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研究生: Gabriel Setiawan Hadi
Gabriel Setiawan Hadi
論文名稱: 美國國債殖利率的協整與因果分析
Cointegration and Causality Analyses of The U.S. Treasury Yields
指導教授: 繆維中
Wei-Chung Miao
口試委員: 張琬喻
Woan-Yuh Jang
張光第
Guang-Di Chang
薛博今
Po-Chin Shiue
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2023
畢業學年度: 112
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 51
外文關鍵詞: treasury yields, cointegration, error correction model, Granger causality
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  • Financial markets are integrated with each other, and market variables such as yields of treasuries of different maturities are expected to move simultaneously. One particular concept for analyzing this kind of relationship is the cointegration and error correction, when there is a long-term equilibrium relationship underlying the movements of market variables. Furthermore, the idea that cointegrated time series also exhibit Granger causality
    is also explored here. Therefore, this research aims to analyze the yields of different maturities using the cointegration and Granger causality approach. The U.S. treasury yields of various maturities from 2009 to 2022 are used for the data. Different combinations of
    yields in daily, weekly, and monthly frequencies are analyzed to derive a more stable conclusion of cointegration and Granger causality. The result shows that treasuries yields are cointegrated and Granger causing each other, particularly on the short end of the term structure.

    ACKNOWLEDGMENT ii ABSTRACT iii TABLE OF CONTENTS iv LIST OF FIGURES v LIST OF TABLES vi CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Research Background 1 1.2 Research Objectives 3 1.3 Research Scope and Limitations 3 1.4 Organizations of the Thesis 3 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 4 2.1 Theory of the Term Structure 4 2.2 Cointegration and Error Correction 6 2.3 Granger Causality 8 2.4 Related Literature 9 CHAPTER 3 DATA AND METHODOLOGY 12 3.1 Data Description 12 3.2 Research Methodology 14 3.2.1 Preliminary Analyses 14 3.2.2 Cointegration and Error Correction 14 3.2.3 Granger Causality 17 CHAPTER 4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 18 4.1 Preliminary Analysis 18 4.2 Cointegration Tests 21 4.3 VECM Estimation 23 4.4 Granger Causality Analysis 31 4.5 Discussions 32 CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION 35 5.1 Concluding Remarks 35 5.2 Future Works 36 APPENDIX 38 REFERENCES 52

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