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研究生: Artur Zadykhanov
Artur Zadykhanov
論文名稱: Monte Carlo Simulation Method as Innovative Approach for Sales Forecast
Monte Carlo Simulation Method as Innovative Approach for Sales Forecast
指導教授: 吳清炎
Ching-Yan Wu
周瑞生
Jui-Sheng Chou
口試委員: 周瑞生
Jui-Sheng Chou
張朝清
Chao-Ching Chang
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 管理學院MBA
School of Management International (MBA)
論文出版年: 2019
畢業學年度: 107
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 76
中文關鍵詞: Sales forecastInnovative techniqueMonte Carlo simulationCurrent studies reviewForecast improvementLimitations of use
外文關鍵詞: Sales forecast, Innovative technique, Monte Carlo simulation, Current studies review, Forecast improvement, Limitations of use
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  • This paper reviews and analyses the current studies on the existing sales forecasting techniques, and extends them to the search for new innovative methods of prediction. Sales forecast is traditionally considered to be one of the most important parts of any businesses’ operations, as the accurate predictions reveals the various risks and provides valuable possibilities to make adequate decisions for a range of the corporate issues. Proposed by the author, the method of Monte Carlo simulation is successfully adopted to various scientific fields and industries to solve a wide range of the tasks. Due to this fact, the paper presents this technique as a new potential method for conduction of sales forecasts. Comparison with the other forecasting methods demonstrates some feasible advantages of using Monte Carlo. In addition, the paper provides some comments on appropriability and limitations of use of the new technique.


    This paper reviews and analyses the current studies on the existing sales forecasting techniques, and extends them to the search for new innovative methods of prediction. Sales forecast is traditionally considered to be one of the most important parts of any businesses’ operations, as the accurate predictions reveals the various risks and provides valuable possibilities to make adequate decisions for a range of the corporate issues. Proposed by the author, the method of Monte Carlo simulation is successfully adopted to various scientific fields and industries to solve a wide range of the tasks. Due to this fact, the paper presents this technique as a new potential method for conduction of sales forecasts. Comparison with the other forecasting methods demonstrates some feasible advantages of using Monte Carlo. In addition, the paper provides some comments on appropriability and limitations of use of the new technique.

    ABSTRACT II ACKNOWLEDGEMENT III TABLE OF CONTENTS IV LIST OF TABLES VI LIST OF FIGURES VII CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND 1 1.1. Purpose of Study 1 1.2. Research Objectives and Questions 3 1.3. Research Structure 5 CHAPTER 2: THEORETICAL BACKGROUND 8 2.1. Definition of Sales Forecast and Current Literature Review 8 2.1.1. Judgmental Approaches 11 2.1.2. Statistical methods 15 2.2. General Principles 19 2.3. Importance of Sales Forecast 21 2.4. Summary 25 CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY 31 3.1. Data Collection 31 3.2. Time-Series Linear Regression 34 3.3. Monte Carlo Simulation 37 CHAPTER 4: COMPARISON OF DIFFERENT TECHNIQUES FOR SALES FORECASTING 40 4.1. Time-Series Linear Regression Forecasting Approach 40 4.2. Monte Carlo Simulation 44 4.3. Accuracy Results of the Comparison 48 4.4. Sensitivity Analysis 50 CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSIONS 54 5.1. Contributions 54 5.2. Major Findings 55 5.3. Limitations of Use of the Model 55 5.4. Suggestions for Using Monte Carlo Method 56 5.5. Suggestions for Future Studies 57 REFERENCES 59

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