人類藉由改善居住環境以提升生活品質, 不得不大量使用自然資源, 這本是無可厚非的。但是, 隨著人口的快速成長以及科技的大步躍進, 伴隨而來的水汙染、空氣汙染、土石流、土地沙漠化、臭氧層破壞、物種滅絕、全球暖化及氣候變遷等現象, 已對地球上的動物、植物以及人類文明構成巨大的威脅。其中, 由於溫室氣體排放量巨增所帶來的溫室效應(Greenhouse effect), 已造成嚴重的全球暖化(global warming)問題, 更是讓各國政府亟需採取對策以解決的頭痛問題。為了對付全球暖化這個課題,研究機構及學術單位無不傾全力進行研究, 以期能達到永續發展(sustainable development)的目的。
為了達到減少溫室氣體 (Greenhouse Gases, GHGs)排放量的目標, 有三個主要的對策: 1). 減少需求端的能源使用量; 2).提升能源使用效率; 3). 降低對會產生大量GHG的石化燃料(fossil fuels)的依賴。要減少需求端的需求, 需透過政府相關法令的宣導及政策的配合; 要提升能源使用效率, 則是產品生產廠商需透過不斷的技術創新來達成; 而要降低對會產生大量GHG的石化燃料的依賴, 則可藉由提高再生能源的使用比例來達成。
本研究的主要目的, 是希望藉由研究全球各主要汽車廠在載客車輛(passenger vehicles)的技術創新及進程,來評估這個區塊未來對提升能源使用效率以降低GHG的可能貢獻; 以及藉由研究再生能源電力(renewable electricity)供應鏈的現狀及發展瓶頸, 提出未來的改善方向,以協助政府單位及產業界提高對大量使用再生能源的意願。
在載客車輛的技術創新方面, 我們針對兩種不同的發展策略:提高引擎性能及使用非石化燃料提出優劣分析及比較, 同時針對它們的性能提升進行評估, 以證實這些技術創新對於減少GHG排放確實可行; 接著, 我們評估各國在推動載客車輛的GHG排放標準的差異及時程, 最後預估在2020年、2030年及2040年,藉由這些車輛的普及, 可能帶來的GHG減少的比例。
在再生能源電力方面, 我們分析了各種再生能源技術的差異、成本、供應鏈的現狀及瓶頸, 同時提出改善建議。接著, 我們根據未來全球電力需求及各種再生能源電力的成長, 預估在2020年、2030年及2040年, 藉由再生能源電力的大量使用, 可能帶來的GHG減少的比例。
本研究所推估出的節能減碳車輛以及再生能源電力所可能帶來的全球GHG排放量的減少比例(與2014年相比), 分別為2020年共可減少1.43%、2030年共可減少2.2%、2040年可減少3.09%。但如果還原載客車輛的成長率(每年5%以上)及電力的裝載容量的增加(每年3%以上), 則節能減碳車輛的普及和再生能源電力的使用, 可減少GHG排放量分別為8.43%(2020年)、24.4%(2030年)及46.59%(2040年)。從以上這些數值可以讓各國政府、研究機構及生產廠商有所啟發, 願意投入更大的資源和心力在支持及開發更廣泛的節能減碳技術(不限於載客車輛)以及快速提升再生能源電力的容量。

Unsurprisingly, the world’s present development path is not sustainable. The impact of global warming and climate change on animal, plant and human civilization has become one of the most critical issues in the 21st century. The technological developments have advanced human civilization in the past two centuries. However, human civilization and technological developments have disastrous consequences for the future generations. The increase in disasters caused by typhoons, floods, landslides, earthquakes, and tsunamis reflect that humans are not in control of their destiny. The global warming issue is mainly caused by the increased emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the space. Reducing the GHG emissions has become an urgent and headache problem facing governments, research institutions, and industries worldwide.
The sustainable development typically involves three major strategies: 1). energy savings on the demand side; 2). efficiency improvement in the energy consumption; and 3). replacement of high-GHG-emission fossil fuels by other low-GHG-emission alternative fuels (such as renewable energies). In this study, we applied two of the three sustainable development strategies, namely, efficiency improvement strategy and replacement strategy on two empirical studies to estimate the effect of reducing GHG emissions for achieving environmental sustainability.
One of the main purposes of this study is to understand the state-of-the-art technical innovations of the passenger vehicles sector and to assess the energy efficiency in this regard in order to reduce global GHG emissions. The other purpose of this study is to assess the current development, performance, and barriers facing the renewable electricity supply chain, and to propose suggestions for future improvements.
In the study of technical innovations of the passenger vehicles, we conducted a comparative analysis on two different development strategies: to improve the performance of conventional engines and to use alternative fuels. We then estimate the preferable reduction of global GHG emissions contributed by the population of fuel-efficient / low-carbon emission vehicles in 2020, 2030 and 2040.
In the study of renewable electricity, we analyzed the differences between the various renewable energy technologies. We then estimate the preferable reduction of global GHG emissions contributed by the increased capacity of renewable electricity in 2020, 2030 and 2040.
The study results in the estimation of reduction of global GHG emissions (compared with 2014 ) is 1.43% in 2020, 2.2% in 2030, and 3.09% in 2040, respectively. But if we added back the annual sales growth of passenger vehicles (more than 5%) and annual demand growth of electricity (more than 3%), the estimated contribution from the pervasive passenger vehicles and increased share of renewable electricity on the reduction of global GHG emissions will be 8.43% (2020), 24.4% (2030), and 46.59% (2040), respectively. we believe that these values will allow governments, research institutions and manufacturers to consider investing more resources and efforts in support of the development of a wider range of carbon reduction technologies and the increase of renewable electricity capacity.

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