土地是建設業投資開發之基本原料，土地開發過程需要投入相當大量的資金，因此在土地開發的過程中，建設商會小心謹慎地評估土地開發狀況，避免投資失誤造成重大虧損。然而，土地開發決策行為具備不可回復性及可延遲性等特色，且市場未來狀況通常呈現高度不確定性(Uncertainty)，因此土地開發決策包含選擇權價值。傳統現金流量折現法(Discounted Cash Flow；簡稱DCF)卻存在著無法考量管理彈性的缺失，是不易給予適切的表達出投投資計畫之價值。本研究有鑑於此，乃應用實質選擇權(Real Option)之觀念，建立土地開發投資計劃之評估模式。實質選擇權之概念已廣泛應用在土地開發的決策準則上，其研究多以B-S模型(Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model；簡稱B-S)推導說明未來房價或租金水準不確定性對空地價值及土地最適開發時機所產生之影響，為探討土地開發投資計畫中多重實質選擇權之情況，採用對數二項式(Log-Transformed Binomial Model；簡稱LTB)為基本模型，建構土地開發多重選擇權評價模型，並依據特性以延遲、緊縮、放棄及擴張等四種選擇權類型，以評估土地開發投資決策過程中多重投資決策行為，從分析結果可以發現在土地開發決策過程確實存在著不確定性與多重選擇權現象，且會影響土地開發最後所產生之預估報酬。

Land is a basic element for the construction industry, and huge capitals are usually required in the investment of construction projects. Therefore, in the land development process, construction firms will carefully evaluate land development conditions so as to avoid serious losses caused by investment failure. However, land development decisions are characterized by irreversibility and deferability, and the future market conditions are usually highly uncertain, so option value had considered in land development decisions. The traditional discounted cash flow is not considered “management flexibility”. Value As a result, based on the concept of real option, this study attempted to establish an evaluation model for land development investment projects. The concept of real options has been extensively applied in the research of criteria of land development decisions. The B-S model is usually employed to investigate the impact of uncertainties of future real estate price and rent level on vacant land value and optimal development timing. Focusing on multiple real options, this study adopted Log-Transformed Binomial (LTB) to construct a multiple option evaluation model based on the four options, including option to defer, option to contract, option to abandon, and option to expand. The results showed that in the land development decision making process, is having uncertain and multiple options valus, thus, it will be influenced the estimation return.

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