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研究生: 陳思涵
Shih-han Chen
論文名稱: 行為財務:不同風險情況下面臨獲利和損失之決策行為
Behavioral Finance: Decisions while Gaining and Losing in Different Possibilities
指導教授: 徐中琦
Jon-chi Shyu
口試委員: 劉邦典
Pang-tien Lieu
梁榮輝
Jung-hui Liang
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 管理學院MBA
School of Management International (MBA)
論文出版年: 2013
畢業學年度: 101
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 70
中文關鍵詞: 框架效應孤離效應反射效應確定性效應展望理論行為財務
外文關鍵詞: Framing effect, Isolation effect, Reflection effect, Certainty effect, Behavioral Finance, Prospect Theory
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  • 有鑑於1979和1984年Kahneman和Tverskey對於展望理論的實驗,本研究欲探究人在面對獲利和損失的不同風險情況下之偏好和決策行為,以發放問卷,透過正面和反面情境的問答方式和多項人口統計變數,觀察台灣多數人是否也存在行為偏誤,而不同人口統計變數是否會影響各個問題的抉擇偏好。研究結果發現,台灣人在面臨獲利時亦有風險趨避的傾向,對於損失則也會趨向風險追求;大多數人常常會忽略較前些時間發生的事件,只考慮到較近的選擇,有短視的現象。而人口統計方面,在本研究所提及的偏誤中,特別針對35歲以下之年輕人,女性比男性有較高程度的偏誤;國中以下和高中、職的受測者比大專院校和研究所以上的受測者有較高程度的偏誤;學生和軍、公、教人員在面臨危機時較為保守;投資組合為中度和高度風險者,在面臨損失或危機的情況下,較未投資者和低度風險者更容易傾向風險追求。


    In light of the experiments supporting “Prospect Theory” of Kahneman and Tverskey in 1979 and 1984 respectively, this study intends to figure out the preference while people gain or lose in different possibilities. Through the positive and negative questions, the study would find out if Taiwanese people also have behavioral bias, and if the demographic variables changes the choice of each questions. The study result turns out to be: (1) Taiwanese people tend to be risk aversion in profit situation, and have tendency of risk seeking under losses. (2) Most people ignore things happened earlier; that means people are shortsighted. Moreover, from the demographic variables, especially for people under 35, (1) Females have more extent of bias mentioned in this study than males. (2) People at primary and high School of education have more extent of bias than people at high education. (3) Students and government workers are more conservative than people in others occupation when facing a crisis. (4) People holing middle and high risk portfolio have higher tendency to be risk seekers than people who do not invest or hold low risk portfolio while encounter losses or crisis.

    摘要 I Abstract II 誌謝 III 目錄 IV 表目錄 V 圖目錄 VI 第一章緒論 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研究目的 1 1.3 研究流程架構 2 第二章文獻探討 4 2.1 展望理論 4 2.2 展望理論之延伸 10 2.3 相關研究實證 13 第三章研究方法 18 3.1 問卷設計 18 3.2 研究架構 22 3.3 統計分析方法 22 第四章研究結果 26 4.1 樣本資料結構分析 26 4.2 偏誤效應問題分析 28 4.3 交叉分析和卡方檢定 34 4.4 迴歸分析 35 第五章結論與建議 48 5.1 結論 48 5.2 投資建議 49 5.3 研究限制與建議 51 參考文獻 52 附錄一:研究問卷 57 附錄二:交叉分析和卡方檢定 60

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