledge management of the projects is conducted so as to find a way to integrate them effectively. Consequently, the knowledge from experience, the application platform for the problem domain (risk factor) and the solution domain (countermeasure for the risk) of the project can be planned and established. Thus, the risk of a project can be assessed, controlled and slowed down effectively and then the probability of the success of the project can be improved.

    摘 要 III 誌 謝 VI 目 錄 VIII 表 目 錄 X 圖 目 錄 XI 第一章 緒論 1 1.1研究背景 1 1.2研究動機 2 1.3研究目的 3 1.4研究程序 4 1.5本文架構 6 第二章 文獻探討 7 2.1專案管理的相關文獻探討 7 2.2專案風險管理的相關文獻探討 10 2.3知識管理的相關文獻探討 14 2.3軟體風險因子與風險回應策略的相關文獻探討 21 2.4 小結 33 第三章 專案風險知識管理流程架構 34 3.1管理組織架構 34 3.2流程架構探討 36 3.3專案風險知識管理架構與模式設計 42 3.4小結 45 第四章 風險知識管理資訊系統規劃 47 4.1使用需求情境 47 4.2系統架構 48 4.3資料庫設計 49 4.4系統整合與擴充 50 第五章 個案探討 51 5.1 案例資料蒐集 51 5.2專案案例 52 5.3小結 55 第六章 結論與建議 56 6.1研究貢獻 56 6.2後續研究建議 56 參考文獻 57 I中文部分 57 II英文部分 57 III網站部分 60 作者簡介 61

    I中文部分
    [1] 尤克強 著,“知識管理與創新”,天下遠見出版股份有限公司,2001年9月
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    [3] 林東清,知識管理,智勝,2003 年
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    [7] 錢一一(譯),湯姆.迪馬克(Tom DeMarco)、提摩西.李斯特(Timothy Lister),與熊共舞:軟體專案的風險管理(Waltzing With Bears:Managing Risk on Software Project),經濟新潮社,2004年
    [8] Pankaj Jalote 著,沈君豪、楊博裕、陳志良 譯,「CMM最佳實務」,維科圖書有限公司,民國92年。

    II英文部分
    [9] Beckman, Thomas J.,A Methodology for Knowledge Management. International Association of Science and Technology for Development's International Conference on AI and soft Computing , Canada : Banff., 1997.
    [10] CMMI Product Development Team, “CMMI-SE/SW/IPPD,” Software Engineering Institute, November, 2000。
    [11] Curtis R. Cook, "Just Enough Project Management", McGraw Hill, NewYork, 2004.
    [12] DavenPort,Thomas H., David W. De Long, and Michael C. Beers, Successful knowledge management projects , Sloan management reviews , 1998
    [13] Harris, D.B., “Creating a Knowledge Centric Information Technology Environment”, http://www.dbharris.com/ckc.htm, 1996
    [14] Hai Zhuge, “Knowledge flow management for distributed team software development”, Knowledge-Based Systems Vol. 15 issue 8 pp. 465-471, 2002.
    [15] Jaak Jurison, “Software Project Management: The Manager’s View,” Communications of the Association for Information Systems (CAIS), Vol. 2, Article 17, September 1999.
    [16] James J. Jiang, Gary Klein, T. Selwyn Ellis, “A Measure of Software Development Risk,” IEEE, 2001.
    [17] Liz Maclachlan, “Making Project Management for you”, Library Association Publishing , London , 1996
    [18] Lewis , James P . , “ Project Planning , Scheduling and Control” , Irwin Professional Publishing , 1995
    [19] Linda Wallace, Mark Keil, “Software Project Risks and Their Effect on Outcomes,” Communication of the ACM, Vol. 47, No.4, April 2004。
    [20] Linda Wallace, Mark Keil, Arun Rai, “How Software Project Risk Affects Project Performance: An Investigation of the Dimensions of Risk and an Exploratory Model,” PMI-ISSIG, Volume 35 Number 2, Spring 2004。
    [21] PMI, ANSI/PMI 99-001-2004, “A Guide to the Project Managemnet Body of Knowledge (PMBOK guide)”,3rd Edition,2004.
    [22] Might , R . J . , & Fischer , W . A . , “ The Role of Structural Factors in Determining Project Management Success” , IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management , May , p71-77 , 1985
    [23] Marvin J. Carr, Suresh L. Konda, Ira Monarch, F. Carol Ulrich, Clay F. Walker, “Taxonomy-Based Risk Identification,” SEI (Software Engineering Institute), June 1993.
    [24] Mark Keil, Paul E. Cule, Kalle Lyytinen, Roy C. Schmidt, “A Framework for Identifying Software Project Risks,” Communication of the ACM, Vol. 41, No.11, November 1998。
    [25] Nonaka,I.& Takeuchi,H.,The Knowledge Creating Company,New York:Oxford University Press,1995.
    [26] Pinto J . K . , and D . P . Slevin , “ Critical Factors in Successful Project Management” , IEEEE Transactions on Engineering Management , February 1987 .
    [27] Pinto J. K., Kharbanda O. P., “How to Fail in Project Management (Without Really Trying) ”, Business Horizons, Vol. 39, No. 4, pp. 45-53, 1996.
    [28] Polanyi, M.,The Tacit DimenSion,New York:Anchor Day Books,1967
    [29] Quinn. James Brian et al., “Managing Professional Intellect: Making the Most of the Best”, Harvard Business Review Vol.74 Issue 2 pp.71-80, April 1996.
    [30] The Standish Group, “Chao Denogrphics - 2004 Third Quarter Research Report”, The Standish Group International Inc., 2004
    [31] Thomas H. Davenport and John Glaser "Just-in-Time Delivery Comes to Knowledge Management" Harvard Business Review, Jul2002, Vol. 80 Issue 7, p107

    III網站部分
    [32] The Standish Group, http://standishgroup.com//

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