研究生: |
陳雪貞 Hsueh-Chen Chen |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
探討中美貿易戰與新冠疫情對市場運價波動性之影響因素-以跨太平洋東向定期船運為例 Study The Influence Factors of The US-China Trade War and Covid-19 pandemic to the market freight rate fluctuations - Take Trans-Pacific Eastbound Route as a Case |
指導教授: |
葉穎蓉
Ying-Jung Yeh |
口試委員: |
欒斌
Pin Luarn 陳正綱 Cheng-Kang Chen |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 企業管理系 Department of Business Administration |
論文出版年: | 2021 |
畢業學年度: | 109 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 43 |
中文關鍵詞: | 中美貿易戰 、航運運輸 、新冠疫情 、上海出口集裝箱運價指數 |
外文關鍵詞: | China-US trade war, shipping and transportation, COVID-19, Shanghai Containerized Freight Index |
相關次數: | 點閱:178 下載:0 |
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2018中美貿易戰導致中美經濟受到影響,2020年初又因新型冠狀病毒(COVID-19)爆發,導致整個海運運價起伏猶如驚濤駭浪的變化。本研究以2018年至2021年前後的運費進行研究,研究發現2020下半年之後運價飆漲,主要受到3個主要因素:1.運價受到疫情影響,開始增加刺激對基本生活物資及醫療用品需求增加,導致運輸量大與塞港問題等等因素產生,迫使運價提高;2.中美貿易戰開打時,為了免除波段性的高額附加關稅,反而造成2020年7-9月對美貿易順差為974億美元頻創新高。3.因疫情延續關係,美國為救經濟,因此美國國會釋出紓困案,又間接刺激需求增加,迫使中美航線運價飆高,且創新高。2020下半年之後運價飆漲,因受到這些不可抗拒之外因素所干擾,因此無法用一般傳統管理預測運價,僅能運用實際市場環境評估運價趨勢。
The 2018 China-US trade war had affected the China-US economy, and the outbreak of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) in early 2020 had caused the entire ocean freight rate to fluctuate like a stormy wave. Data analysis used freight rates around 2018 to 2021 to explore possible reasons. After the second half of 2020, the freight rate had soared, mainly due to three main factors:
It is mainly affected by three main factors: 1. The freight rate had been affected by the epidemic, and it had increased to stimulate the increase in the demand for basic living materials and medical supplies. Such as large transportation volume and the port clogging problem, which forced the increase was in freight rates. 2. When the China-US trade war started, in order to avoid high band tariffs, the trade surplus with the U.S. from July to September 2020 was set at a record high of 97.4 billion U.S. dollars. 3. Due to the continuation of the epidemic and the United States to save the economy, the US Congress released the bailout case, which indirectly stimulated the increase in demand. Forcing the freight rates of China-US routes was to soar and hit new highs. After the second half of 2020, freight rates had soared. Due to the interference of these irresistible factors, it was impossible to predict freight rates with general traditional management, and can only use the actual market environment to assess freight rate trends.
中文部分
1. 張弘遠(2020),「新冠肺炎」疫情對兩岸及全球經濟影響及我因應之道,亞太和平研究基金會,109001,pp. 1-48。
2. 謝順峰、葉國俊(2019),美中貿易衝突對臺灣經貿與金融之可能影響與因應,財稅研究,48(1),pp. 110-144。
3. 徐劍華(2018)。中美貿易戰陰影籠罩下的東方海外長灘碼頭命運預測。航貿週刊,(201817),pp. 61-65。
4. 張晉授(2000)。貨櫃場作業費(THC)對於海運運費之影響─遠歐航線定期船市場運費的實證檢測。國立海洋大學航運管理學系,未出版碩士論文,基隆市。
5. 郭哲榮(2015)。散裝航運市場指數模型之建立及預測---以台灣,中國及 BDI 指數為例。中央大學土木工程學系,未出版碩士論文,桃園市。
6. 溫珮伶、林晉勗、林師模(2008)國際原物料價格與散裝海運運價指數之連動及其對運價指數預測之影響。運輸學刊,20(4), 351-375。
7. 薛凌亞(2007)石油價格變動對海運運費的影響。淡江大學國際貿易學系國際企業所,未出版碩士論文,新北市。
8. 楊怡瑩(2014)廠商的營運策略對航運運費的影響,臺灣大學經濟學研究所,未出版碩士論文,臺北市。
英文部分
1. Grossman, W. L. (1956). Ocean Freight Rates. Cornell Maritime Press.
2. Kavussanos, M. G., & Visvikis, I. D. (2006). Shipping freight derivatives: a survey of recent evidence. Maritime Policy & Management, 33(3), 233-255.
網路資料
1. 中美貿易戰持續近兩年,什麼改變了?
(https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world-51099039)
2. 「金融海嘯」的4倍! 美前財長:疫情造成美國經濟損失慘重。
(https://newtalk.tw/news/view/2020-10-13/478522)
3. 航運主要九大國佔世界船隊量72.2%。
https://marinefans.org/modules/tad_discuss/discuss.php?DiscussID=14686&BoardID=4
4. 055大驅造多少都不多:中國成世界海事第一大國,美日分列二三名。
https://kknews.cc/news/n3nergq.html
5. 世界經濟格局將因疫情影響加速轉型。
https://www.trademag.org.tw/page/newsid1/?id=768335&iz=1