建設公司在取得土地前，會根據當時房地產景氣狀況進行不同策略之評估，以確認建築投資專案開發的效益值。然而在不同策略下之報酬，將伴隨者不同之風險，因而推案過程中存在著高度的不確定性及複雜性。為使在不同開發策略下，能夠具體量化專案效益值與風險程度，並能作為建設公司決策之依據，嚴然成為一個重要且困難的問題。有鑑於此，本文根據風險值(Value at Risk, VaR)的概念，建構直接開發專案與延遲開發專案兩種策略之投資風險評估模式，可將專案之投資風險程度量化成在建設公司要求之報酬率下，於信心水準95%時可能產生之最大投資報酬損失，並定義為建築投資風險值(Real Estate at Risk, REaR)。此外，本研究將根據建築投資風險值延伸計算風險投入比與預期損失率，以確保風險評估結果不受專案規模之影響，其分析結果亦可作為多個投資專案評比之基礎。最後，經由案例分析結果顯示，本模式確實是一個建築投資專案開發風險評估之有效工具，分析結果可作為以作為建設公司經營與決策之參考。

Before acquiring land, the construction company would evaluate different investment strategies according to the boom condition to assure real estate investment projects’ efficiency.However, because of high and complex uncertainties, every payment of each project has different risks in different strategies.Therefore, it’s hard to measure the effective value and risk of projects for construction companies. According to the concept of VaR, this study creates two risk evaluation models for two different strategies: Immediate development and deferred development. (Real Estate at Risk, REaR)。By the requested ROI(Return on Investment) of construction company, the models quantifies the projects’ risk as the most possible maximized investment loss under the confidence level of 95%, which is defined as Real Estate at Risk(REaR).In addition, this study extends REaR concept to calculate risk/investment ratio and predicted loss ratio to assure the risk evaluated result which is not affected by the projects’ scale.Finally, by the case study, this model is a useful tool to evaluate the risk of real estate investment projects for construction company.

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