Food fulfillment is one of important things that can affect the stability of a country. The rapid population growth but not matches with food production ability become a threat in the future, because there is no balance between supply and demand. In 2011, rice shortage happen in East Java, which is cause rice shortage at local and national level. This phenomenon is cause anomaly weather, pest attack, land mutation, weak network supply chain system, distribution, transportation, etc. and also that cause dependency on import rice higher. This research purposes are to identify the holistic process of rice fulfillment in the context of supply chain system and analyze possible risk occur as important variables and provide projection fulfillment capabilities in the future using simulation scenario. System Dynamics methods selected because it can solve problem about the complexity of interaction between variables and the behavior of system. The advantages using System Dynamics as tools analysis are combine qualitative and quantitative method, also model can provide reliable forecast and can generate scenarios to test alternative assumptions and decisions. Research contributions are formulated policy improvements in rice fulfillment, provide more robust sensitivities and scenarios, and also predict the impact of major changes accurately for uncertainty condition by sensitivity test. The result shows that the main variable most affect the production of rice is land availability. Utilize potential paddy harvest area or call as extensification strategy and adding resource input to planting process, such as: seed, fertilizers and pesticides that define as intensification strategy can increase production to stock rice. Utilize secondary products, such as: corn, sweet potato and cassava can increase rice availability in nutrient context, also to reduce dependency on imported rice.

Food fulfillment is one of important things that can affect the stability of a country. The rapid population growth but not matches with food production ability become a threat in the future, because there is no balance between supply and demand. In 2011, rice shortage happen in East Java, which is cause rice shortage at local and national level. This phenomenon is cause anomaly weather, pest attack, land mutation, weak network supply chain system, distribution, transportation, etc. and also that cause dependency on import rice higher. This research purposes are to identify the holistic process of rice fulfillment in the context of supply chain system and analyze possible risk occur as important variables and provide projection fulfillment capabilities in the future using simulation scenario. System Dynamics methods selected because it can solve problem about the complexity of interaction between variables and the behavior of system. The advantages using System Dynamics as tools analysis are combine qualitative and quantitative method, also model can provide reliable forecast and can generate scenarios to test alternative assumptions and decisions. Research contributions are formulated policy improvements in rice fulfillment, provide more robust sensitivities and scenarios, and also predict the impact of major changes accurately for uncertainty condition by sensitivity test. The result shows that the main variable most affect the production of rice is land availability. Utilize potential paddy harvest area or call as extensification strategy and adding resource input to planting process, such as: seed, fertilizers and pesticides that define as intensification strategy can increase production to stock rice. Utilize secondary products, such as: corn, sweet potato and cassava can increase rice availability in nutrient context, also to reduce dependency on imported rice.

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