需求規劃能幫助減少存貨並帶來利益，然而需求規劃最大問題為不確定性，目前台灣為LCD面板的製造大國，對於今天如TFT-LCD這般的高科技產業，市場需求不確定性大、產品生命週期短的特性，準確的需求預測顯得格外重要。所以我們希望可以透過預測方法來幫助進行需求規劃時的決策。我們可以在供應鏈中收集到許多有用的資訊，而結合預測可以透過組合不同的預測方法來充分運用這些資訊於需求規劃上。許多的專家也指出，結合預測的效果比任何單一的預測方法要來的好。在本研究中，我們透過結合全球需求量乘上市場佔有率的預測以及公司出貨預測，藉由組合預測來達到對面板產業進行需求規劃時的穩定性及精確度。在結合預測的參數估計上，我們透過基因演算法的利用，和其他傳統的方法如調適權重法或是線性組合法做比較，期望可以找出最適合的權重來進行結合預測。

The attributes of the high-tech industries are high degree of uncertainty and short product life cycle. TFT-LCD industry is growing in Taiwan. LCD-monitor is a major component for a desktop computer. Demand planning can effectively reduce inventories and bring benefits. The difficulty of demand planning is uncertainty. We can use forecasting methods to improve the accuracy of demand planning. For example, we can use combining forecasts method which is associated with different forecasting methods. Many experts point out that combining forecast is more useful than any single forecasting method. There are many different ways to estimate the parameters of combining forecasts. In this study, we use genetic algorithm (GA) to find combining weights and compare with other traditional methods such as k method, adaptive set of weights and linear composite. The results show that GA approach out performs other method. We combine the global demand forecasts which is multiply by market share and the supply forecasts of company. Using combining forecasts, we can increase the stability and accuracy of the demand planning.

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