營造業屬於高度競爭、高風險、但獲利低的行業，近年來營造業受到缺工、缺料、通膨嚴重的影響，加上專案執行週期較長，營造業者面臨成本變動的風險較其他產業高。在絕大多數的私人工程標案採取最低標決標方式進行招標之前提下，營造廠商在參與投標時，如何擬定一個具有競爭力，同時又可以確保公司在專案執行結算後不致虧損的投標策略至關重要。
本研究建立「不虧損導向之多準則投標決策模式」，旨在協助決策者在考量多競爭對手的情況下，擬定合理的投標策略。此模式以展望賽局理論為基礎，加入不虧損機率分析，針對建築專案工程成本變動之風險進行評估。不虧損機率分析係考量過往採購績效、標案預估成本及可能受到通膨影響之未來價格，來建構實際工程成本的機率分布函數，藉此預測不同競標策略實際執行時後不虧損的機率，以作為調整競標策略採行機率之依據；接著再應用展望賽局理論，分析各競爭對手最可能採行的競標策略。最後根據此模式分析結果，可預測各競爭對手投標價格、及對應之不虧損機率等兩項客觀指標，提供決策者做為擬定投標策略的參考依據。
本研究以一工程案例驗證決策模式於實務應用之可行性，並探討導入不虧損機率分析前後所採行競標策略之差異。在案例中導入不虧損機率分析後，發現多數廠商變得更傾向採用利潤率較高的投標策略，此現象反映了營造業者通常會低估市場物價波動造成工程成本變動之風險，也進一步凸顯了加入不虧損機率分析之模式預測結果，更貼近實務需求，可避免廠商為求得標而訂定過低利潤率，反而導致虧損之風險。

The construction industry is a highly competitive, high-risk, but low-profit industry. In recent years, the construction industry has been significantly impacted by labor and material shortages, along with substantial inflation. Since competitive bidding has long been used as a method for contractor selection, it is crucial for contractor to formulate a bidding strategy that ensures competitiveness while also safeguarding the company from losses.
This study proposes a multi-criteria bidding decision model considering loss-free which can assist decision-makers in taking proper bidding strategies when dealing with multiple competing opponents. The model is based on the Prospect Game Theory Model and integrates loss-free probability analysis to assess risks tied to cost fluctuations. Loss-free probability analysis takes into several factors to construct a probability-density function for actual construction costs, which enables the prediction of the probability of loss-free for different bidding strategies. Finally, this model can provide two reference indicators to decision-makers: a most likely bidding price of each competing opponent and the corresponding probability of loss-free.
The feasibility of the model is verified through a case study, examining the differences in bidding strategies before and after incorporating the loss-free probability analysis. The case study demonstrates that after incorporating the loss-free probability analysis, most contractors tend to choose bidding strategies with higher profit. This phenomenon reflects the tendency of contractors to underestimate the risks of market price fluctuations on project cost variations. From this point of view, the probability of loss-free can be used in bidding decision-making process to avoid the contractor fall prey to negative profits.

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