本研究使用台灣上市櫃公司為研究對象，其盈餘預測日的樣本期間為2000年至2016年的年盈餘年盈餘預測資料，究探討金融分析機構（證券商）的盈餘預測的品質與金融分析機構（證券商）的聲譽的關係，並探討融分析機構盈餘預測品質的趨勢及金融分析機構（證券商）的聲譽與承銷市場的冷熱的交互作用，並驗證資訊揭露評鑑系統及中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會證券投資信託事業證券投資顧問事業及他事業兼營者從事證券投資分析業務人員行為準則的有效性。希望藉此投資人可以透過金融分析機構在股票市場上的交易量找到盈餘預測品質較加的金融分析機構（證券商），來決定相關的投資策略。

本研究實證結果發現，每週盈餘預測偏誤（Bias）的趨勢，整體而言為下降的趨勢，其符合O'brien (1988)及Brown (1997)的文獻指出的論點相同，分析師對長期的盈餘預測傾向較樂觀，而短期的盈餘預測傾向較悲觀。而每週盈餘預測精確度（Error）趨勢，結果與Elton, Gruber, and Gultekin (1984)、Calderon (1993)、Lim (2001)及Barron, Byard, and Liang (2013)的文獻所提出的論點一致，分析師有walk-down的趨勢，離盈餘實際公告日的日子與盈餘預測精確度成正向關係。

本研究實證結果亦顯示，金融分析機構（證券商）的聲譽與盈餘預測偏誤（Bias）呈現反向關係；金融分析機構（證券商）的聲譽與盈餘預測精確度（Error）呈現反向關係。而資訊揭露評鑑系統及中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會證券投資信託事業證券投資顧問事業及他事業兼營者從事證券投資分析業務人員行為準有效增加盈餘預測品質。最後發現聲譽較好的金融分析機構（證券商）在承銷市場熱絡時，其盈餘預測相較在承銷市場冷清來的樂觀及不精確；而聲譽較不好的金融分析機構（證券商）在承銷市場熱絡時，其盈餘預測相較在承銷市場冷清來的樂觀及不精確。

This research uses the Taiwan’s company as the sample, the sample’s period is 2000 to 2016. The research studies the relationship between earnings forecast quality and the reputation of financial analyst’s institutions, the trend of earnings forecast quality, the interaction between the reputation of financial analyst’s institutions and the volume of underwriting market, and verify the relative measures that to improve earnings forecast quality are effective or not.

The empirical results of this study show that the trend of weekly earnings forecast bias is declining as a whole, which is consistent with O'Brien's (1988) and Brown (1997) literature that the earnings forecast tend to be more optimistic in the long-term, while the short-term earnings forecast tend to be more pessimistic. The weekly earnings forecast accuracy trend is consistent with the arguments presented by the literature of Elton, Gruber, and Gultekin (1984), Calderon (1993), Lim (2001) and Barron, Byard, and Liang (2013) that are positive relationship between the gap that between actual earnings date and predict announcement date and the earnings forecast accuracy.

The empirical results of this study also show that the reputation of the financial analysis institution is inversely related to the earnings forecast bias; the reputation of the financial analysis institution is inversely related to the earnings forecast accuracy. And, the the relative measures that to improve earnings forecast quality are effective. Finally, it is found that the financial analysis institutions (securities firms) that having good reputation are more optimistic and inaccurate when the underwriting market is hot. When the market is hot, the financial analysis institutions (securities firms) that having not so good reputation its earnings forecast is also more optimistic and inaccurate.

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