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研究生: 葉柏麟
Po-Lin Yeh
論文名稱: 基於灰色類神經小波預測系統
A Novel Prediction Method Based on Grey Neural Network with Wavelet Features Correction
指導教授: 范欽雄
Chin-Shyurng Fahn
徐演政
Yen-Tseng Hsu
口試委員: 馮輝文
Huei-Wen Ferng
譚旦旭
Tan-Hsu Tan
葉治宏
Jerome Yeh
黃永發
Yung-Fa Huang
簡福榮
Fu-Rong Jean
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 電資學院 - 資訊工程系
Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering
論文出版年: 2017
畢業學年度: 105
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 128
中文關鍵詞: 灰色預測FCM 網路LVQ 網路傅立葉殘差修正小波轉換群聚分析
外文關鍵詞: Grey prediction, FCM Network, LVQ Network, Fourier Residual Correction, Wavelet Transform, Cluster Analysis
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  • 本論文提出一種新穎的預測方法GFLW_GRVG(Grey Fourier FCM-LVQ based on GRVG with Wavelet correction),其以股票價格的漲跌幅度來分析,進而提高未來股價預測系統的準確性。
    此預測系統先使用灰色預測搭配傅立葉殘差修正預測未來股票指數,再由LVQ(Learning Vector Quantization)神經網路與FCM(Fuzzy C-means) 網路進行分群分析。群聚分析中FCM-LVQ網路基於GRVG(Grey Relational Vector Grade)進行分析,新的分析方法將與傳統的LVQ神經網路不同,它能更準確的篩選出獲勝神經元。再將股價指數的漲幅度經由類神經網路群聚分類後,訓練出訓練區間資料的分類方法,並且根據此分類方法得到預測的股價指數的群集,經由群聚分析後的群集有自己本身的特性,將這些群集分別以小波轉換修正其誤差值,以獲得最佳的預測值。
    經實驗結果證明,GFLW_GRVG預測系統改善了參考值不足及運算時間的問題,讓此預測系統不論是趨勢走向或是盤整走向都有顯著的進步,更擁有高準確度的預測表現。


    This thesis proposes a novel forecasting method, GFLW_GRVG, using the growth rate of stock prices to analyze and raise the accuracy of stock price prediction systems in the future. The prediction system involves grey prediction with Fourier residual correction to forecast the future stock index, which will be analyzed by LVQ (learning vector quantization) neural network and FCM (fuzzy C-means) network. In cluster analysis, the FCM-LVQ network analysis is based on GRVG (grey relational vector grade). The new analytical method which can select winning neurons more precisely will be different from the traditional LVQ neural network. The artificial neural networks create clusters out of the growth rate of the stock index and train the new analytical method to classify interval data, predicting the clusters of stock index via this classification method. The error rate of the analyzed clusters with their own properties will be corrected by wavelet transform so that the best prediction value can be found.
    Experimental results show that the GFLW_GRVG prediction system improves the problems of insufficient reference value and operation time. The forecasting system has significant progress not only in stock trends but also in stock consolidation. Furthermore, its predictive performance obtains high accuracy as compared to other schemes.

    TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF TABLES Chapter 1.Introduction 1.1 Research background and motivation 1.2 Purpose of study 1.3 Research methods 1.4 Study structure Chapter 2.Literature Review 2.1 Grey system 2.1.1 Grey relational analysis (GRA) 2.1.2 GM (1,1) 2.1.3 Grey Fourier residual correction 2.2 Artificial neural networks (ANNs) 2.2.1 Neural network architecture 2.2.2 Type of neural network 2.2.3 Fuzzy C-means clustering 2.2.4 Learning vector quantization (LVQ) 2.3 Sliding window 2.4 Root-mean-square error (RMSE) 2.5 Wavelet transform 2.5.1 Continuous wavelet transform 2.5.2 Discrete wavelet transform (DWT) 2.5.3 Discrete wavelet frame transform 2.6 Index Selector 2.6.1 Put-call parity (PCP) 2.6.2 Vector error correction model (VECM) and vector moving average model (VMA) 2.6.3 Moving averages - simple and exponential 2.6.4 BIAS Chapter 3.Research methods 3.1Preliminary treatment of data 3.1.1 GM (1,1) and grey Fourier residual correction 3.1.2 Average information ratio 3.2 Cluster analysis 3.2.1 Acquiring the labeled data for the first stage of LVQ from the FCM clustering algorithm 3.2.2 LVQGRVG clustering algorithm 3. 3 Data post-processing 3.3.1 Calculation of the corrected prediction values for characteristic clusters 3.3.2 Calculate the RMSE of each eigenvalue training sample Chapter 4.Experimental Results 4.1GFLWGRVG preliminary treatment of data 4.1.1 Grey prediction GM (1,1) 4.1.2 Fourier residual correction 4.1.3 Clustering vector selection 4.2GFLWGRVG clustering analysis 4.3GFLWGRVG post-processing 4.4GFLWGRVG prediction method Chapter 5.Conclusions and Future Prospects 5.1 Conclusions 5.2 Future prospects References

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