營造施工是一個具備開放性、獨特性及複雜性的高危險性作業環境，一旦發生重大災害往往造成事業單位嚴重的損失，蒐集事後的重大職災報告加以統計分析及進行事前的災害風險量化分析是鑑往知來管控災害風險的必要手段。因此本研究分為二大部分，第一部分先蒐集2000-2008年共1437筆重大職災報告加以編碼及資訊化，並運用資訊技術建置成職災分析資訊平台，以了解過去重大職災的特性及分布，作為後續風險評估前的參考。第二部份，本研究運用災害因果理論，並結合影響圖及模糊理論，提出一可藉由專家判斷進行的營造災害風險量化方法，可使事業單位易於進行災害風險量化的估算、安全因子的影響評估及安全投資決策的效益分析，並舉例說明本方法的應用，及如何運用模組化電腦程式進行災害風險分析。

Construction work is hazardous work because the construction site is an open, unique and complex system. The losses caused by major construction accidents may bring serious financial impacts to construction enterprises. Accident analysis (post-accident) and quantitative risk analysis (pre-accident) is essential to accident risk management and safety economic evaluation. The first part of this paper is to collect major accident reports from 2000 to 2008 (1437 cases) for data coding and digitalization. By adopting information technology to develop an accident analysis information platform, this research can achieve the analysis of historical major accidents. The second part of this paper is to develop a novel risk quantification methodology. Based on expert judgment, this paper applies accident-causation theory, influence diagrams and fuzzy theory to develop a quantitative method for accident risk analysis. The present method may assist enterprises to analyze the quantitative risk of construction accidents, the influence of safety factors and the cost-benefit of safety investment decisions. As an illustrative example, the quantitative risk analysis of a major accident that may happen when construction is shown by the application of a modularized computing language.

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