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研究生: 羅佳玲
Karina - Agustin
論文名稱: 老年化社會對健保費用變化影響之研究:以台灣為案例
Impact of Aging Society to Healthcare Expenditure of National Health Insurance in Taiwan
指導教授: 周碩彥
Shuo-Yan Chou
郭伯勳
Po-Hsun Kuo
口試委員: 喻奉天
Vincent F. Yu
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 工業管理系
Department of Industrial Management
論文出版年: 2016
畢業學年度: 104
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 68
中文關鍵詞: Population shiftingNHI expenditure increasingage-expenditure profile approachcomponent decomposing methodlinear regression
外文關鍵詞: Population shifting, NHI expenditure increasing, age-expenditure profile approach, component decomposing method, linear regression
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  • Taiwan’s government is facing new pressures for public healthcare as result of a rapidly increasing healthcare costs and financial imbalances in its National Health Insurance program. Accordingly, analyzing the factors properly is a significant first step in addressing this problem. Graying population in Taiwan is hypothesized as the main reason that accounts for a huge health care expenditure. The sample of population in Taiwan’s National Health Insurance databases together with statistic methods is used to analyze the impact of population aging and to estimate the contributions of population aging shifting to NHI expenditure in Taiwan.


    Taiwan’s government is facing new pressures for public healthcare as result of a rapidly increasing healthcare costs and financial imbalances in its National Health Insurance program. Accordingly, analyzing the factors properly is a significant first step in addressing this problem. Graying population in Taiwan is hypothesized as the main reason that accounts for a huge health care expenditure. The sample of population in Taiwan’s National Health Insurance databases together with statistic methods is used to analyze the impact of population aging and to estimate the contributions of population aging shifting to NHI expenditure in Taiwan.

    ABSTRACT i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ii TABLE OF CONTENTS iii LIST OF TABLES v LIST OF FIGURES vi CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Objectives 2 1.3 Organization of Thesis 3 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 4 2.1 Forecasting 4 2.2 Age-Expenditure Projecting Approach 5 2.3 The fluctuation of the Money Value 6 2.4 Data Mining 6 2.4.1 Linear Regression 6 2.4.2 Regression Validation 7 2.5 The Decomposing of Health Care Expenditure Components Approach 8 CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY RESEARCH 12 3.1 Data Sources 12 3.2 Study Cohort 12 3.3 Research Methodology 13 3.4 Age-Expenditure Projecting Approach 15 3.5 Identifying and Decomposing the Components of Health Care Expenditure 15 3.6 Analysis using Data Mining 17 3.6.1 Building Linear Regression Model for Cost Prediction 17 3.6.2 Forecasting the Independent Variable 18 3.6.3 Predicting NHI’s Expenditure 18 3.6.4 Validating the Model 18 CHAPTER 4: ANALYSIS AND RESULTS 19 4.1 Age Distribution of the Patient Cohort 19 4.2 Graph Result Analysis to Provide Hypothesis 20 4.3 Result of Age-Expenditure Profile Analysis 23 4.4 Result of Components Decomposition Method in NHI’s Expenditure 24 4.5 Result of Cost Prediction Model with Linier Regression 25 CHAPTER 5: DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION 29 5.1 Discussion and Conclusion 29 5.2 Limitation and Future Research 30 REFERENCES 31 APPENDIX 36

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