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研究生: 曾志豪
Chin-Hao Tseng
論文名稱: 金融控股公司股價報酬是否受到不動產市場影響
Are Financial Holding Companies affected by Real Estate Market?
指導教授: 張光第
Guang-Di Chang
口試委員: 黃彥聖
Yen-Sheng Huang
張琬喻
Wan-Yu Chang
廖咸興
Hsien-Hsing Liao
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2005
畢業學年度: 93
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 34
中文關鍵詞: 不動產市場金融控股公司三因子模型事件研究法風險
外文關鍵詞: Financial Holding Companies, Real Estate market, Risk., Event Study, Three Index Model
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  • 本文研究目的為了發現金融控股公司的股價報酬是否受到不動產市場的波動所影響。不動產市場發展的融資過程主要經由金融機構提供不同種的抵押貸款所至。金融控股公司也許會受到這些融資過程所影響,原因是金融控股公司擁有了銀行、保險公司、證券公司,這三家主要的子公司。本文主要的目的就是要測試金融控股公司是否會受到不動產市場交易的影響。
    實證研究中指出一般的商業銀行與保險公司的股價報酬顯著的受到不動產市場的影響。 He, Myer and Webb(1996)指出商銀銀行本身與其控股公司的股價顯著的跟不動產市場相關。本文含蓋了兩個主要的研究方法。第一、我們使用He ,Myer and Webb(1996)的三因子模型來測試金融控股公司跟不動產市場兩者之間的影響。第二、我們採用事件研究法來找出,金融控股公司之不動產交易事件的發生是否讓該金融控股公司有短期的異常報酬的產生。
    我們使用三因子模型的結果顯示,金融控股公司也許無法分散或降低來自不動產市場的風險,這與之前國內的研究論文有所抵觸。這結果也建議金融控股公司應該進行進一步的整併。而事件研究法的結果顯示,當金融控股公司宣告出售或買進不動產時,該金融控股公司會有短期的異常報酬產生。


    The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between the stock returns of financial holding companies (FHCs) and the transactions of real estate markets. Real estate development has been financed by financial institutions with different mortgage loans. FHCs might be affected by the process, since FHCs are mainly consisted of subsidiaries, such as banks, insurance companies, and securities firms. It is tested in this paper if the stock returns and the operation of FHCs are related to the transactions of real estate markets.
    Empirical studies indicate that stock returns of banks and insurance companies are indeed affected by real estate markets. He, Myer and Webb (1996) argue that the returns of bank holding companies are significantly related to real estate markets. This study conducted two tests. First, we apply the model derived from He, Myer and Webb (1996) to test if FHCs are affected by real estate markets. Second, event study is used to find out if real estate transactions have impact on the abnormal returns of FHCs.
    Our findings show that Taiwan’s FHCs may not diversify enough to lower risks from real estate markets, which is contrary to pervious studies. It is suggested that FHCs be further consolidated. Results from event study show that the abnormal returns of FHCs are significant on and after the announcement of real estate related events.

    Contents CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION1 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW3 2.1 BANKS3 2.2 INSURANCE COMPANIES4 2.3 FINANCIAL HOLDING COMPANIES5 2.4 EVENT STUDY7 CHAPTER 3 DATA DESCRIPTION AND METHODOLOGY10 3.1 DATA DESCRIPTION10 3.2 VARIABLE DEFINITION10 3.3 EVENT DEFINITION12 3.4 METHOLOGY13 3.4.1 THREE INDEX MODEL13 3.4.2 EVENT STUDY14 3.4.3 STATISTIC TEST OF ABNORMAL RETURN16 CHAPTER 4 EMPIRICAL RESULTS 17 4.1 CORRELATION ANALYSIS17 4.2 RESULT FROM THREE INDEX MODEL18 4.3 MULTI-COLLINEARITY ANALYSIS22 4.4 AUTOCORRELATION ANALYSIS22 4.5 RESULTS FROM EVENT STUDY22 4.6 RESEARCH LIMIT28 CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTION29 5.1 CONCLUSIONS 29 5.2 SUGGESTION30 REFERENCE31 APPENDIX34 LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1 ANNOUNCEMENT OF REAL ESTATE TRANSACTIONS10 TABLE 2 CORRELATION ANALYSIS BETWEEN FHCS AND VARIABLES17 TABLE 3 RESULTS FROM THREE INDEX MODEL 18 TABLE 4 OVERALL FINANCIAL HOLDING COMPANIES PORTFOLIO RESULTS19 TABLE 5 RELATED FINANCIAL HOLDING COMPANIES PORTFOLIO RESULTS20 TABLE 6 NONRELATED FINANCIAL HOLDING COMPANIES PORTFOLIO RESULTS21 TABLE 7 MULTI-COLLINEARITY OF ALL FHCS FROM THREE INDEX MODEL.22 TABLE 8 11 DAYS SAR AND SCAR ANALYSIS24 TABLE9 9 DAYS SAR AND SCAR ANALYSIS25 TABLE10 7 DAYS SAR AND SCAR ANALYSIS26 TABLE11 5 DAYS SAR AND SCAR ANALYSIS27 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE1 11 DAYS EVENT PERIOD OF SAR AND SCAR RETURNS24 FIGURE2 9 DAYS EVENT PERIOD OF SAR AND SCAR RETURNS25 FIGURE3 7 DAYS EVENT PERIOD OF SAR AND SCAR RETURNS26 FIGURE4 5 DAYS EVENT PERIOD OF SAR AND SCAR RETURNS27

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