由於美國的過度消費及投資，以及亞洲經濟體與石油輸出國巨額且持續成長堆積的外匯準備導致全球總體經濟失衡，其中以中國大陸為首的亞洲經濟體更被先進國家冠以「重商主義者」(mercantilist)的名號，藉由低估的匯率，促使出口的暢旺，並以超額外匯準備滿足預防或保險動機。台灣身為亞洲經濟體的一員，無法置身於事外，因此探討台灣外匯準備適足性，乃當前重要課題，尤其台灣全球外匯準備排名節節敗退之際，更引發各界質疑其外匯準備是否足夠，然而經本研究發現：
1.台灣外匯準備的全球排名雖然由第二名滑落至第五名，但經與各主要國家比較，並運用 各種理論或模型估算結果，台灣近五年來之外匯準備超額情況，較2002年之前更為明顯。
2.學理上的最適外匯準備必須邊際收益等於邊際成本，但現實情況告訴我們，最佳的外匯準備並不在於此，而必須另外考量在何種可容忍的成本下，可以真正保護國內經濟，避免受到金融危機的衝擊，就如同買保險一樣。本研究以台灣的數據進行分析，在不考慮沖銷成本的情況下，發現台灣持有超額外匯準備的潛在損失相當低(約GDP之1%)，然而卻真正避開亞洲金融風暴的衝擊，如果維持理論上的最適外匯準備，恐無法倖免於危機。
3.迄今尚無舉世通用的最適外匯準備或適當規模外匯準備，除了個別國家非經濟因素無法量化以外，應付金融危機的衝擊，到底要準備多少外匯準備?事實證明，1997年亞洲金融危機時，台灣外匯準備占GDP之28%(適足規模為GDP之10%)，在超額外匯準備加上貨幣當局應對得宜，以及國內經濟基本面尚佳，才能發揮保護國內經濟避免受到重大衝擊的危機。以台灣目前持有之外匯準備而言，理論上已過多，但因潛在損失(或成本)不高，似無減少之必要，但若美元持續貶值則另當別論。
4.當台灣以美元作為國際收支之儲備地位無法改變時，面對2008年以來新台幣兌美元已升值6%以上的金融局勢，央行除了降低持有美元資產之比率外(約降至50%左右)，似有必要提撥部分外匯準備成立主權財富基金以提高外匯準備收益率，藉以抵銷持有美元資產所增加之匯兌損失。本研究發現台灣約有1,629.86 至1,936.50億美元的超額外匯準備，足夠成立主權基金，但在考量非經濟因素的預防動機之後，台灣短期內尚非成立主權財富基金之時機，央行須加強外匯操作之彈性及風險控管，以減少匯損，並抵禦全球通貨膨脹的衝擊。

Due to the excessive consumption and investment in USA, as well as the Asian economies and petroleum output countries holding large and growing stock-pile of foreign exchange reserves, it resulted in the global macroeconomic imbalances. Among them, the mainland China as the head Asian economy, crowned a name as "the mercantilist" by the advanced countries, has been keeping her currency undervalued in order to sustain her export prosperity, and holding excessive amount of foreign exchange reserves to satisfy her precautionary or insurance motives. Taiwan, as a member of Asian economies, is unable to place herself outside the matter. Therefore discussing the adequacy of Taiwan foreign exchange reserves becomes an important topic, especially when the ranking of Taiwan’s position in the world foreign exchange reserves is getting lower in recent years. After finishing this research, we have several important conclusions:
1.Although the global ranking of Taiwan’s foreign exchange reserves has fallen from the second to the fifth, however, after compared to other main countries, based on related theories or model estimations, we found that in the last five years, the excess of Taiwan’s foreign exchange reserves is more serious than that before 2002.
2.The academic optimum of foreign exchange reserves should be at the level where the marginal revenue is equal to the marginal cost, however, the practical optimal level is hardly meet the realistic situation. It must take the consideration under what cost it can be tolerated, in order to truly protect the domestic economy and avoid the impact of financial crisis. It is resembled buying insurance on the economy. In this research, we conduct an analysis by collecting Taiwan's macroeconomic data, and discover that although Taiwan holds a large amount of foreign exchange reserves, the potential loss is quite low (approximately 1% of GDP), excluding the cost of sterilization. However, it was the large reserves that helped Taiwan eventually avoid the impact of the Asian financial storm. If Taiwan maintained the academic optimum of reserves instead, it would be possibly unable to escape form the financial crisis simply by luck.
3.As far as the literature is concerned, there is no general theory regarding optimal or adequate reserves suitable for every country in the world. Apart from the non-economic factors which can not be quantified, how much should be prepared to defense the financial crisis? In fact that in 1997, Taiwan’s reserves counted as 28% of GDP (the adequate level is 10% of GDP). The excessive reserves, as well as the appropriate policy imposed by the currency authority, plus the strong domestic economic fundamentals, help develop the protection to avoid the domestic economy being under the significant impact of the crisis. At present, although the Taiwan’s foreign exchange reserves is significantly in excessive amount, since the latent loss (or cost) is not too high, reducing the amount seems not necessary if US dollar does not continue to depreciate further.
4.As Taiwan is unable to change the status using US dollar as the international reserves, and when NT dollar has appreciated over 6% against US dollar since 2008, apart from reducing the proportion of the US dollar assets (approximately fall to 50%), the central bank may alternatively appropriate part of the reserves to establish the sovereign wealth fund (SWF) to enhance the return, so as to offset the exchange loss on US dollar. According to our study, the excessive amount of Taiwan’s reserves is approximately between 162.99 billions to 193.65 billions in US dollars. Although it is sufficient to establish the SWF based on the excess of reserves, however, concerning the non-economic factor of precautionary motive, it may not be the right time to establish Taiwan’s SWF in the short run. Instead, the central bank should strengthen the flexibility of management on reserves, and enhance the control of risk, in order to reduce the loss on foreign exchange, and resist the impact of global inflation.

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