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研究生: Do Hoang Linh
Do - Hoang Linh
論文名稱: Bidding Decision Making for Construction Company Using Multi Criteria Prospect Model (MCPM)
Bidding Decision Making for Construction Company Using Multi Criteria Prospect Model (MCPM)
指導教授: 鄭明淵
Min-Yuan Cheng
口試委員: 楊亦東
I-Tung Yang
劉國偉
none
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工程學院 - 營建工程系
Department of Civil and Construction Engineering
論文出版年: 2009
畢業學年度: 97
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 155
中文關鍵詞: Bidding Decision MakingBid/no bidMarkup sizeMCPMCPTFPR
外文關鍵詞: Bidding Decision Making, Bid/no bid, Markup size, MCPM, CPT, FPR
相關次數: 點閱:169下載:1
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In the construction industry, the contractors are faced with two critical decisions. The contractors have to decide to bid a project or not. If yes, the contractors must decide on the proper markup size for the lowest bidder with a reasonable profit.
The dilemma of competitive bidding is to bid low enough to win the contract but high enough to make a profit. There are many variables that affect the contractors’ decisions to bid or not to bid, and how much to bid. This study proposes a “Bidding Decision Making for Construction Company Using Multi Criteria Prospect Model” (BD-MCPM) to assist contractors to make decision to bid on a project or not and determine a bid markup furthermore. Such model can optimize the markup size with an acceptable biding price.
This study presents a competitive bidding strategy model in setting a markup for projects in construction industry. The goal of BD-MCPM is to help a company to achieve its objectives in bidding. This study carries out 18 factors (10 factors for biding and 8 factors for markup size) that finally impact on the markup size.
For making decision on bid/no bid and markup size, this study employs Multi Criteria Prospect Model (MCPM) which links Fuzzy Preference Relations (FPR) and Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) to figure out proper weights and calculating prospect values. FPR is used to determine the relative weights of influential factors and CPT to evaluate the prospect values of markup size under various bidding situations. In CPT, utility functions reflect the characteristics of the project decision makers. Decision makers can handle a newly tendered project with their requirements and preferences. Besides, BD-MCPM has been implemented in the form of prototype software system (BD-MCPM system, BD-MCPMS).
As aforementioned descriptions, this study concludes:
(1) MCPM can be applied successfully to model the bid/no bid and markup size decision.
(2) BD-MCPM can improve the quality of the decision process used in setting a markup and can help a contractor to gain a competitive edge in bidding.
(3) For practice, BD-MCPM has been validated through actual project bids collected from surveys in Vietnamese construction companies. It brings out outstanding results which are some contributions of this study.


In the construction industry, the contractors are faced with two critical decisions. The contractors have to decide to bid a project or not. If yes, the contractors must decide on the proper markup size for the lowest bidder with a reasonable profit.
The dilemma of competitive bidding is to bid low enough to win the contract but high enough to make a profit. There are many variables that affect the contractors’ decisions to bid or not to bid, and how much to bid. This study proposes a “Bidding Decision Making for Construction Company Using Multi Criteria Prospect Model” (BD-MCPM) to assist contractors to make decision to bid on a project or not and determine a bid markup furthermore. Such model can optimize the markup size with an acceptable biding price.
This study presents a competitive bidding strategy model in setting a markup for projects in construction industry. The goal of BD-MCPM is to help a company to achieve its objectives in bidding. This study carries out 18 factors (10 factors for biding and 8 factors for markup size) that finally impact on the markup size.
For making decision on bid/no bid and markup size, this study employs Multi Criteria Prospect Model (MCPM) which links Fuzzy Preference Relations (FPR) and Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) to figure out proper weights and calculating prospect values. FPR is used to determine the relative weights of influential factors and CPT to evaluate the prospect values of markup size under various bidding situations. In CPT, utility functions reflect the characteristics of the project decision makers. Decision makers can handle a newly tendered project with their requirements and preferences. Besides, BD-MCPM has been implemented in the form of prototype software system (BD-MCPM system, BD-MCPMS).
As aforementioned descriptions, this study concludes:
(1) MCPM can be applied successfully to model the bid/no bid and markup size decision.
(2) BD-MCPM can improve the quality of the decision process used in setting a markup and can help a contractor to gain a competitive edge in bidding.
(3) For practice, BD-MCPM has been validated through actual project bids collected from surveys in Vietnamese construction companies. It brings out outstanding results which are some contributions of this study.

CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 1 1.1. RESEARCH MOTIVATION 1 1.2. OBJECTIVE OF THE RESEARCH 3 1.3. SCOPE DEFINITION 4 1.4. METHODOLOGY 4 1.4.1. Problem formulation 7 1.4.2. Literature Review 7 1.4.3. Model construction 8 1.4.4. System Development 9 1.4.5. System Demonstration 9 1.4.6. Case study 10 1.4.7. Conclusions and Recommendations 10 1.5. STUDY OUTLINE 10 CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 12 2.1. BID/NO BID AND INFLUENTIAL FACTOR TO BID DECISION 12 2.2. MARKUP SIZE AND FACTORS AFFECTING MARKUP DETERMINATION 16 2.2.1. What is markup size 16 2.2.2. Factor affect markup size determination 20 2.3. MULTI CRITERIA PROSPECT MODEL 23 2.4. FUZZY PREFERENCE RELATIONS 24 2.4.1. General Introduction 24 2.4.2. Multiplicative Preference Relations (MPR) 25 2.4.3. Fuzzy Preference Relations (FPR) 26 2.5. CUMULATIVE PROSPECT THEORY (CPT) 28 2.5.1. Expected Utility Theory 28 2.5.2. Prospect theory 29 2.5.3. Cumulative prospect theory 31 2.6. SUMMARY 35 CHAPTER 3. CONSTRUCT BIDDING DECISION MAKING FOR CONSTRUCTION COMPANY MODEL (BD-MCPM) USING MCPM 37 3.1. IMPORTANT FACTORS INVESTIGATION 37 3.1.1. Questionnaire Analysis 37 3.1.2. Importance factor of Bid/ No Bid Decision 42 3.1.3. Importance factor of Markup size Decision 43 3.1.4. Summary 45 3.2. BID/NO BID DECISION PHASE 46 3.2.1. Bid/no bid influential factors 47 3.2.2. Relative weight of influential factor to bid/no bid decision 47 3.2.3. Risk assessments of evaluators 52 3.2.4. Overall bid/no bid level risk 53 3.3. MARKUP SIZE DETERMINATION PHASE 54 3.3.1. Specified Markup size assignment 55 3.3.2. Influential factor of outcome implementation 56 3.3.3. Relative weight of influential factor to markup size 56 3.3.4. Probability of winning project 57 3.3.5. Utility function of Markup size 61 3.3.6. Probability Weighting Function (PWF) 69 3.3.7. Prospect Value of recent markup size 77 3.3.8. Comparison and Decision making 77 3.4. SUMMARY 78 CHAPTER 4. SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT 79 4.1. PLANNING PHASE 80 4.2. BUILDING PHASE 81 4.2.1. System Analysis 81 4.3. SYSTEM DESIGN 85 4.3.1. System Construction 88 4.3.2. System Testing 88 4.4. DEPLOYING PHASE 88 4.4.1. Input number of evaluator 90 4.4.2. Questionnaire survey for determining relative weight of Bid/no bid factors 90 4.4.3. Risk assessment 90 4.4.4. Show Decision to Bid or not to bid 90 4.4.5. Questionnaire for determining relative weight of Markup size factors 90 4.4.6. Questionnaire for forecasting probability 90 4.4.7. Define Markup Utility Function 91 4.4.8. Define Probability Weighting Function 91 4.4.9. Calculate and Show the Prospect Value and Conclusion 91 CHAPTER 5. SYSTEM DEMONSTRATION 92 5.1. BID/NO BID DECISION 92 5.1.1. System menu 92 5.1.2. Relative weight of Bid/no bid influential factors 92 5.1.3. Risk assessment 94 5.1.4. Overall Bid Value 95 5.2. MARKUP SIZE DECISION 96 5.2.1. Relative weight of Markup size influential factors 96 5.2.2. Probability of winning project 97 5.2.3. Utility Function of Markup size 98 5.2.4. Probability Weighting Function 100 5.2.5. Prospect Value 102 5.3. SUMMARY 103 CHAPTER 6. CASE STUDY 104 6.1. DATA COLLECTION 104 6.2. PHASE 1 -BID/NO BID DECISION 106 6.2.1. Bid/no bid influential factors 106 6.2.2. Relative weight of influential factors of bid/no bid decision 106 6.2.3. Risk assessments of evaluators 116 6.2.4. Overall bid/no bid level risk 117 6.3. MARKUP SIZE DETERMINATION PHASE 118 6.3.1. Markup size assignment 118 6.3.2. Influential factor of outcome implementation 119 6.3.3. Relative weight of influential factor to markup size 119 6.3.4. Probability of outcome implementation 121 6.3.5. Utility function of Markup size 130 6.3.6. Identify Probability Weighting Function (PWF) 132 6.3.7. Prospect Value of specified markup size 134 6.3.8. Comparison and Decision making 135 6.4. SUMMARY 136 CHAPTER 7. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION 137 7.1. CONCLUSION 137 7.2. RECOMMENDATIONS 138 7.3. RECOMMENDATION FOR FURTHER RESEARCH 139

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