本研究以大臺北地區(係指臺北市及新北市地區，以下皆同)為研究區域，模擬山腳斷層
作為假設地震之觸發斷層帶，假定地震震央位於鄰近臺北市之上部地區，發生芮氏規模6.8
地震，使用蒙地卡羅模擬法Monte Carlo simulation隨機模擬100組地震事件參數(臺北市及新北
市)，帶入簡易地震災損推估系統Simple Earthquake Seismic System(以下簡稱SESS)和台灣地震
損失評估系統Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System(以下簡稱TELES)，演算出震後火災的
風險評估uncertainty analysis，進行地震後火災之模擬，並針對臺北市及新北市的消防分隊數
進行防災整備力之探討，分析地震後火災搶救的不確定性，評估整體大臺北區域之消防應變
能力。
由SESS 分析結果可見，原來風險機率臺北市25.51%新北市73.19%，經區域聯防臺北市
可達到56.18%新北市為100%，而TELES 的原來風險為臺北市53.51%新北市92.2%，經區域
聯防後均可達到100%救災能力需求。臺北市雖SESS 經區域聯防後，距60%風險門檻仍有部
分差距，但已提升救災能力。再藉由TELES 分析結果顯示，區域聯防可顯著提升救災能力，
並接近達到救災資源調度需求，因地震天災發生地點規模形態，及所造成的災害傷亡有不確
定性，但本研究借由兩種獨力開發的地震災害損失系統，驗證後能有效提供震後火災搶救調
度評估之參考。

The research focused on great Taipei area and simulated San-chiao fault triggered an
earthquake, assumed the center was located at the upper area near Taipei City, earthquake
measuring 6.8 on the Richter scale, simulated 100 sets of earthquake events ( Taipei City and New
Taipei City) with Monte Carlo Simulation, demonstrated in Simple earthquake seismic system
(SESS) and Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System (TELES), calculated post- earthquake fire
risk evaluation, conducted post-earthquake fire simulation, examined disaster rescue capability from
fire station numbers in both Taipei city and New Taipei City, performed post-earthquake fire
uncertainty analysis, and assessed fire rescue capability in great Taipei area.
The SESS analysis results indicated that the original risk probability was Taipei City 25.51%
and New Taipei City 73.19%, and increased to 56.18% and 100% with the activation of a regional
mutual aid system. The original risk calculated by the TELES was Taipei City 53.51% and New
Taipei City 92.2%, and both increased to 100% of the overall fire rescue capability requirements
after the regional mutual aid system was launched. Although the SESS results indicated that Taipei
City remained below the 60% risk threshold following the launch of the regional mutual aid system,
the rescue capability was substantially increased. The TELES analysis results indicated that the
regional mutual aid system can increase local fire rescue capability and nearly satisfy all disaster
resource deployment requirements. Although the location, scale, type of earthquakes and the
resulting casualties are always uncertain, the results of this study was verified by 2 independently
developed earthquake damage estimation systems and can provide an effective reference for
post-earthquake fire rescue deployment assessments.

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