簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: 陳玉萍
Melissa Gunawan Hartanto
論文名稱: 印尼股票市場於新冠肺炎疫情前後是否存在從眾行為?
Does Herding Behavior Exist in Indonesian Stock Market - Pre-COVID and During-COVID Periods?
指導教授: 陳俊男
Chun-Nan Chen
口試委員: 鄭仁偉
Jen-Wei Cheng
林軒竹
Hsuan-Chu Lin
陳嬿如
Yen -Ru Chen
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2023
畢業學年度: 111
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 42
中文關鍵詞: -
外文關鍵詞: Investors, Extreme Market Condition, Crisis Period, Up and Down Market, Cross-Sectional Absolute Deviation Approach, Indonesian Stock Exchange
相關次數: 點閱:96下載:0
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報

  • This paper examines whether herding behavior is present in the Indonesian stock market periods before and during COVID-19 happens. The pandemic and resulting economic fallout caused significant hardship for people all around the world. In behavioral finance, market participants are believed to be irrational and react differently to different market conditions. In highly uncertain conditions of the market brought upon by COVID-19, investors may assume defeatist attitude and panic sentiments, conveying them into irrational behavior such as herding. Further investigation into studying investor herding behavior in Indonesia is needed to gain a better understanding of their investing behaviors. This study uses Cross-Sectional Absolute Deviation Approach (CSAD) to detect herding behavior and uses all public listed companies from Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The results show that no herding is found before and during COVID-19, including in both up and down markets. Several proposed interpretations of these results include investors having the tendency to act cautious when facing a crisis, improved financial literacy courtesy of the government, investors devoting more time and energy on their finances due to lockdowns and work from home protocols, the possibility that Indonesia is too diverse to detect herding on a market level thus the sample needs to be more specific, along with the emergence of various online trading platforms inviting new, younger investors.

    COVER PAGE.............................................................................................i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS..............................................................................ii ABSTRACT...............................................................................................iii TABLE OF CONTENTS................................................................................iv LIST OF TABLES........................................................................................vi CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION........................................................................1 1.1 Motivation and Background.................................................................................1 1.2 Research Purpose and Research Questions.............................................3 1.3 Structure of this Research................................................................3 CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW...............................................................5 2.1 Herding Behavior and Its Properties....................................................5 2.1.1 Concept of Herding Behavior.....................................................5 2.1.2 Properties of Herding Behavior...................................................6 2.2 Reasons for Herding Behavior...........................................................7 2.2.1 Fear and Uncertainty...............................................................7 2.2.2. Sociological Factors...............................................................8 2.2.3 Over/Under Reaction...............................................................9 2.2.4 Investor Sentiment................................................................10 2.3 Empirical Evidence.....................................................................11 iv CHAPTER 3. DATA & METHODOLOGY...........................................................14 3.1 Sampling and Methodology............................................................14 3.2 Research Variables......................................................................14 3.2.1 Dependent Variable...............................................................14 3.2.2 Independent Variable.............................................................15 CHAPTER 4. RESULTS & DISCUSSION...........................................................17 4.1 Descriptive Statistics....................................................................17 4.2 Empirical Results and Discussion.....................................................18 4.2.1 Testing for Herding Behavior Before and During COVID-19...............18 4.2.2 Testing for Herding Behavior in Up and Down Markets.....................21 4.2.3 Sensitivity Analysis...............................................................23 CHAPTER 5. CONCLUSION..........................................................................27 5.1 Conclusion.........................................................................................................27 5.2 Limitations.........................................................................................................27 5.3 Recommendations.......................................................................27 REFERENCES...........................................................................................29

    Aharon, D. Y. (2020). Uncertainty, Fear and Herding Behavior: Evidence from Size-Ranked Portfolios. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 1–18.
    Ajaz, T., & Kumar, A. S. (2018). HERDING IN CRYPTO-CURRENCY MARKETS. Annals of Financial Economics, 13(02), 1850006.
    Akerlof, G.A., & Kranton, R. (2000). Economics and Identity. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115, 715-753.
    Baddeley, M. (2010) “Herding, social influence and economic decision-making: Socio- psychological and neuroscientific analyses,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 365(1538), pp. 281–290.
    Barberis, N., Andrei S., & Robert V.. (1998). A Model of Investor Sentiment. Journal of Financial Economics, 49(3), 307-343.
    Bekiros, S., Jlassi, M., Lucey, B., Naoui, K., & Uddin, G. S. (2017). Herding behavior, market sentiment and volatility: Will the bubble resume? The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 42, 107–131.
    Bikhchandani, S., Hirshleifer, D. and Welch, I. (1992). A theory of fads, fashion, custom, and cultural change as informational cascades. Journal of Political Economy, 100(5), 992-1026.
    Bogdan, S., Sustar, N., & Drazenovic, B. O. (2022). Herding Behavior in Developed, Emerging, and Frontier European Stock Markets during COVID-19 Pandemic. Journal of Risk Financial Management 2022, 15(9), 400.
    Bouzid, K.N., Hui, W. and Fuwei, J. (2020) “INDUSTRY HERDING BEHAVIOR IN BULL AND BEAR MARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM MOROCCO,” Revue Économie, Gestion et Société , 1(26).
    Bowe, M., & Domuta, D. (2004). Investor herding during financial crisis: A clinical study of the Jakarta Stock Exchange. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 12(4), 387–418.
    Bui, N. D., Nguyen, L. T. B., & Nguyen, N. T. T. (2015). Herd behaviour in Southeast Asian stock markets — An empirical investigation*. Acta Oeconomica, 65(3), 413–429.
    Caparrelli, F., D’Arcangelis, A. M., & Cassuto, A. (2004). Herding in the Italian Stock Market: A Case of Behavioral Finance. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 5(4), 222–230.
    Chang, E. C., Cheng, J. W., & Khorana, A. (2000). An examination of herd behavior in equity markets: An international perspective. Journal of Banking & Finance, 24(10), 1651–1679.
    Choi, K.-H., & Yoon, S.-M. (2020). Investor Sentiment and Herding Behavior in the Korean Stock Market. International Journal of Financial Studies, 8(2), 34.
    Choi, K.-H., & Yoon, S.-M. (2020). Investor Sentiment and Herding Behavior in the Korean Stock Market. International Journal of Financial Studies, 8(2), 34.
    Chung, C. Y., Liu, C., & Wang, K. (2015). Institutional Investor Trading in a Short Investment Horizon: Evidence from the Korean Stock Market. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 52(4), 1002–1012.
    Coskun, E. A., Lau, C. K. M., & Kahyaoglu, H. (2020). Uncertainty and herding behavior: evidence from cryptocurrencies. Research in International Business and Finance, 101284.
    Demirer, R., & Kutan, A. M. (2006). Does herding behavior exist in Chinese stock markets? Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 16(2), 123–142.
    Devenow, A., & Welch, I. (1996). Rational herding in financial economics. European Economic Review, 40(3-5), 603–615.
    Din, S.M., Mehmood, S. K., Shahzad, A., Ahmad, I., Davidyants, A., & Abu-Rumman, A. (2021) “The impact of behavioral biases on herding behavior of investors in Islamic Financial Products,” Frontiers in Psychology, 11.
    Economou, F., Hassapis, C., & Philippas, N. (2018). Investors’ fear and herding in the stock market. Applied Economics, 50(34-35), 3654-3663.
    Edwards, W. (1968). Conservatism in Human Information Processing. In B. Kleinmuntz (Ed.), Formal Representa- tion of Human Judgment (17-52). New York: Wiley.
    Fadly, S.R. (2021). Aktivitas Pasar Modal Indonesia Di Era Pandemi. Kementerian Keuangan Republik Indonesia. Available at: https://www.djkn.kemenkeu.go.id/kpknl-kupang/baca- artikel/13817/Aktivitas-Pasar-Modal-Indonesia-Di-Era-Pandemi.html [Accessed September 19, 2022].
    Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383.
    Fang, H., Chung, C.-P., Lee, Y.-H., & Yang, X. (2021). The Effect of COVID-19 on Herding Behavior in Eastern European Stock Markets. Frontiers in Public Health, 9, 695931.
    Fernández, B., Garcia‐Merino, T., Mayoral, R., Santos, V., & Vallelado, E. (2011). Herding, information uncertainty and investors’ cognitive profile. Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, 3(1), 7–33.
    Filip, A., Pochea, M., & Pece, A. (2015). The Herding Behaviour of Investors in the CEE Stocks Markets. Procedia Economics and Finance, 32, 307–315.
    Gigerenzer, G., & Goldstein, D. G. (1996). Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of bounded rationality. Psychological Review, 103(4), 650–669.
    Gleason, K. C., Mathur, I. & Peterson, M. A. (2004). Analysis of intraday herding behavior among the sector ETFs. Journal of Empirical Finance, 11(5), 681-694.
    Handayani, I. (2022) Jumlah investor Ritel Pasar Modal Terus Meningkat Selama Pandemi, investor.id. Available at: https://investor.id/market-and-corporate/294936/jumlah-investor-ritel- pasar-modal-terus-meningkat-selama-pandemi (Accessed: November 7, 2022).
    Hassan, M.T. and Jamil, S.H. (2021) “Investigative study of investor’s herding behavior during bullish and Bearish Market: A case of Pakistan Stock Exchange,” European Journal of Business and Management Research, 6(3), pp. 17–25.
    Hatemi-J, A., & Roca, E. D. (2004). Do birds of the same feather flock together? Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 14(3), 281–294.
    Hong, H., & Stein, J. C. (1999). A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets. The Journal of Finance, 54(6), 2143–2184.
    Hong, H., Kubik, J. D., & Stein, J. C. (2004). Social Interaction and Stock-Market Participation. The Journal of Finance, 59(1), 137–163.
    Hsieh, S.-F. (2013). Individual and institutional herding and the impact on stock returns: Evidence from Taiwan stock market. International Review of Financial Analysis, 29, 175–188.
    Huang, T.-C., & Wang, K.-Y. (2017). Investors’ Fear and Herding Behavior: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Market. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 53(10), 2259–2278.
    Hudson, Y. (2019). Investor Sentiment and Herding - an Empirical Study of UK Investor Sentiment and Herding Behaviour.
    Javaira, Z., & Hassan, A. (2015). An examination of herding behavior in Pakistani stock market. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 10(3), 474–490.
    Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. The Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65–91.
    Jiang, R., Wen, C., Zhang, R., & Cui, Y. (2022). Investor’s herding behavior in Asian equity markets during COVID-19 period. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal.
    Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1986). Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions. Journal of Business, 59(4), 251–78.
    Katona G. A.1975. In Psychological economics New York, NY: Elsevier.
    Kengatharan, L., & Kengatharan, N. (2014). The Influence of Behavioral Factors in Making Investment Decisions and Performance: Study on Investors of Colombo Stock Exchange, Sri Lanka. Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting, 6(1), 1.
    Keynes, J. M. (1937). The general theory of employment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 51(2), 209-223.
    Lai, M.M. & Lau, S.H. (2004). Herd behavior and market stress: the case of Malaysia. Academy of Accounting and Financial Studies Journal, 8(3), 85.
    Lin, M. C. (2018). The impact of aggregate uncertainty on herding in analysts’ stock recommendations. International Review of Financial Analysis, 57, 90-105.
    Luo, Z., & Schinckus, C. (2014). Herding behaviour in asymmetric and extreme situations: the case of China. Applied Economics Letters, 22(11), 869–873.
    Manalu, Wina. (2020). Analisis Perilaku Herding Investor pada Pasar Saham Indonesia dan Pasar Saham Thailand. Thesis.
    Mand, A. A., Janor, H., Rahim, R. A., Sarmidi, T. (2021). Herding behavior and stock market conditions. PSU Research Review.
    Medhioub, I., & Chaffai, M, (2022). Did Investor Sentiment and Herding Behavior in the MENA Region Change During Covid-19? Working Papers 1570, Economic Research Forum.
    Metwally, A. H., Eldomiaty, T., & Wahab, L. A. A. (2016). Does herding behaviour vary in bull and bear markets? Perspectives from Egypt. International Journal of Behavioural Accounting and Finance, 6(1), 26.
    OECD.org, n.d. Data show how the COVID-19 pandemic has hit all aspects of people's well-being. OECD. Available at: https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/data-show-how-the-covid-19-pandemic- has-hit-all-aspects-of-peoples-well-being.htm [Accessed September 14, 2022].
    Prasetyo, H. (2021) Gegara covid-19, Banyak Orang Habiskan Waktu lebih banyak untuk Fokus Pada investasi. Available at: https://insight.kontan.co.id/news/gegara-covid-19-banyak-orang- habiskan-waktu-lebih-banyak-untuk-fokus-pada-investasi (Accessed: November 18, 2022).
    Purwanti, T. (2022) Ternyata Pasar Modal Indonesia Dikuasai Gen Z, Ini Buktinya!, CNBC Indonesia. Available at: https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/market/20221028092701-17- 383184/ternyata-pasar-modal-indonesia-dikuasai-gen-z-ini-buktinya (Accessed: November 15, 2022).
    Rahayu, I.-R.-S. (2022). Jumlah Investor Pasar Modal Tumbuh Pesat Selama Pandemi. Kompas.com. Available at: https://money.kompas.com/read/2022/08/12/190000426/jumlah- investor-pasar-modal-tumbuh-pesat-selama-pandemi?page=all [Accessed 23 September 2022]
    Sabir, S.A. Javed, T., Khan, S. A., & Javed, M. Z. (2021) “Investment behaviour of individual investors of Pakistan stock market with moderating role of Financial Literacy,” Journal of Contemporary Issues in Business and Government, 27.
    Sadewo, R.A. and Cahyaningdyah, D. (2022) “Investor herding behavior in extreme conditions during covid-19: Study on indonesian stock market,” Management Analysis Journal, 11(1), pp. 22–29.
    Sewell, M. (no date) Herding/Crowd. Available at: http://herding-crowd.behaviouralfinance.net/ (Accessed: November 11, 2022).
    Shiller, R. J. (1995). Conversation, Information, and Herd Behavior. The American Economic Review, 85(2), 181–185.
    Shiller, R. J. (2015) Irrational exuberance - revised and expanded Third edition. Princeton University Press.
    Shiller, R. J., & Pound, J. (1989). Survey evidence on diffusion of interest and information among investors. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 12(1), 47–66.
    Shive, S. (2010). An Epidemic Model of Investor Behavior. The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 45(1), 169–198.
    Shyu, J., & Sun, H.-M. (2010). Do Institutional Investors Herd in Emerging Markets? Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Market. Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting, 2(2).
    Siadari, F. E. (2022). PENGUJIAN PERILAKU HERDING PADA PERIODE SEBELUM DAN SAAT PANDEMI COVID-19 DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA. Thesis.
    Simões Vieira, E. F., & Valente Pereira, M. S. (2015). Herding behaviour and sentiment: Evidence in a small European market. Revista de Contabilidad, 18(1), 78–86.
    Situmorang, A. (2020) Kebijakan Kerja dari Rumah Picu pertumbuhan investor Baru di Pasar Modal, merdeka.com. Available at: https://www.merdeka.com/uang/kebijakan-kerja-dari-rumah- picu-pertumbuhan-investor-baru-di-pasar-modal.html (Accessed: November 20, 2022).
    Soares, J.V., & Serra, A.P. (2005). “Overreaction” and “Underreaction”:-Evidence for the Portuguese Stock Market -.
    Spyrou, S. (2013). Herding in financial markets: a review of the literature. Review of Behavioural Finance, 5(2), 175–194.
    The Jakarta Post, 2020. It's time to buy Cheap Bluechip shares, say securities analysts. The Jakarta Post. Available at: https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/03/23/its-time-to-buy-cheap- bluechip-shares-say-securities-analysts.html [Accessed September 19, 2022].
    Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science, 185(4157), 1124–1131.
    Wardah, H. (2022) Trend Investasi Digital Dan Transaksi digital di Masa Pandemi, PAJAK.COM. Available at: https://www.pajak.com/pwf/trend-investasi-digital-dan-transaksi-digital-di-masa- pandemi/ (Accessed: November 20, 2022).
    Werner F. M. De Bondt, & Thaler, R. (1985). Does the Stock Market Overreact? The Journal of Finance, 40(3), 793–805.
    Yang, X., & Luo, Y. (2014). Rumor Clarification and Stock Returns: Do Bull Markets Behave Differently from Bear Markets? Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 50(1), 197–209.

    無法下載圖示 全文公開日期 2025/01/06 (校內網路)
    全文公開日期 2025/01/06 (校外網路)
    全文公開日期 2025/01/06 (國家圖書館:臺灣博碩士論文系統)
    QR CODE