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研究生: 孫新銘
Hsin-ming Sun
論文名稱: 台灣股市機構投資人從眾行為之研究
Herding Behavior of Institutional Investors in Taiwan Stock Market
指導教授: 徐中琦
Jonchi Shyu
口試委員: 林丙輝
Bing-Huei Lin
張琬喻
none
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2006
畢業學年度: 94
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 86
中文關鍵詞: 三大法人法人機構投資人從眾
外文關鍵詞: institutional investor
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  • 本研究的目的在於探討台灣股票市場中機構投資人的從眾行為,並進一步分析影響從眾行為的因素以及造成法人從眾的主要原因。本研究利用1999年初到2004年底長達6年的日資料,以Sias(2004)的從眾模型指標來衡量從眾行為,並且將機構投資人區分為外資、投信基金、自營商等三大法人,以比較從眾行為在不同類型機構投資人之間的差異。
    本研究的實證結果顯示就整體來看,台灣股市中的法人確實存在從眾行為,而在將外資、投信基金、以及自營商區分開來後,以投信基金從眾的程度最為突出,外資的從眾行為也相當明顯,至於自營商則不存在顯著的從眾行為。在市場環境對從眾行為的影響方面,多頭期間與空頭期間的從眾行為沒有顯著差異,SARS與2004總統大選風波等突發重大事件的衝擊也非常有限,顯示法人的從眾行為應非衝動或本能等不理性因素所造成。
    本研究還發現雖然台灣股市中的法人為動能交易者,但從眾行為幾乎不受到動能交易的影響。此外,法人需求與股價報酬呈現正相關,法人從眾的股票並不會出現報酬逆轉的現象。在比較不同規模的公司間從眾行為的差異後,顯示從眾行為的強度與規模呈現負相關,由此推論法人從眾主要是因互相猜測彼此交易的訊息所導致。


    This research takes the approach of Sias(2004) to evaluate institutional herding in Taiwan stock market, using daily data from the beginning of 1999 to the end of 2004. We further examine the factors that affect herding, and try to find the main cause that results in institutional herding. Since in our data institutional investors in Taiwan are categorized as Foreign Investors, Investment Trusts , and Security Dealers, according to their sources of funds, our research may evaluate the differences among institutional investor classes in their herding behavior.
    The result of this research reveals that as a whole institutional investors herd in Taiwan, among them Investment Trusts herd most, the herding of Foreign Investors is also obvious, but there is no evidence of Security Dealers’ herding. The difference between herding in bull market and herding in bear market is not significant, and the crises such as SARS or the turbulence after the 2004 Presidential Election also show little impact, suggesting that institutional herding is not driven by market stress or impulse.
    Although institutional investors in Taiwan are momentum traders, little of their herding results from momentum trading. Besides, we find no evidence of return reversals, to the contrary, institutional demand is found to be positively related to returns over several days which follow the trading. Moreover, institutional investors in Taiwan are more likely to herd in smaller capitalization securities. The results are most consistent with the hypothesis that institutional herding primarily results from institutions inferring information from each other’s trades.

    第壹章 緒論……………………………………………………………………………1 第一節 研究動機與背景………………………………………………………………1 第二節 研究目的………………………………………………………………………4 第三節 研究架構與流程………………………………………………………………5 第貳章 文獻探討………………………………………………………………………7 第一節 從眾行為的定義………………………………………………………………7 第二節 從眾行為的成因………………………………………………………………9 第三節 衡量從眾行為的相關模型……………………………………………………15 第四節 國外股市從眾現象的實證……………………………………………………22 第五節 國內股市從眾現象的實證……………………………………………………26 第參章 研究方法………………………………………………………………………30 第一節 研究樣本………………………………………………………………………30 第二節 從眾行為的衡量方法…………………………………………………………32 第三節 不同類別法人的從眾行為比較………………………………………………36 第四節 影響從眾行為的因素與從眾行為的原因探討………………………………42 第五節 研究假設………………………………………………………………………47 第肆章 實證結果………………………………………………………………………50 第一節 樣本特性分析…………………………………………………………………50 第二節 從眾指標的實證結果…………………………………………………………52 第三節 三大法人從眾行為比較………………………………………………………54 第四節 影響從眾行為因素與從眾行為成因的實證結果……………………………60 第伍章 結論與建議……………………………………………………………………69 第一節 研究結論………………………………………………………………………69 第二節 研究建議………………………………………………………………………72 參考文獻…………………………………………………………………………………74 附錄一……………………………………………………………………………………78 附錄二……………………………………………………………………………………80

    中文文獻
    1. 江宏儒,「股票市場從眾行為之探討:新興市場與已開發國家之比較」,高雄第一科技大學財務管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國九十一年。
    2. 李春安、賴藝文,「股市劇烈變動區間台灣股票市場與本國機構投資人從眾行為之研究」,台灣管理學刊,第五卷,第二期,第231~268頁,民國九十四年。
    3. 杜樹森,「機構投資人交易行為對股票市場之影響-以國內共同基金為例」,政治大學財務管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國八十五年。
    4. 林伊玫,「機構投資人從眾行為研究-以封閉型基金為例」,國立中山大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國八十四年。
    5. 林雋琦,「國內共同基金從眾現象及原因分析」,雲林科技大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國九十年。
    6. 林皇瑞,「法人機構從眾行為之研究-以證券自營商與外資為研究對象」國立台灣科技大學財務金融研究所未出版碩士論文,民國九十三年。
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    9. 郭效珮,「共同基金群集行為及其對股價影響之研究」,朝陽科技大學財務金融研究所未出版碩士論文,民國八十九年。
    10. 曾麗文,「台灣開放式股票型基金從眾行為與基金績效之關係分析」,朝陽科技大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國九十一年。
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    英文文獻
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