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研究生: 尤佳偉
Chia-wei You
論文名稱: 工程顧問公司國際市場專案決策模式建立 -應用多目標展望模式(MCPM)
Multi Criteria Prospect Model (MCPM) to Support International Market Entry Decisions for A/E Company
指導教授: 鄭明淵
Min-yuan Cheng
口試委員: 楊亦東
I-Tung Yang
劉國偉
none
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工程學院 - 營建工程系
Department of Civil and Construction Engineering
論文出版年: 2009
畢業學年度: 97
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 106
中文關鍵詞: 多目標展望模式顧問公司投標決策國際專案
外文關鍵詞: Entry Decision
相關次數: 點閱:302下載:9
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  • 近年來台灣基礎建設日趨成熟,國內工程投資量體急劇縮減,我國營建相關企業面臨經營困難與生存的競爭;反觀國際營建市場中,較受矚目的包括有中國、印度、越南、泰國、印尼、阿拉伯聯合大公國以及沙烏地阿拉伯等國,正積極建設、大興土木,因此國內營建相關企業,為因應國內外市場的變化,避免國內營建人才逐漸式微,無不積極尋求海外市場之拓展,提升競爭力、維持業務量,特別是較具市場發展潛力之開發中國家的營建市場,然而國內工程顧問公司在評估是否進入國際營建市場時,卻面臨如何選擇國家及國際專案的難題。
    有鑑於此,本研究發展一套「工程顧問公司於國際市場專案投標決策模式」,考量各專案所在國家不同,為評估國際專案所在國家的各層面穩定程度,以及該國家內的營建市場資源是否健全完善,本研究將應用Fuzzy Preference Relations(FPR),配合數值評分,評估不同國家營建市場的風險程度,依據風險程度高低,提供決策者是否進入該國家的建議,以增加決策準確率,避免因決策失當而使企業陷入困境。
    現今國內工程顧問公司在進行國際性專案投標作業前的評估作業時,甚少以考量專案所帶給企業的效用及實現機率進行全面性的評估,以致於往往無法做出最符合公司效益之決策。本研究利用「多目標展望模式-MCPM」(Multi Criteria Prospect Model-MCPM),考量符合決策者偏好之效用函數(Utility Function,UF),配合機率權重函數(Probability Weighting Function,PWF),並將研究成果之效益值作為評估最佳專案之決策準則,提供工程顧問公司於國際市場專案投標決策之參考。


    Recently, local A/E company confront management difficulty and subsistence competition by infrastructure become mature in Taiwan. However, there are many construction demanded in Saudi Arabia, China, Vietnam, Philippines, India, etc.al. Because of globalization market situation, construction industries suppose to find the development opportunity of bidding international market, but they have to face the problems of selecting suitable countries and projects.
    This paper “Using Multi Criteria Prospect Model (MCPM) to Support International market entry decision for A/E company” focus on the risks that when A/E company entry the international market will confront with, and discriminate the factors from macro level and project level. (1) Macro level phase: Risk analysis by entry difference countries. This phase exploits the Fuzzy Preference Relations (FPR) method to find the risk preference of industry manager, and to be the first step for selecting suitable countries entry. (2) Project level phase: Selecting the projects. This phase utilizes the Multi Criteria Prospect Model (MCPM), it can find the utility value to be the reference by using manager’s Probability Weighting Function and Utility Function when company makes decision.

    第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究動機 1 1.2 研究目的 3 1.3 研究範圍與限制 5 1.4 研究內容與流程 6 1.4.1 研究內容 6 1.4.2 研究流程 7 1.5 論文架構 10 第二章 文獻回顧 11 2.1 工程顧問公司於國際市場投標之探討 11 2.1.1 工程顧問公司之概述 11 2.1.2工程顧問公司於國際市場投標之問題探討 12 2.1.3國際市場專案投標決策模式之研究 13 2.2投標流程與決策之探討 16 2.2.1 決策分析循環 16 2.2.2 決策分析循環方法 16 2.2.3 國際專案投標流程與決策 18 2.3 效用函數理論 19 2.3.1效用函數之定義 19 2.3.2效用函數之基本假設 19 2.3.3 效用函數曲線 22 2.4修正的期望效用理論 23 2.4.1期望效用理論的演進 23 2.4.2相依排列期望效用理論(Rank Dependent Expect Utility Theory, RDEU) 25 2.4.3免參數法導出效用函數值和機率權重函數值 25 2.5 多目標展望模式(Multi Criteria Prospect Model-MCPM) 30 2.5.1模糊偏好關係(Fuzzy Preference Relations, FPR) 32 2.5.2累積展望理論(Cumulative Prospect Theory, CPT) 35 第三章 應用MCPM於工程顧問公司國際市場專案投標決策模式建立 38 3.1 工程顧問公司於國際市場投標之風險因子確立 38 3.1.1 國際市場投標決策因子探討 38 3.1.2 確立國際市場專案投標決策因子 42 3.1.3 建立風險因子分級架構 43 3.2 工程顧問公司國際專案投標決策模式之建立 45 3.2.1 國家層級:進入不同國家市場之風險評估 46 3.2.1.1 計算國家層級風險因子相對權重 46 3.2.1.2 進行風險因子評分 50 3.2.1.3 計算各風險因子重要性程度 52 3.2.1.4 整體國家層級風險值計算 53 3.2.2專案層級:國際市場專案投標決策模式 55 3.2.2.1 確立影響預期獲利達成之風險因子 55 3.2.2.2 計算專案層級風險因子相對權重 56 3.2.2.3 計算專案之預期成功機率 58 3.2.2.4 確立獲利之效用函數曲線 62 3.2.2.5 確立機率權重函數曲線 70 3.2.2.6 各國際專案效用值計算 78 3.2.2.7 確定最後投標方案 80 第四章 案例分析與決策模式驗證 81 4.1 案例基本資料 81 4.1.1 基本資料分析 81 4.1.2 國際市場專案投標方案擬定 83 4.2 國家層級:進入不同國家市場之風險評估 84 4.2.1 計算國家層級風險因子相對權重 84 4.2.2 進行國家層級風險因子評分 87 4.2.3 計算國家層級各風險因子重要性程度 89 4.2.4 整體國家層級風險值計算 91 4.3 專案層級:國際市場專案投標決策模式 92 4.3.1 計算專案層級風險因子相對權重 92 4.3.2 計算專案之預期成功機率 93 4.3.3 確立獲利之效用函數曲線 98 4.3.4 確立機率權重函數曲線 100 4.3.4 各國際專案效用值計算 102 4.3.4確定最後投標方案 103 第五章 結論與建議 104 5.1 結論 104 5.2 建議 105 參考文獻106 附錄A A-1

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