研究生: |
尤佳偉 Chia-wei You |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
工程顧問公司國際市場專案決策模式建立 -應用多目標展望模式(MCPM) Multi Criteria Prospect Model (MCPM) to Support International Market Entry Decisions for A/E Company |
指導教授: |
鄭明淵
Min-yuan Cheng |
口試委員: |
楊亦東
I-Tung Yang 劉國偉 none |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
工程學院 - 營建工程系 Department of Civil and Construction Engineering |
論文出版年: | 2009 |
畢業學年度: | 97 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 106 |
中文關鍵詞: | 多目標展望模式 、顧問公司 、投標決策 、國際專案 |
外文關鍵詞: | Entry Decision |
相關次數: | 點閱:302 下載:9 |
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近年來台灣基礎建設日趨成熟,國內工程投資量體急劇縮減,我國營建相關企業面臨經營困難與生存的競爭;反觀國際營建市場中,較受矚目的包括有中國、印度、越南、泰國、印尼、阿拉伯聯合大公國以及沙烏地阿拉伯等國,正積極建設、大興土木,因此國內營建相關企業,為因應國內外市場的變化,避免國內營建人才逐漸式微,無不積極尋求海外市場之拓展,提升競爭力、維持業務量,特別是較具市場發展潛力之開發中國家的營建市場,然而國內工程顧問公司在評估是否進入國際營建市場時,卻面臨如何選擇國家及國際專案的難題。
有鑑於此,本研究發展一套「工程顧問公司於國際市場專案投標決策模式」,考量各專案所在國家不同,為評估國際專案所在國家的各層面穩定程度,以及該國家內的營建市場資源是否健全完善,本研究將應用Fuzzy Preference Relations(FPR),配合數值評分,評估不同國家營建市場的風險程度,依據風險程度高低,提供決策者是否進入該國家的建議,以增加決策準確率,避免因決策失當而使企業陷入困境。
現今國內工程顧問公司在進行國際性專案投標作業前的評估作業時,甚少以考量專案所帶給企業的效用及實現機率進行全面性的評估,以致於往往無法做出最符合公司效益之決策。本研究利用「多目標展望模式-MCPM」(Multi Criteria Prospect Model-MCPM),考量符合決策者偏好之效用函數(Utility Function,UF),配合機率權重函數(Probability Weighting Function,PWF),並將研究成果之效益值作為評估最佳專案之決策準則,提供工程顧問公司於國際市場專案投標決策之參考。
Recently, local A/E company confront management difficulty and subsistence competition by infrastructure become mature in Taiwan. However, there are many construction demanded in Saudi Arabia, China, Vietnam, Philippines, India, etc.al. Because of globalization market situation, construction industries suppose to find the development opportunity of bidding international market, but they have to face the problems of selecting suitable countries and projects.
This paper “Using Multi Criteria Prospect Model (MCPM) to Support International market entry decision for A/E company” focus on the risks that when A/E company entry the international market will confront with, and discriminate the factors from macro level and project level. (1) Macro level phase: Risk analysis by entry difference countries. This phase exploits the Fuzzy Preference Relations (FPR) method to find the risk preference of industry manager, and to be the first step for selecting suitable countries entry. (2) Project level phase: Selecting the projects. This phase utilizes the Multi Criteria Prospect Model (MCPM), it can find the utility value to be the reference by using manager’s Probability Weighting Function and Utility Function when company makes decision.
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