研究生: |
江泰利 TAI-LI CHIANG |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
多資產股權連結結構型商品之風險分析 Risk Analysis of Multi-asset Equity Linked Structured Products |
指導教授: |
繆維中
Daniel Wei-Chung Miao |
口試委員: |
劉代洋
Day-Yang Liu 繆維中 Daniel Wei-Chung Miao 張琬喻 Woan-Yuh Jang 林昌碩 Chang-Shi Lin |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 財務金融研究所 Graduate Institute of Finance |
論文出版年: | 2022 |
畢業學年度: | 110 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 69 |
中文關鍵詞: | 結構型商品 、股權連結 、蒙地卡羅模擬 、風險值 、期望缺口 、多資產 |
外文關鍵詞: | FCN, Expected shortfall |
相關次數: | 點閱:262 下載:15 |
分享至: |
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自2008年次貸危機以來,國內金融主管機關對於高風險的投資商品,做了許多規範與限制,以避免當年雷曼兄弟倒閉造成許多投資人鉅額損失的事件再度發生。現今法令下,連結多資產股權之結構型商品(FCN結構型商品),只能針對高資產且有相關金融知識及投資經驗的專業投資人做銷售,此商品在銀行銷售商品中,屬於風險等級最高的商品。本研究針對FCN結構型商品,進行風險探討。
本研究先說明商品的合約及各項情境,以蒙地卡羅模擬分析法,針對 FCN結構型商品,進行數值分析。分析的標的包含兩資產股權連結、三資產股權連結,以及其他不同發行條件的FCN結構型商品。分析內容包含計算商品合約價值,各情境機率分析,商品風險分析,商品的績效衡量以及數個因子的敏感度分析。其中,敏感度分析是針對連結資產的波動度、相關係數,以及商品的期數做計算。
數值分析結果顯示,無論是兩資產股權連結或是三資產股權連結,波動度越高之連結標的,FCN結構型商品到期時虧損的風險越高,相關係數較高的連結標的,商品到期時虧損的風險略有降低,而商品期數長短與商品到期時虧損的風險關係不明確。比較類夏普指標的數值,若是只想拿固定配息的投資人,可以選擇低波動度的連結標的,或是階梯式觸及出場價的合約,發生轉換股票的機率最低,商品的績效最好。
投資FCN結構型商品需要事先仔細評估風險,並且選擇合適的連結標的。若遇上連結標的走勢大幅下跌的情況,除了領到固定配息,在合約到期之後會承接股票,適合想領取高固定配息並有意願承接股票的專業投資人。
After 2008 financial crisis, the domestic financial authorities have made many restrictions on high-risk investment products to avoid the recurrence of the incident that caused huge losses to many investors when Lehman Brothers collapsed. Under the current law, Fixed Coupon Note (FCN) can only be sold to the professional investors with high assets and relevant financial knowledge and investment experience. This research focuses on the risk of Fixed Coupon Note.
This research describes the contracts and scenarios of FCN first. The numerical analysis is carried out for FCN by Monte Carlo simulation analysis method. The subject of analysis includes two-asset equity link, three-asset equity link, and other FCN products with different issuance conditions. The content of analysis includes calculation of product contract value, probability analysis of each scenario, risk analysis, performance measurement and the sensitivity analysis of several factors. The sensitivity analysis includes the volatilities, correlations of linked assets, and the tenor of products.
The numerical analysis results show that whether it is a two-asset equity link or a three-asset equity link, the higher the volatility of the linked target, the higher the risk of loss when the FCN expires; the linked equity with a higher correlation, the risk of loss is slightly reduced at the product expiry; and the relationship between the tenors and the risk of FCN is not precise. Comparing the values of Sharpe-like indicators, if investors only want to take fixed coupons, they can choose low-volatility linked targets, or contracts with stepped knock-out prices which have the lowest probability of converting stocks.
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