為了因應未來外在環境的挑戰，同時凝聚國家發展共識，過去三十多年來，已開發國家與開發中國家 紛紛投入前瞻計畫的運作，試圖透過一標準化的操作模式，決定國家發展的方向與研發資源投入的重點。然而，過去以4-5年為一週期且大規模的國家前瞻規劃受到許多挑戰，並在導入國家前瞻政策時產生困難，包括：規劃的時間太長，以致趕不上環境的變動、規劃的投入資源龐大，不適合資源有限國家、遇到規劃過程的可操作性與如何扣合後續計畫推動的瓶頸等。此外前瞻規劃對於國家發展而言，技術研發與取得為未來國家競爭優勢。然而面臨包括技術開發的不確定性、外部環境的不確定性與如何保持策略調整彈性，皆是快速變化的環境中，國家前瞻規劃所面臨的挑戰。

本論文分為兩大研究主軸，第一主軸主要探討國家前瞻規劃方法，提出動態模組設計觀點，以克服上述困難，並以台灣產業科技前瞻研究計畫經驗為例，闡述各階段台灣前瞻規劃之過程與成果，同時，探討如何以動態模組設計觀點，進行台灣產業科技前瞻規劃之操作模式。第二主軸主要探討前瞻規劃之技術發展策略，為了有效處理外界環境之不確定性，本文提出「情境策略矩陣」、「情境敏感度矩陣」及「情境敏感度指標」分析方法， 並以2020年台灣新興技術選擇為案例，驗證情境變化下的技術策略分析結果。

In response to future external environmental challenges and gather consensus on national development, developed and developing countries have endeavored on foresight projects respectively over the past thirty years to set national direction of development and allocate R&D resources through a standardized operational model. However, the major national foresight programs with 4-5 year as a cycle have confronted many challenges including prolonged planning time resulting in not keeping up with the ever-changing environment; massive resource investment not suitable for countries with limited resources; and bottlenecks such as operability of planning process connecting to the follow-up project promotion. In addition, in the national foresight planning, technology development and acquisition are two crucial competitive advantages for countries. However, countries confront three challenges, i.e., uncertainties of technology development, uncertainties of external environment, and how to maintain strategic flexibility in carrying out technology strategic planning in the rapid-changing environment.
In this thesis, we have two major topics. In the first topic, we focus on the national foresight methodology and propose a dynamic modular design perspective to overcome such difficulties and demonstrate the process and achievements of foresight planning with 2020 Taiwan Foresight Project as an example. In the second topic, we focus on the technology strategy analysis for the national foresight and propose Scenario Strategy Matrix (SSM)、 Scenario Sensitivity Matrix (SSM) and Scenario Sensitivity Index (SSI) as instruments and discuss the technology development strategy under scenarios change with selection of emerging technologies for Taiwan in 2020 as a case.

中文部分：
1. 工研院IEK，資策會MIC，2008，2015年台灣產業發展願境與策略2008版，經濟部政府出版品。
2. 資策會MIC，2011，產業科技前瞻研究方法論精選，經濟部政府出版品。
3. 資策會MIC，2011，產業科技關鍵技術基礎知識彙編，經濟部政府出版品。
4. 資策會MIC、工研院2011，臺灣產業科技前瞻研究計畫系列叢書，經濟部政府出版品。

英文部分：
1. Albright, R.E., Kappel, T.A., 2003. Roadmapping in the Corporation, Research-Technology Management Vol. 46 (2), pp31-40.
2. Amer, M., Daim, T.U., 2010. Application of Technology Roadmaps for Renewable Energy Sector, Technological Forecasting and Social Change Vol. 77, pp.1355-1370.
3. Borjeson, L., Hojer, M., Dreborg, K.H., Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G., 2006. Scenario Types and Techniques: Towards a User’s Guide, Futures Vol. 38, pp.723-739.
4. Battistella, C. and De Toni, A. F. 2011. A methodology of technological foresight: A proposal and field study, Technological Forecasting and Social Change Vol. 78, pp.1029-1048.
5. Cariola M. and Rolfo S. 2004. Evolution in the rationales of foresight in Europe, Futures, Vol.36(10), pp.1063-1075.
6. Cuhls K., Beyer-Kutznerb, A., Ganzc, W. and Warnke, P. 2009. The methodology combination of a national foresight process in Germany. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.76, pp.1187-1197.
7. Chen T.Y., Yu, O.S., Hsu, G.J., Hsu, F.M. and Sung, W.N. 2009. Renewable energy technology portfolio planning with scenario analysis: a case study for Taiwan. Energy Policy, Vol.37, pp.2900-2906.
8. Coates, J., Durance, P. and Godet, M. 2010. Strategic Foresight Issue: Introduction, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.77, pp.1423-1425.
9. Cooper R. G., Edgett, S. J. and Kleinschmidt E.J. 2001. Portfolio management for new product development: results of an industry practices study, R&D Management, Vol.4 (31), pp. 361.
10. Courtney, H. 2001. 20/20 Foresight: Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business Press.
11. Cuhls, K. 2003. From Forecasting to Foresight Processes-New Participative Foresight Activities in Germany, Journal of Forecasting, Vol.22, pp.93-111.
12. Cunha, M.P. and Chia, R., 2007. Using Teams to Avoid Peripheral Blindness. Long Range Planning Vol.40, pp.559-573.
13. Eriksson E.A. and Weber K.M. 2008. Adaptive Foresight: Navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.75, pp.462-482.
14. Finnish Foresight Forum (in Finnish), available at: www.ennakointifoorumi.fi; www.rpm.tkk.fi/explorer/html/index_ennakointifoorumi.html, 2009.
15. Future Impacts of ICTs on Environmental Sustainability Project, available at: http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu/publications/pub.cfm?id=1208, 2009.
16. Georghiou, L. 2009. Third generation foresight: integrating the socio-economic dimension.
17. Havas, A. 2003 Evolving Foresight in a Small Transition, Journal of Forecasting Vol. 22, pp.179-201.
18. Hsu, C.W., 2005. Formation of industrial innovation mechanisms through the research institute. Technovation, Vol.25, pp.1317–1329.
19. Hsu, C.W. and Chiang, H.C. 2001. The government strategy for the upgrading of industrial technology in Taiwan. Technovation, Vol.21, pp.123–132.
20. Huss, W.R. and Honton, E.J. 1987. Scenario planning: what style should you use. Long Range Planning, Vol.20(4), pp.21–29.
21. Harper, J.C., Cuhls, K., Georghiou, L. and Johnston, R. 2008. Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, Vol.20(3), pp.267-269.
22. Kahn, H. 1962, Thinking the Unthinkable, New York: Horizon.
23. Konnola, T, Scapolo, F., Desruelle, P. and Mu, R. 2011. Foresight tackling societal challenges: Impacts and implications on policy-making. Futures, Vol.41, pp.252-264.
24. Konnola, T., Ahlqvist, T., Eerola, A., Kivisaari, S., and Koivisto, R. 2009. Management of foresight portfolio: analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organization. Technology Analysis and Strategic Management, Vol.21, No.3, pp.381-405.
25. Konnola, T., Brummer V., and Salo A. 2007. Diversity in foresight – insights from the fostering of innovation ideas. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.74, pp.608–626.
26. Konnola, T., Salo A., and Brummer V. (forthcoming) Foresight for European coordination: developing national priorities for the forest based sector technology platform. International Journal of Technology Management , (special issue on technology foresight)
27. Kostoff, R.N., Schaller, R.R., 2001. Science and technology roadmaps, IEEE Transactions of Engineering Management, Vol.48 (2), pp.132–143.
28. Lee, S. and Par, Y. 2005. Customization of Technology Roadmaps According to Roadmapping Purpose: Overall Process and Detailed Modules, Technological Forecasting and Social Changes, Vol.72, pp.567-583.
29. Lee, S., Kang, S. and Park,Y. 2007. Technology roadmapping for R&D planning: The case of the Korean parts and materials industry. Technovation, Vol.27, pp.433–445.
30. Linstone, H. A. 2011. Three eras of technology foresight. Technovation, Vol.31, pp.69–76.
31. Linneman, R.E. and Klein, H.E. 1985. Usings cenarios in strategic decision making. Business Horizon, Vol.45(1), pp.64–74.
32. Maidique, A.M. and Patch, P. 1988. Corporate Strategy Technology Policy. Mass Pitman Publishing Inc., pp.232–342.
33. Markley, O. 2011. A New Methodology for Anticipating STEEP Surprises. Technological Forecasting & Social Changes, Vol.78, pp.1079-1097.
34. Mendonca, S., Cunha, M.P., Kaivo-oja, J. and Ruff, F. 2004. Wild cards, Weak Signals and Organizational Improvisation. Futures, Vol.36, pp.201-218.
35. Mendonca, S., Cunha, M.P., Ruff, F. and Kaivo-oja, J. 2009. Venturing into the Wildness: Preparing for Wild Cards in the Civil Aircraft and Asset-Management Industries. Long Range Planning, Vol.42, pp.23-41.
36. Nordic ICT foresight, available at: http://www.vtt.fi/inf/pdf/publications/2007/P653.pdf, 2009.
37. Schoen, A., Konnola, T., Warnke, P., Barre, R., Kuhlmann, S. 2011. Tailoring Foresight to filed specificities. Futures, Vol.43, pp.232-242.
38. Saritas, O. and Oner, M.A. 2003. Systemic analysis of UK foresight results Joint application of integrated management model and roadmapping. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.71, pp.27-65.
39. Phaal, R., Farrukh, C. and Robert, D. 2004. Technology Roadmapping-A Planning Framework for Evolution and Revolution, Technological Forecasting and Social Changes, Vol.71, pp.5-26.
40. Porter, M.E. 1985. Competitive Strategy: Techniques for analyzing Industires and Competitors. The Free Persss, New York.
41. Raynor, M.E. 2007. The Strategy Paradox: Why Committing to Success Leads to Failure. Crown Business.
42. Ringland, G. 1998. Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future. Wiley, London.
43. Saritas, O. and Smith, J.E. 2011. The Big Picture – Trends, Drivers, Wild Cards, Discontinuities and Weak Signals. Futures, Vol.43, pp.292-312.
44. Saritas, O. and Aylen, J. 2010. Using Scenario for Roadmapping: The case of Clean Production, Technological Forecasting and Social Changes, Vol.77, pp.1061-1075.
45. Schoemaker, P.J.H. 1995. Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review Vol.40(4), pp.25–39.
46. Schwartz, P. 1991. The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. New York: Currency-Doubleday.
47. Shimizu, K. And Hitt, M.A. 2004. Strategic flexibility: Organizational preparedness to reverse ineffective strategic decisions, Academy of Management Executive, Vol.18, No.4, pp.44-59.
48. Strauss, J.D., Radnor, M., 2004. Roadmapping for Dynamic and Uncertain Environments. Research Technology Management, March-April, pp.51-57.
49. Technology Futures Analysis Methods Working Groups (TFAMWG), 2004. Technology Futures Analysis: Toward Integration of the Filed and New Methods. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.71, pp.287-303.
50. Van der Heijden, K. 1996. Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. New York: Wiley.
51. Van Notten, P., Sleegers, A.M. and Van Asselt, M. 2005. The Future Shocks: On Discontinuity and Scenario Development. Technological Forecasting & Social Changes, Vol.72, pp.175-194.
52. Varum, C.A. and Melo, C. 2010. Directions in Scenario Planning Literature – A review of the Past Decades. Futures, Vol.42, pp.355-369.
53. Wack, P. 1985a. Scenarios: uncharted water ahead. Harvard Business Review, Vol.63 (5), pp.72-89.
54. Wack, P. 1985b. Scenarios: shooting the rapids. Harvard Business Review, Vol.63 (6), pp.139-150.
55. Yasunaga,Y., Watanabe, M. and Korenaga. M. 2008. Application of technology roadmaps to governmental innovation policy for promoting technology convergence. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.76, pp.61-79.
56. Yu, O. 2006. Technology Portfolio Planning and Management. Spring Publisher, Berlin.