連鎖加盟零售業為一種總公司與加盟者共同承擔企業聲譽及銷售同類商品之商業模式。不管是以總公司或者是加盟者的角度來說，皆致力於精確的訂購量以降低成本及提高銷售。尤其銷售商品為短時效性商品，例如：生鮮食品、麵包等等，訂購量的決策更是重要。然而，需求不穩定性及外在因素等造成每日訂購量與銷售量之間多少具有誤差。因此，本研究期望發展出一套運用銷售預測模型結合地域性調貨機制之概念，提供訂購建議及調貨決策給管理者。有別於一般致力於改善銷售預測模型之研究，本研究利用連鎖加盟企業之互助特性，以調貨的方式互相彌平每日訂購量與銷售量之誤差。透過以連鎖加盟麵包業所提供之銷售點(Point of Sale)實際銷售數據及外在因素(天氣狀況、氣溫、假日)作為預測模型之訓練資料(Training set)及測試資料(Testing set)。藉由預測之結果做為啟動調貨機制之依據，並以地緣關係分群之店家間調貨為優先考量建立調貨決策模型。以真實資料進行驗證，結果顯示，若加盟店之管理者以經驗法則做為每日訂購量之依據，仍能透過銷售預測模型及調貨機制的啟動彌平每日訂購量與銷售量之差距。透過此概念的應用，總公司可提出鼓勵加盟者訂購之建議、加盟者能夠減少存貨成本及提高銷售及滿足消費者等三贏局面。

Franchisee chain system is a business model of the franchise organization share the reputation and sell the same kind of goods with franchisee. The purpose for whomever is focus on accurate order to reduce the cost and increase the sales. Espe-cially for perishable good, such as fresh food and bread, the policy of order quantity is more important than non-perishable good. However, there are always have a different between order quantity and sales quantity caused by unstable demand and external factor for every day. Therefore, this research look forward to develop a concept of combined sales forecasting and regional transshipment for providing the suggestions and transfer policy to the managers. This research used the property of mutual support in franchisee chain system to transship the goods to reduce the order error differently from the research which focused on improving the sales forecasting. The data were distributed into training set and testing set for forecasting model through the real data (Point of Sale) and external factors (weather, temperature, holiday) were provided by franchisee chain system. By the result of sales forecasting as the basis for starting the mechanism of transshipment, and geographical relationship between the franchisees is a top priority to transship the goods. The result showed that the average order error is able to be reduced through the mechanism of combined the sales forecasting and re-gional transshipment. Through the application of this concept, the franchisee chain system is able to create the multi-wins situation, for instance, the suggestions of or-dering goods are proposed to the franchisee by the franchise organization, inventory cost-reducing and sales-increasing and meet the demand of customer.

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