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研究生: Danu Koeswara
Danu - Koeswara
論文名稱: 人類決策與貝葉斯預測工具的比較-從分析機器學習應用中錯誤分類的實例到工作分析
HUMAN DECISION VS BAYESIAN BASED TOOL PREDICTION – AN ANALYSIS OF MISCLASSIFIED CASES IN A MACHINE LEARNING APPLICATION TO TASK ANALYSIS
指導教授: 林樹強
Shu-Chiang Lin
口試委員: 許總欣
Tsung-Shin Hsu
楊朝龍
Chao-Lung Yang
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 工業管理系
Department of Industrial Management
論文出版年: 2012
畢業學年度: 100
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 73
中文關鍵詞: task analysisBayesian modelhuman decisiontool’s predictionmachine learningmisclassifiedfalse alarmmisscall center agent.
外文關鍵詞: task analysis, Bayesian model, human decision, tool’s prediction, machine learning, misclassified, false alarm, miss, call center agent
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A new task analysis methodology that combines a statistical approach had been adapted to develop a semi-automated task analysis tool based on machine learning application to help call canter agent during remote troubleshooting process (Lin and Lehto, 2009). Three Bayesian models had been chosen as statistical approach for identifying subtasks, such as the classic Bayes, fuzzy Bayes, and hybrid Bayes. By examining the preliminary results of Bayesian based tool's performance, it had been proven that the Bayesian based tool is able to learn subtask categories from the agent or customer narrative telephone conversations and to predict them as well. However, there is still necessary to prove the Bayesian based tool is better applied than human expert on many occasions. One of the key issue on previous research is the misclassified cases of discrepancies between human decision and Bayesian based tool's prediction when determines the subtask categories based on conversations or narratives. This issue will be appointed in this study to be a starting point for more in depth investigation of the application of task analysis tools to the naturalistic decision making environment.
The discrepancies had pointed out the bad result of Bayesian based tool when predict the subtask categories. Based on the signal detection theory, the error can happened in "false alarm" cases and "miss" cases. By learning the preliminary results of misclassified revealed that the tool not only identifies the hard to classify dialogs, but also actually helps uncover the misclassified pre-assigned subtask categories by human experts. This information denotes the misclassified cases can be caused by human decision or tool's prediction or even both of them.
This study focuses on further analysis of misclassified cases with emphasis to discrepancies of human decision and tool's prediction, especially in "false alarm" condition and "miss" condition. Through statistical proving will be done as approach in this study with exploit the abundant data and results obtained by Lin and Lehto's research to reveals from time to time that the tool is more accurate than human experts on many occasions. Furthermore, the phases of this study are arranged as follows: data collection, data identification, data preparation, data analysis, and the advanced investigation of misclassified cases.
In these results of this study point out there are influence of discrepancies caused by some treatments in the preliminary stage of Bayesian based tool development when the measuring of tool's performance, but not significant. Due to the bad results of the Bayesian based tool is very low, so the Bayesian based tool’s prediction can be proven better than human decision to identify the subtask categories. In more deep investigation, the discrepancies between human decision and tool’s prediction have been found the misclassified by the human is greater than the tool. These findings can confirm the Bayesian based tool had been proven to be able to uncover the misclassified pre-assigned by the human expert.


A new task analysis methodology that combines a statistical approach had been adapted to develop a semi-automated task analysis tool based on machine learning application to help call canter agent during remote troubleshooting process (Lin and Lehto, 2009). Three Bayesian models had been chosen as statistical approach for identifying subtasks, such as the classic Bayes, fuzzy Bayes, and hybrid Bayes. By examining the preliminary results of Bayesian based tool's performance, it had been proven that the Bayesian based tool is able to learn subtask categories from the agent or customer narrative telephone conversations and to predict them as well. However, there is still necessary to prove the Bayesian based tool is better applied than human expert on many occasions. One of the key issue on previous research is the misclassified cases of discrepancies between human decision and Bayesian based tool's prediction when determines the subtask categories based on conversations or narratives. This issue will be appointed in this study to be a starting point for more in depth investigation of the application of task analysis tools to the naturalistic decision making environment.
The discrepancies had pointed out the bad result of Bayesian based tool when predict the subtask categories. Based on the signal detection theory, the error can happened in "false alarm" cases and "miss" cases. By learning the preliminary results of misclassified revealed that the tool not only identifies the hard to classify dialogs, but also actually helps uncover the misclassified pre-assigned subtask categories by human experts. This information denotes the misclassified cases can be caused by human decision or tool's prediction or even both of them.
This study focuses on further analysis of misclassified cases with emphasis to discrepancies of human decision and tool's prediction, especially in "false alarm" condition and "miss" condition. Through statistical proving will be done as approach in this study with exploit the abundant data and results obtained by Lin and Lehto's research to reveals from time to time that the tool is more accurate than human experts on many occasions. Furthermore, the phases of this study are arranged as follows: data collection, data identification, data preparation, data analysis, and the advanced investigation of misclassified cases.
In these results of this study point out there are influence of discrepancies caused by some treatments in the preliminary stage of Bayesian based tool development when the measuring of tool's performance, but not significant. Due to the bad results of the Bayesian based tool is very low, so the Bayesian based tool’s prediction can be proven better than human decision to identify the subtask categories. In more deep investigation, the discrepancies between human decision and tool’s prediction have been found the misclassified by the human is greater than the tool. These findings can confirm the Bayesian based tool had been proven to be able to uncover the misclassified pre-assigned by the human expert.

ABSTRACT i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ii TABLE OF CONTENTS iii LIST OF FIGURES v LIST OF TABLES vi CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Research Background 1 1.2 Research Objective 2 1.3 Research Outline 3 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 4 2.1 Definition and Main Concepts of Task Analysis 4 2.2 Techniques of Task Analysis 6 2.3 Knowledge Acquisition 9 2.4 Bayesian Model for Text Mining 12 2.5 Human Decision Makers and Automated Decision Aids 13 2.6 Signal Detection Theory 15 2.7 Related Works... 15 CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY AND HYPOTHESES 18 3.1 Methodology of Study 18 3.1.1 Phase of Study 18 3.1.2 Solution of Study 18 3.1.2.1 Signal Detection Theory 19 3.1.2.2 Statistically Analysis 20 3.1.2.3 Statistical Product and Service Solution (SPSS) Tool for Statistical Analysis 21 3.2 Statement of Hypotheses 21 CHAPTER 4 ANALYSIS AND RESULTS 25 4.1 Data Collection 25 4.2 Data Identification 26 4.3 Data Preparation 28 4.3.1 Determine Variables 28 4.3.1.1 Calculate the Number of False Alarm 28 4.3.1.2 Calculate the Number of Miss 28 4.3.1.3 Calculate False Alarm Rate 29 4.3.1.4 Calculate Miss Rate 29 4.3.1.5 Calculate the Response Bias 29 4.3.2 Description of Variables 30 4.4 Data Analysis.. 31 4.4.1 Data Input 31 4.4.2 Processing of Data Input Using SPSS 32 4.4.3 Procedure of Statistical Test Using SPSS 33 4.5 Interpretation of Results 34 4.5.1 Statistical Test Result of 1st Hypothesis 34 4.5.2 Statistical Test Result of 2nd Hypothesis 37 4.5.3 Statistical Test Result of 3rd Hypothesis 39 4.5.4 Proportion of Means Based on Subtask Categories 42 4.6 The Advanced Investigation of Misclassified Cases 45 4.6.1 The Investigation of Incorrectly between Human Decision and Tool’s Prediction 45 4.6.2 The Investigation of Misclassified Cases based on Subtask Categories 51 CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION 55 REFERENCES 56 APPENDICES 60 APPENDIX A. Decomposition of Subtask Categories on Call Center Agent 60 APPENDIX B. Partial listing of Original Data of Conversation between Agent and Customer 64 APPENDIX C. Clustered Coarse Subtask Categories 65 APPENDIX D. Sample List of Calculation Variable of Each Hypothesis 66 APPENDIX E. Partial Listing of Identification the Discrepancies between Human Decision and Tool's Prediction 69 APPENDIX F. Partial Listing of Contingency Table of Misclassified Cases based on Four Criteria 72

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