建設公司在取得土地後，為獲得較高之投資報酬，不一定會立即進行專案開發，而常會採取延遲開發或多階段開發策略。但此兩種開發方式具有高度複雜性及不確定性，使得專案價值與開發策略之評估成為一個重要且具有實用價值的困難問題。有鑑於此，本研究將以實質選擇權及風險值的觀念，建構一個建築投資之選擇權評價與決策系統，可以合理地評估立即開發、延遲開發及多階段開發之建築投資專案的真實投資價值及風險程度，以符合實務上決策者可在延遲的任何時間點上決定開發專案或放棄專案之特性，有助於專案之開發效益與決策品質。最後，透過決策支援系統的建置，決策者可根據不同開發策略進行線上分析及比較，有助於決策者策略擬定之參考，亦可減少過度依賴個人經驗所造成的決策盲點。此外，經由案例分析結果顯示，本系統不但可以快速且有效地執行，而且能減少實務上使用實質選擇權作為建築投資之專案評價決策的進入障礙，評估結果可作為建設公司經營與決策之參考。

In order to secure a higher return on investment, real estate developers often choose to adopt a deferred or multi-stage development strategy after acquiring land. However, these strategies involve a high degree of complexity and uncertainty, thus making project valuation and development planning a very important but difficult task.
On this basis, this study develops a DSS model by real option and VaR concept. This model can assess the project value and the degree of risk in immediate, deferment, multi-stage development. At any stage in the project, the model can be used to strategically determine how to proceed by making a realistic assessment of the involved associated with each of the three strategies.
Using this DSS model, the decision maker can make an informed decision on the best strategy for proceeding with development. This model also has the advantage of taking human decision-making error out of the equation. Finally, based on our case study, the system is not only fast for decision making, but also very efficient at reducing the complexity associated with using real options for project valuation. It therefore provides a useful reference for real estate developers when making strategic decisions.

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