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研究生: 傅雅珊
Ya-Shan Fu
論文名稱: 不同交易群組下散戶交易人績效持續性探討-以臺灣期貨契約為例
Persistence of different transaction groups of Individual investors' Performance:Evidence from Taiwan Futures Contracts
指導教授: 陳俊男
Chun-Nan Chen
口試委員: 張琬喻
Wan-Yu Chang
林軒竹
Hsuan-Chu Lin
李竹芬
Chu-Fen Li
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2015
畢業學年度: 103
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 98
中文關鍵詞: 臺灣期貨交易市場績效持續性
外文關鍵詞: Taiwan futures markets, Performance Persistence
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  • 本研究主要探討臺灣期貨市場中不同交易群組下散戶交易人績效持續性,檢定是否會因交易次數不同而導致有較顯著性之績效持續性存在,研究期間自2006年3月27日至2008年7月31日,包含國內散戶交易之詳細日內交易資料,散戶將先計算持有部位月數及天數,以至少持有部位兩年(一年為252交易天數,兩年為504天)為選取標準,再以交易次數將剩餘之散戶分層抽樣,並分為三類群組:高頻、中頻及低頻交易群組。於計算報酬績效時,將採取三種結算方式:每日結算法(淨損益、成交損益及部位損益)、先進先出法及後進先出法。
    檢測績效持續性之檢定方法採用過去文獻探討基金績效持續性所提及之簡單自我迴歸、Cross Product Ratio、Chi-Square及Spearman Rank Correlation等四種方法,分別檢測於不同結算方式計算下之高、中、低頻散戶績效持續性結果,研究其績效是否具有持續性現象,亦能觀察交易次數與持續性間之相關性。


    The purpose of this study is to examine the transaction data of individual investors in Taiwan’s futures markets from March 27, 2006 to July 31, 2008, to explore under the different groups how the performance persistence is. At first, we will calculate the period that each individual investor holds the position. Then delete the holding period under two years, and group the remainders for three groups: high、middle and low frequency. Using three different types to calculate the performance, including: market to market, first in first out and last in last out.
    To test the performance persistence, we use the previous studies’ methods-Regression, Cross Product Ratio、Chi-Square and Spearman Rank Correlation, observing that each group of individual investors’ performance persistence under the different types to calculate the performance, and also observe the correlation between the times of transactions and performance persistence.

    摘 要 ABSTRACT 致 謝 目錄 圖表目錄 第壹章 緒論 第一節 研究動機與背景 第二節 研究目的 第三節 研究範圍及限制 第四節 章節架構 第貳章 文獻探討 第一節 效率市場假說 第二節 過度自信 第三節 共同基金績效持續性 第四節 避險基金績效持續性 第參章 研究方法 第一節 研究資料與期間範圍 第二節 研究假說 第三節 變數之定義 第四節 檢定之方法 第肆章 實證結果分析 第一節 三大群組簡單迴歸分析 第二節 各類群組個別散戶簡單迴歸分析 第三節 Cross-Product-Ratio 檢定 第四節 穩健性分析 第五節 不同結算報酬之方法績效持續性比較 第六節 探討績效持續性來源 第伍章 結論與建議 第一節 研究結論 第二節 研究貢獻 第三節 研究建議 參考文獻 一、中文部分 二、英文部分 附錄A 簡單自我迴歸分析 附錄B CPR檢定結果 附錄C Chi檢定結果 附錄D Spearman Rank Correlation檢定結果 附錄E 每次交易報酬之簡單自我迴歸分析

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