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研究生: 邵詩婾
Shih-yu Shao
論文名稱: 台灣證券股票市場證券分析師從眾現象之研究
Herding Among Security Analysts In Taiwan Stock Market
指導教授: 張琬喻
Woan-Yuh Jang
口試委員: 劉代洋
Day-Yang Liu
曾盛恕
Seng-Sue Tsang
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2010
畢業學年度: 98
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 82
中文關鍵詞: 分析師推薦股票從眾現象股價波動市場情緒
外文關鍵詞: Analyst, Stock Recommendation, Herding Behavior, Stock Volatility, Market Sentiment
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  • 本研究依據分析師推薦個股次數的資料,利用Lakonishok, Shleifer and Vishny (1992)之從眾指標來衡量分析師的從眾行為。目的在探討台灣股票市場分析師推薦個股從眾行為之特性,並探討分析師從眾行為對股價波動的影響。
    實證顯示研究期間內,分析師確實存在從眾推薦的現象,且空頭市場的從眾現象比多頭市場更嚴重,原因可能是代理問題導致,分析師會避免出錯而有互相模仿的情況,導致從眾現象發生。
    探討分析師從眾行為與股票特性之關聯部分,實證得出資訊較不透明及法人持股比例較低的企業分析師從眾情況比較明顯,表示分析師對於公司治理較差的企業比較有從眾推薦的現象;當季報酬率高及市場情緒高昂時分析師推薦的個股也容易產生高度的從眾現象,表示分析師容易受到市場的影響而做出相同的投資策略;每股盈餘降低、低現金流量比及資產報酬率降低等因素也會造成分析師的從眾現象更明顯,表示當壞消息發生時,分析師會更敏銳的修正報告,因此分析師賣方的從眾推薦現象更明顯。
    檢視分析師從眾現象對股票波動的影響,實證發現分析師買進推薦從眾程度愈高的企業股價波動愈低,表示分析師的買進從眾推薦具有穩定股價的功能。
    綜合以上所述,本研究推論分析師之從眾行為主要因為代理問題所導致,由其當壞消息發生的時候,為了避免出具特立獨行的錯誤報告,而產生互相模仿的行為。


    We estimate analysts’ herding prosperity with I/B/E/S recommended number data. Compared to prior studies, our paper has four unique features. First, we find the Bear Market is more herding than the Bull Market. Because there is more bad news in the Bear Marker, analyst would avoid errors to imitate the other analyst. Second, we find the company with the less government corporation, the analysts are more herding. There is asymmetric information in the less corporation government, and the research cost is higher. So it is caused by direct mutual imitation. Third, the bad news including the less earns per share、the lower cash flow rate and the lower return of assets would cause more herding. Because the analysts would more sensitive revise their recommendations to the same direction. Forth, it is negative relationship between herding behavior and stock volatility. The herding behavior would cause the less stock volatility. It means that herding behavior could stabilize the stock volatility.

    第一章 緒論 1  第一節 研究動機與目的 1  第二節 研究問題 4  第三節 研究架構 5 第二章 文獻探討 6  第一節 從眾行為的理論發展 6  第二節 從眾行為對於股價波動 9  第三節 分析師追蹤相關文獻 11  第四節 分析師的角色 13 第三章 研究方法 14  第一節 資料來源 14  第二節 研究期間與選取向本標準 16  第三節 資料處理與變數衡量 17  第四節 研究模式 29 第四章 實證結果與分析 33  第一節 敘述性統計 33  第二節 分析師的從眾行為 45  第三節 分析師從眾推薦與股票特性之關連性 48  第四節 分析師從眾行為對股價波動之影響 59 第五章 結論 67  第一節 研究結論 67  第二節 研究貢獻 69  第三節 研究限制 69  第四節 研究建議 69 參考文獻 71 中文文獻 71 英文文獻 72

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