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研究生: 張羽孜
Yu-Tzu Chang
論文名稱: 服務代理商保修詐欺問題之賽局理論分析
Game Theoretic Analysis of Service Agent Warranty Fraud
指導教授: 林希偉
Shi-Woei Lin
口試委員: 葉瑞徽
王敏
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 工業管理系
Department of Industrial Management
論文出版年: 2020
畢業學年度: 108
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 46
中文關鍵詞: 保修詐欺賽局理論保修供應商服務代理商保修
外文關鍵詞: Warranty Fraud, Game Theory, Warranty Provider, Service Agent, Warranty
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  • 保固維修是企業保持競爭力的重要因素,它既是公司對產品性能的保證和承諾,也是影響消費者購買決策的重要因素。保修服務可以分為原廠維修或者委託外包,由於製造商無法直接監控服務代理商且雙方目標不同,所以外包時容易產生詐欺問題,導致公司的保修成本大幅提升,因此保修詐欺已成為保修管理的嚴重議題。
    保修供應商為降低保修詐欺發生的可能性,會制定懲罰與審查機制以進行管理。本研究使用賽局理論探討服務代理商與保修供應商之間的保修詐欺問題,在賽局中,服務代理商在決定申報費用時會考量懲罰率,並且在獲得額外利益與被審查到欺騙行為時所付出的代價之間做權衡,而保修供應商也會根據服務代理商的申報費用以及審查成本來決定審查機率的分配。本研究建構二個賽局模型並求其均衡解,基本模型中假設所有的服務代理商均有動機透過保修詐欺來獲取額外的財務利益,擴展模型則加入誠實的服務代理商,以瞭解存在誠實服務代理商時對於保修供應商與服務代理商雙方互動的衝擊,並透過比較靜態分析與數值分析探討外生變數對於雙方決策的影響。本研究所推導的均衡解可提供保修供應商與服務代理商制定合約時之參考依據,保修供應商也能預期調整預算和審查計劃時,服務代理商行為的改變。

    關鍵字:保修詐欺、賽局理論、保修供應商、服務代理商、保修


    The warranty that can signify a company’s commitment to the performance of products has become one of the key elements in the consumer purchase decision-making process. Warranty management thus becomes a critical business function. However, when a warranty provider outsources the service to external service agents, service agents might conduct fraudulent activities to obtain extra financial benefits, because two parties have different interests and asymmetric information. For reducing the adverse effect of warranty frauds, this study formulates a game-theoretical model to design mechanisms (including punishment and audit schedule) for warranty management. In particular, the service agent will make a decision on billing price after considering the penalty and audit schedule announced by the warranty provider. Two models were constructed and solved for equilibrium in this study. The basic model assumes that all the service agents have the motivation to conduct fraudulent activities. The extended model assumes that there are some honest service agents existed. Sensitivity and numerical analyses were also conducted to investigate the effects of different exogenous variables on the equilibrium. The results of this study could help developing appropriate guidelines for planning a warranty fraud reduction initiative and for addressing implementation challenges.

    Keywords: Warranty Fraud, Game Theory, Warranty Provider, Service Agent, Warranty

    摘要 i ABSTRACT ii 致謝 iii 目錄 iv 圖目錄 vi 表目錄 vii 第一章、 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研究目的 3 1.3 論文架構 3 第二章、 文獻回顧 5 2.1 保固維修及相關法規 5 2.2 保固維修管理的詐欺問題 6 2.3 犯罪經濟學及賽局理論在犯罪經濟學的應用 9 第三章、 基本模型—考量所有服務代理商均可能詐欺 12 3.1 保修供應商與服務代理商的成本收益模型 12 3.1.1 賽局參與者的設定與策略 13 3.1.2 服務代理商的決策問題 13 3.1.3 保修供應商的決策問題 14 3.2 基本模型之均衡解 15 3.3 比較靜態分析 17 3.4 數值分析 18 3.4.1 參數設定 18 3.4.2 數值分析結果 19 第四章、 擴展模型—考量誠實的服務代理商 24 4.1 加入誠實代理商之模型 24 4.2 數值分析 26 4.2.1 參數設定 26 4.2.2 數值分析結果 27 第五章、 結論與建議 32 5.1 結論 32 5.2 研究限制與未來建議 33 參考文獻 34

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