研究生: |
王感天 Gandhi - Maruli Tua Manalu |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
根據兩因子高階模糊趨勢邏輯關係群及粒子群最佳化技術以作模糊預測之新方法 Fuzzy Forecasting Based on Two-Factors High-Order Fuzzy-Trend Logical Relationship Groups and Particle Swarm Optimization Techniques |
指導教授: |
陳錫明
Shyi-Ming Chen |
口試委員: |
李惠明
none 呂永和 none 萬瑛東 none |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
電資學院 - 資訊工程系 Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering |
論文出版年: | 2011 |
畢業學年度: | 99 |
語文別: | 英文 |
論文頁數: | 74 |
外文關鍵詞: | two-factors high-order fuzzy-trend logical relat, particle swarm optimization techniques |
相關次數: | 點閱:194 下載:0 |
分享至: |
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
Fuzzy time series have been widely used in solving forecasting problem, such as the enrollments forecasting, the temperature forecasting, the stock index forecasting, the exchange rates forecasting, …, etc. Particle swarm optimization is a swarm-based optimization method that can find a near optimal solution for any kind of optimization problems. Therefore, if we can use it appropriately to determine the optimal proportion of the data in the current dates in calculating the data in the next date, we can get a nearly-optimal solution. In this thesis, we present a new method for fuzzy forecasting based on two-factors high-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups and particle swarm optimization techniques. First, we fuzzify the historical training data of the main factor and the secondary factor, respectively, to form two-factors high-order fuzzy logical relationships. Then, we group the two-factors high-order fuzzy logical relationships into two-factors high-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups. Then, we obtain the optimal weighting vectors for each fuzzy-trend logical relationship group by using particle swarm optimization techniques to perform the forecasting. We also apply the proposed method to forecast the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) and the NTD/USD exchange rates. The experimental results show that the proposed method gets higher average forecasting accuracy rates than the existing methods.
[1] S. M. Chen, “Forecasting enrollments based on fuzzy time series,” Fuzzy Sets and Systems, vol. 81, no. 3, pp. 311–319, 1996.
[2] S. M. Chen, “Forecasting enrollments based on high-order fuzzy time series,” Cybernetics and Systems, vol. 33, no. 1, pp. 1-16, 2002.
[3] S. M. Chen and C. D. Chen, “TAIEX forecasting based on fuzzy time series and fuzzy variation groups,” IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, vol. 19, no. 1, 2011.
[4] S. M. Chen and N. Y. Chung, “Forecasting enrollments of students by using high-order fuzzy time series and genetic algorithm,” International Journal of Intelligent Systems, vol. 21, no. 5, pp. 485-501, 2006.
[5] S. M. Chen and C. C. Hsu, “A new method to forecast enrollments using fuzzy time series,” International Journal of Applied Science and Engineering, vol. 2, no. 4, pp. 234-244, 2004.
[6] S. M. Chen and J. R. Hwang, “Temperature prediction using fuzzy time series,” IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics-Part B: Cybernetics, vol. 30, no. 2, pp. 263-275, 2000.
[7] S. M. Chen and N. Y. Wang, “Fuzzy forecasting based on fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups,” IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics-Part B: Cybernetics, vol. 40, no. 5, pp. 1343-1358, 2010.
[8] R. C. Eberhart and Y. Shi, “Comparing inertia weights and constriction factors in particle swarm optimization,” in Proceedings of the 2000 Congress on Evolutionary Computation, California, USA, pp. 84-88, 2000.
[9] K. H. Huarng, “Effective lengths of intervals to improve forecasting in fuzzy time series,” Fuzzy Sets and Systems, vol. 123, no. 3, pp. 387-394, 2001.
[10] K. Huarng and T. H. K. Yu, “The application of neural networks to forecast fuzzy time series,” Physica A, vol. 363, no. 2, pp. 481-491, 2006.
[11] K. H. Huarng, T. H. K. Yu, and Y. W. Hsu, “A multivariate heuristic model for fuzzy time-series forecasting,” IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics-Part B: Cybernetics, vol. 37, no. 4, pp. 836-846, 2007.
[12] J. R. Hwang, S. M. Chen, and C. H. Lee, “Handling forecasting problems using fuzzy time series,” Fuzzy Sets and Systems, vol. 100, no. 2, pp. 217-228, 1998.
[13] J. Kennedy and R. Eberhart, “Particle swarm Optimization,” in Proceedings of the 1995 IEEE International Conference on Neural Networks, Perth, Australia, vol. 4, pp. 1942-1948, 1995.
[14] I. H. Kuo, S. J. Horng, Y. H. Chen, R. S. Run, T. W. Kao, R. J. Chen, J. L. Lai, T. L. Lin, “Forecasting TAIFEX based on fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization,” Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 37, no. 2, pp. 1494-1502, 2010.
[15] I. H. Kuo, S. J. Horng, T. W. Kao, T. L. Lin, C. L. Lee, Y. Pan, “An improved method for forecasting enrollments based on fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization,” Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 36, no. 3, Part 2, pp. 6108–6117, 2009.
[16] L. W. Lee, L. H. Wang, S. M. Chen, and Y. H. Leu, “Handling forecasting problem based on two-factors high-order fuzzy time series,” IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 468-477, 1996.
[17] Y. Leu, C. P. Lee, Y. Z. Jou, “A distance-based fuzzy time series model for exchange rates forecasting,” Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 36, no. 4, pp. 8107-8114, 2009.
[18] Q. Song and B. S. Chissom, “Forecasting enrollments with fuzzy time series-Part I,” Fuzzy Sets and Systems, vol. 54, no. 1, pp. 1–9, 1993.
[19] Q. Song and B. S. Chissom, “Forecasting enrollments with fuzzy time series-Part II,” Fuzzy Sets and Systems, vol. 62, no. 1, pp. 1–8, 1994.
[20] Q. Song and B. S. Chissom, “Fuzzy time series and its models,” Fuzzy Sets and Systems, vol. 54, no. 3, pp. 269-277, 1993.
[21] N. Y. Wang and S. M. Chen, “Temperature prediction and TAIFEX forecasting based on automatic clustering techniques and two-factors high-order fuzzy time series,” Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 36, no. 2, pp. 2143-2154, 2009.
[22] N. Y. Wang, S. M. Chen, and J. S. Pan, “Forecasting enrollments based on automatic clustering techniques and fuzzy logical relationships,” Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 36, no. 8, pp. 11070-11076, 2009.
[23] H. K. Yu, “Weighted fuzzy time-series models for TAIEX forecasting,” Physica A, vol. 349, no. 3-4, pp. 609-624, 2004.
[24] T. H. K. Yu and K. H. Huarng, “A bivariate fuzzy time series model to forecast the TAIEX,” Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 34, no. 4, pp. 2945-2952, 2008.
[25] T. H. K. Yu and K. H. Huarng, “Corrigendum to “A bivariate fuzzy time series model to forecast the TAIEX” [Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 34, no. 4, pp. 2945-2952, 2010],” Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 37, no. 7, pp. 5529, 2010.
[26] L. A. Zadeh, “Fuzzy sets,” Information and Control, vol. 8, pp. 338-353, 1965.