面對台灣地狹人稠之特性，使其在建築用地取得上較為困難。因應此問題，市場上衍生出了多種之土地開發類型。基於建築投資業具有較長還本期間與資本密集之特性，產生不確定性。本研究針對民間合建、都市更新、聯合開發、購地自建、設定地上權及新市鎮開發等六種土地開發類型，探討各開發類型的開發特性、開發流程、現金流量及是否具有延遲開發之可能。對於可延遲開發之土地開發類型，本研究採用實質選擇權法來進行評價模式建立，以考量透過策略性延遲以提升專案價值之情形，藉以獲得專案之最佳開發時間點與最大收益。對於須立即開發的土地開發類型，本研究以現值法來進行評價模式建立。最後，以六個案例分析來說明六種土地開發類型的建築投資專案評價模式，確實能達到預期成果。本研究之研究成果能作為建築投資業者進行投資決策的參考。

In Taiwan, lands is difficult to obtain because of the limited space; therefore, a variety of land development types have been derived. Based on the characteristics such as long payback period and capital-intensive cause the uncertainty. Therefore, this study focuses on the six types of land development, including Joint Construction, Urban Renewal, Joint Development, Houses and Lands for self-built, Superficies, and New Town Development, explores their characteristics, processes, cash flow and the possibility of deferred development. For those types which can be deferred, in order to obtain the best development time and maximum benefit of the project, this study uses real option to establish the evaluation model to consider the case of strategic delay to enhance the value of the project. On the other hand, for those types which should be develop immediately, this study establish this evaluation model with net present value method. Finally, this study illustrates the six types of land development project investment project evaluation model separately by case studies. The research of this study sure can achieve the expected results and can be used as the reference to the construction companies.

[1] Black, F. S. and M. Schole, ”The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 81, p.14-26(1973)
[2] Cox,J.C, S.,A. Ross and M. Rubinstein“Option Pricing: A Simplified Approach”, Journal of Financial Economics,pp.229-263 (1979)
[3] Myers,S.C.,“Determinants of Corporate Borrowing,”Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 5,pp.146-175 (1977)
[4] Trigeorgis,L. and S.P.Manson, ”Valuing Managerial Flexibility”,Mainland Corporate Finance Journal,No.1,pp.14-21(1987)
[5] Trigeorgis,L.,“A Log-transformed Binomial Numerical Analysis Method for Valuing Complex Multi-Option Investment,”Journal of Financial Economics, vol.7 ,No.1, p.63-81 (1991).
[6] Avinash K. Dixit and Robert S. Pindyck,”Investment Under Uncertainty”,Princeton University Press,Princeton,NJ(1994)
[7] Avinash K. Dixit and Robert S. Pindyck,” The Option Approach to Capital Investment”,Harvard Bussiness Review, Vol.73, No.3, p.105-115(1995).
[8] Trigeorgis, L., “Real Options and Interactions with Financial Flexibility”,Financial Management,Vol.22 Issue 3,p241-250,(1993)
[9] Trigeorgis, L. “Real Options: Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation”, MIT Press, Massachusetts, US. (1996)
[10] Paul A. Samuelson. "A Modern Treatment of the Ricardian Economy: I. The Pricing of Goods and of Labor and Land Services," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(1), pages 1-35. (1959)
[11] T.Copland，T.Koller and J.Murrin,”Valuation：Measuring and MANAging the Value of Companies”,3rd edition,New York：John Wiley and Sons,(2000)
[12] Ching-Hwang Wang, Meng-Tse Tsai, Yu-Chun Huang and Hsu Tse-wei, “An Evaluation Model for Deferred Project Development in Real Estate Investment”, Journal of Applied Mathematics and Information Sciences, Vol.7, No.5, p.2001-2010.(2013)
[13] Titman, ”Urban Land Prices under Uncertainty,” The American Economic Review, Vol.75, No.3, p123-142(1985)
[14] Quigg, June, ”Empirical Testing of Real Option Pricing Models,” The Journal of Finance, No.2, p.621-640.(1993)
[15] 蔡進國，「實質選擇權在土地評價上之應用-傳統評估方法與實質選擇權法之分析比較」，碩士論文，國立台灣大學財務金融研究所。(1997)
[16] 陳奉瑤,「可更新土地開發價值之研究台灣土地研究」，第六卷,第一期,第1-16頁。(2002)
[17] 余尚武、秋雪娥，「BOT專案評價決策支援系統─實質選擇權之應用」，中華管理學報，第四卷，第三期，第1-22頁。(2003)
[18] 梁仁旭，「土地選擇權時間價值比之研究」，都市與計畫，第三十二卷，第四期，第371-386頁。(2005)
[19] 江孟修，「以延遲選擇權建構建築投資決策模式之研究」，碩士論文，國立臺灣科技大學營建工程研究所。(2008)
[20] Makhudu, T., “Real options and property development decision making” , Real Estate Finance, P5-6. (2011)
[21] 許哲維，「以實質選擇權建構建築投資延遲開發評估模式之研究」，博士論文，國立臺灣科技大學營建工程研究所。(2012)
[22] 蔡孟澤，「建築投資專案價值與風險評估之研究」，博士論文，國立臺灣科技大學營建工程研究所。(2013)
[23] 江秉哲，「合建住宅專案延遲開發價值分析之研究」，碩士論文，國立臺灣科技大學營建工程研究所。(2014)
[24] 何泓學，「民間合建契約履約期限不確定下專案開發價值之分析」，碩士論文，國立臺灣科技大學營建工程研究所。(2016)
[25] 林秋瑾、 王健安和張金鶚， 「房地產業對總體經濟活動之影響之分析」，台灣銀行季刊，第三卷第二期，P99-114頁。(1996)